Monday Morning Brief (1-3 November 2024)

Russia conducted a nuclear exercise, Moscow hints at a Russian-Iranian strategic partnership, and new attacks on Israel. Plus more...

Author

Nick
November 04, 2024

Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals

Good morning,

This is your Monday morning brief. Today we will discuss an update to US-UK naval integration, a Russian nuclear exercise, Moscow’s push for a strategic partnership with Iran, and the Iranian Supreme Leader’s pledge to strike Israel again.

Give yourself about 5 minutes for this one.

Reporting Period: 1-3 November 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

1. The US and UK navies updated their strategic naval charter. The DCS promotes the bilateral coordination and collaboration of US and UK naval forces. Leaders gathered at the Pentagon to assess the charter’s direction and made changes to reflect future focuses.

2. Russia conducted nuclear drills. The drills included some missile launches and were designed to test Russia’s response to an attack by a perceived aggressor (i.e. NATO).

3. Russia said it will sign a strategic partnership agreement with Iran before 2024 ends. It is uncertain what the deal may include, but it is possible that it could include a mutual defense pact similar to the one Russia signed with North Korea.

4. Iran’s Supreme Leader vowed to retaliate against Israel and the US. At the same time, Hezbollah launched a missile barrage on northern Israel. It is uncertain what Iran’s new attacks will entail, especially since its defense and industrial position remains weakened.

🇺🇸 US Elections Tomorrow 🇺🇸 

Election Day is 5 November 2024. Americans have the opportunity to go to the polls and cast their ballot for Presidential, Congressional, and local candidates.

This year, 33 states also have Senator seats up for election. Want to know if your state is included? View the Senate election map here.

🇺🇸 🇬🇧 

US, UK Navies Renew Strategic Charter

On 30 October, US Navy and Marine Corps leaders met with the UK Royal Navy’s First Sea Lord and Chief of Naval Staff to discuss components of the ongoing “Delivering Combined Seapower” (DCS) charter. The charter is a bilateral, tri-service strategic charter that promotes the coordination, collaboration, and operational integration of US and UK naval forces.

Background: The DCS was first signed in 2014 and has been the basis for US and UK naval integration. It has since incorporated other strategic planning concepts, such as the Marine Corps’ “Force Design 2030” and the Navy’s “Navigation Plan.”

During the meeting at the Pentagon, each service’s leadership conducted an “Azimuth Check” to reign in the DCS’s focus on key strategic efforts:

  • Carrier strike

  • Underwater superiority

  • Littoral operations

  • Future integrated warfighting

Why This Matters

The DCS is the newest foundation of US and UK strategic cooperation. The DCS enhances some key efforts:

  • Deterrence. Due to overlapping strategic interests in the Atlantic and Pacific, the DCS enhance western deterrence against adversaries like Russia and China.

  • Interoperability. The integration of US and UK forces through frequent joint exercises ensures effective cooperation during wartime or crisis.

  • Crisis Response. Joint training, interests, and mission sets means each the US and UK can rely on the other to respond to strategic crises or emergencies.

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🇷🇺 🇺🇦 🇺🇸 

Putin Oversees Nuclear Drills, Simulates Retaliatory Strikes Against NATO

On 29 October, Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw the execution of a nuclear weapons employment exercise. The exercises were intended to simulate “strategic offensive forces launching a massive nuclear strike in response to a nuclear strike by the enemy.”

Why This Matters

Putin has, throughout the war in Ukraine, threatened the use of nuclear weapons in the event of greater or direct NATO involvement in the conflict.

Putin reassured observers that the use of nuclear weapons is Russia’s “ultimate, extreme measure of ensuring its security.” While Putin’s rhetoric makes his nuclear threats seem like a “last resort” option, his other warning blur those lines.

For example, Putin stated that if the US and NATO allow Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes with western-supplied systems, such as HIMARS or ATACMS, that he would consider it direct involvement by NATO.

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Russia And Iran To Sign Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement

On 31 October, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Russia and Iran will sign a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty before the end of 2024. Lavrov said the treaty will include cooperation on defense.

Russia and Iran will pursue closer ties despite Iran’s commitment to a “definitive, painful” retaliation against Israel. Iran says it may strike Israel before US elections on 5 November.

Why This Matters

Lavrov did not provide details on what the treaty will include. Observers speculate that it is likely to include a mutual defense clause similar to the one signed by Russia and North Korea in June.

Since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia’s global posture has grown through expanded ties with China, Iran, and North Korea. This collaboration allows these nations to proliferate a global status quo characterized by hybrid warfare and gray zone competition.

By enhancing mutual deterrence and defense cooperation, this global alliance limits the likelihood of swift, decisive, or direct intervention by the US or US-led coalitions, effectively globalizing risks that would otherwise remain regional.

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🇮🇷 🇱🇧 🇮🇱 

Iranian Supreme Leader Vows Strikes On Israel, Hezbollah Launches Missiles

On 2 November, in a video released by Iranian state media, the Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that the US and Israel “will definitely receive a crushing response” to the recent Israeli strikes across Iran as well as continued IDF operations in Gaza and Lebanon.

The timeframe and severity of Iran’s planned retaliation is uncertain. Previous assessments of Israel’s strikes on Iran show significant damage to Iranian military bases near Tehran. This also includes damage to Iran’s air defense system which makes it more vulnerable to further Israeli, or US, strikes.

On 2 November, Hezbollah launched a barrage of more than 130 missiles into Northern Israel from Lebanon. At the same time VOA reported that American B-52 bombers have arrived in the Middle East.

Why This Matters

Iran has already launched to large-scale attacks against Israel, the first in April and the second in October. The October attack we met with dozens of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and defense industrial facilities near Tehran.

It is uncertain how Iran may retaliate. The previous missile attacks had little effect other than depleting Israel’s air defense munitions supply. Additionally, Iran is in a weakened defensive posture due to the destruction of much of its air defense system.

What is also uncertain is whether or not the United States would partake in a renewed series of strikes on Iran. President Biden, the State Department, and the US mission to the UN all previously stated that the US would remain committed to the defense of Israel and Americans in the region.

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End Brief

That concludes this brief. I hope you learned something.

Have an excellent week ahead.

Nick