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Monday Morning Brief (10-13 October)
A NATO nuclear exercise, permanent members of the UN Security Council are set to meet, and updates from the Middle East. Plus more...
Nick
October 14, 2024
Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals
Good morning,
This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. We are going to discuss various updates from the Middle East and NATO-Russia relations, among other things.
Give yourself about 5 minutes for this one. Let’s begin.
Reporting Period: 10-13 October
Bottom Line Up Front:
1. NATO is going to conduct an annual nuclear exercise as the permanent UN Security Council members plan to meet to discuss non-proliferation. The NATO exercise is the first major exercise to occur under the new Secretary General Mark Rutte.
2. There are various updates from the Middle East: The IDF have sustained ground operations in Gaza and Lebanon, Iran has promised to retaliate against Israeli strikes, and American troops are deploying to Israel.
3. North Korean troops are training in Russia. ISW reported that North Korean troops could either be sent to fight in Ukraine or relieve Russian reserves along the border. Russia is currently facing manpower and conscription issues.
4. NATO’s defense ministers are set to meet this week. They will discuss the first changes to NATO-Russia relations since 1997. The alliance will formally draft new guidance in June 2025, so this meeting is likely to lay the groundwork for those changes.
5. The US is investigating a major Chinese cyberattack. A Chinese hacking group conducted cyber operations against US telecommunications companies AT&T, Verizon, and Lumen Technologies. The government said they likely infiltrated systems that federal intelligence agencies use to conduct wiretaps and other collection operations. It is uncertain how extensive the breach is.
Missed yesterday’s post? Read the recent Pacific Weekly here.
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NATO Commits To Nuclear Exercise, Nuclear Powers To Meet In New York
On 10 October, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister announced that the permanent UN Security Council members of Russia, the US, China, France, and the UK, will meet sometime in the next two weeks in New York. No official agenda has been set. It is likely the group - all of which are nuclear powers - will hold non-proliferation talks.
On 10 October, NATO’s new Secretary General Mark Rutte announced the alliance would launch “Steadfast Noon,” an annual nuclear employment exercise which began more than a decade ago.
Mark Rutte said he notified Russia of the exercise plans, and that no live-ordnance will be involved in the operation. The exercise leads are Belgium and the Netherlands and will include more than 2,000 NATO personnel from 13 nations.
Why This Matters
Nuclear weapons, and the fear of their use, have been dominating the recent news cycle. China recently launched an inert ballistic missile into the ocean. In August, Russia expanded on weapons employment guidance in its nuclear doctrine. Both Iran and North Korea have continued their development of nuclear weapons.
With conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, non-proliferation guidance is as relevant as it was at the height of the Cold War.
Want To Read More?
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Israel Carries On With Ground Operations, Mulls Iran Retaliation; US Troops To Israel
On 12 October, the IDF launched a new offensive in Jabalya, a northern part of the Gaza strip, due to increased Hamas activity. The IDF issued evacuation orders and are blocking road access. The operation was planned by retired IDF general Giora Eilan and is being called “The General’s Plan.”
On 13 October, a day after Yom Kippur, Hezbollah launched 115 projectiles into Israel. The IDF have continued airstrikes and ground operations in Lebanon. Netanyahu has also demanded that UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres remove UNIFIL aid workers from southern Lebanon as the IDF expand operations.
In the government, Israeli officials are still deliberating on an Iran retaliation strike package. On 12 October, Sky News reported that Israeli leadership are still considering strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites. On 13 October, Iran warned that it would retaliate against any Israeli strike on its territory.
The US has urged Israel to take a cautious approach. The Department of Defense announced that US Army Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) assets were being deployed to Israel. The air defense units will supplement Israel’s air defense infrastructure in preparation of further missile attacks by Iran or its proxies.
Why This Matters
Overall, these developments indicate further complexities to regional military strategies and diplomatic relations. Hezbollah and Hamas’ growing activity, especially during Yom Kippur, indicate deep coordination and continued armament by Iran.
Israel’s decision to launch retaliation strikes against Iran would likely lead to another response by Tehran which would likely expand the conflict despite American encouragement to proceed with caution.
Finally, Netanyahu’s frustration and rebuff of the UN will likely inspire further diplomatic pressure against Israel. While many nations, particularly in the West, formally support Israel, their methods for prosecuting the wars in Gaza and Lebanon have remained under scrutiny. Isolating the UN will likely add to this tension from would-be allies.
Want To Read More?
Iran tells the US it will retaliate against Israel by CNN
US THAAD to Israel by Department of Defense
Live updates by The Jerusalem Post
Israeli offensive in Gaza by CNN
Israel mulls strikes by Sky News
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North Korean Troops To Russia Before 2025
In an 11 October report, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that - according to Ukrainian intelligence - “several thousand” North Korean soldiers are training in Russia and could be deployed alongside Russian forces in 2024.
The Washington Post reported that North Korean officers were in Ukraine serving as observers and advisors. The same article stated six North Koreans were killed in Ukrainian strikes.
Why This Matters
Russia is currently conducting offensive operations in Ukraine’s eastern oblasts as it tries to fully expel opposition there. Russian troops are also counterattacking in Ukraine-held Kursk, a Russian oblast.
Russian and Ukraine both suffer from manpower shortages as the pool of fighting-age males dwindles. Russia is finding it more difficult to find conscripts. North Korea currently supplies Russia with weapons and munitions. It is more likely that Russia would first use Korean troops along the border to free up Russian reserves.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by ISW
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NATO Defense Ministers To Meet, Set To Discuss Russian Relations
On 17 October, NATO Defense Ministers will meet in Brussels to discuss the alliance’s formal stance on relations with Russia. The 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act has served as the cornerstone of NATO relations towards Russia. While NATO remains a defensive security organization, the 1997 act established goals for a “stable, peaceful and undivided Europe.”
NATO officials have already agreed to draft a NATO-Russia strategy when they meet at The Hague in June 2025. This meeting is likely to lay the groundwork for that legislation.
Why This Matters
This is a major paradigm shift in international relations. NATO emerged from the Cold War as the decisive global security cooperative; it served as the representation of “The West” and its economic, military, and political victory over Soviet Communism. Despite that victory, the West had sought to integrate Russia into the dominant Liberal global order.
This is a topic I have written about before. In 2022, I wrote a stream-of-thought piece about a century-defining diplomatic endeavor:
Now, with the war still ongoing, the West is firmly aligning itself in the opposite direction. Foreign policy does not happen in a vacuum. The West failed to integrate Russia in the 2000s, we failed to deter Russia regarding Ukraine in 2014, and we have failed since.
We can facilitate - and fund - Russia’s defeat in Ukraine, but our foreign policy must reflect ambitions for a free, democratic, and post-Putin Russia that would be integral in deterring aggressive forces in the Pacific and Middle East, as well as nuclear non-proliferation. NATO’s proposed alterations to formalized relations with Moscow appears to be going in the opposite direction.
Just my two cents.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by Kyiv Independent
Coverage by POLITICO
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US Investigating Massive Chinese Telecommunications Cyberattack
On 11 October, it was reported that federal authorities are investigating a cyberattack by China-backed hackers, identified as "Salt Typhoon," that targeted major U.S. telecommunications companies, including Verizon, AT&T, and Lumen Technologies.
The hackers breached systems used for intelligence collection by federal agencies, including wiretaps. The FBI and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency are leading the investigation but the extent of the attack and stolen data is unclear. Concerns persist that the hackers could have compromised sensitive information related to ongoing US investigations.
Why This Matters
Cyberattacks pose various national security risks that either undermine our efforts or provide a strategic edge to the perpetrating adversary. In China’s case, they may have gained valuable data regarding ongoing intelligence operations or investigations against the CCP. Additionally, the hackers have likely captured the data of Americans who use the targeted carriers.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by CBS News
End Brief
That concludes this Monday morning brief.
Feel free to email me with tips, questions, or comments: [email protected]
Thanks for reading!
See you on Thursday,
Nick