Good morning,

This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Today we are covering the drone sightings, the crisis in Syria, and growing internal friction inside NATO.

Reporting Period: 12 - 16 December 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Government Walks Back Drone Concerns As Sightings Continue, Legislation In Congress

Summary
On 14 December, despite a month-long stream of reports of mysterious drone activity in New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania, the Department of Defense has walked back the situation by stating such events are “typical.” Despite stating the government has the “means to detect and respond to such drones” the FBI, DHS, FAA, and DOD have not been “able to locate or identify the operators or the points of origin.”

Findings

• Picatinny Arsenal and Naval Weapons Station Earle, New Jersey: “Thousands” of reports claim to have seen drones flying over sensitive sites in New Jersey. Some were at the Picatinny Arsenal and a Navy weapons station, while others were over critical civilian infrastructure. Those sightings have also spilled over into neighboring New York and Pennsylvania.

• Wright Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio: On 13 December, small unidentified aerial systems flew over Wright Patterson Air Force base, shutting down some flight operations. A Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) was issued from Saturday evening to Sunday morning. The drones reportedly “range in sizes and configurations.” Listen to the incursion being observed and voiced over radio:

• Legislation: Drone-countering authorities authorized under the FAA Reauthorization Act of 2018 is set to expire on 20 December. Under that law, the DHS and the DOJ are allowed to use advanced detection technologies to identify, track, and mitigate illicit drone use over US territory. On 10 December, Rep. August Pfluger (R-TX) requested these authorities be extended through the Counter-UAS Authority Security, Safety, and Reauthorization Act.

Why This Matters
The ongoing sightings near sensitive military and infrastructure sites underscore significant security gaps in addressing drone threats. However, these incidents also raise important questions about the government’s response to the situation—whether it is actively working to resolve the issue or allowing the crisis to escalate.

In the recent DOD statement, a spokesperson referenced legal constraints on government authorities, hinting at controversial implications. Specifically, the government has "limited authorities when it comes to conducting investigations" and is “prohibited from conducting intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance operations in the United States.”

The implication being that expanded government ISR authorities would allow the government to to address public concerns or effectively resolve future drone incidents.

While the US clearly faces challenges in identifying, tracking, and neutralizing drone threats, there are also concerns that the crisis could be used to stoke public fear in order to push for new drone and surveillance legislation.

Whether the crisis is being driven by hoaxsters, adversaries, or the government itself, the current response is inadequate and unacceptable.

Sources: Department of Defense, The Warzone, MeriTalk, Congress, Newsmax

Biden Endorses National Security Memo Before Trump Presidency Begins

Summary
President Biden has endorsed a national security memorandum designed to help Trump shape policy that counters growing cooperation between Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. The memo outlines key challenges posed by each adversary and offers strategic recommendations for addressing these threats effectively.

Findings

• Recommendations: The memo lays out its recommendations into four broad categories: Improve US government interagency cooperation, expand the speed and quality of intelligence sharing with allies, refine and expand the use of economic sanctions as necessary, and prepare to manage multiple crises at one time.

Why This Matters
The memo reportedly highlights the strategic relationship each adversary shares with the others, and what challenges Trump’s administration might want to focus on addressing:

• Russia: Moscow continues to rely on Iran for drones and missiles, while it gets substantial artillery and small arms munitions from North Korea. Russia also shares a growing research relationship with China, in addition to growing size and frequency of joint military exercises.

• Iran: Tehran continues to partner with Russia on advanced technologies relating to aircraft and air defenses. Russia and Iran both propped up the Assad regime in Syria, and the memo likely highlighted how cooperation between Tehran and Moscow could lead to further conflict in Syria.

• North Korea: The memo likely highlights the new Russian-North Korea defense pact, and how North Korean aid - in terms of munitions and manpower - may be used to expand Russian operations in Ukraine. Russia may also expand its research relationship with North Korea, and could provide advanced missile and rocket research.

• China: Washington grows increasingly concerned about the growing military partnership between Russia and China. 2024 saw various military patrols and exercises between Beijing and Moscow, in addition to operations in the arctic. The memo likely addressed the possibility of Russian support for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Sources: AP News, ABC News

NATO Shows Signs Of Disunity Over Ukraine Peace Plan

Summary
On 9 December, Friedrich Merz urged European allies to form an independent group, separate from the United States, to establish a “common vision” for peace in Ukraine. Merz is reportedly leading polls to become Germany’s next Chancellor. Some European leaders and mainstream media remain concerned that a Trump peace plan, with support from China and EU skeptics, will favor Russia.
On 12 December, Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Spain, and the United Kingdom released a joint statement on support for Ukraine.

Findings

• Factional Friction: In a 12 December joint statement, European allies reiterated their goal: a “just and lasting peace in Ukraine and durable security for Europe,” in addition to supporting Kyiv’s accession to the EU and NATO. The group pledged increased aid to Ukraine while intensifying economic pressure on Russia. The statement was preceded by Friedrich Merz proposing a European group, exclusive of the US, leading a peace negotiation. His proposal coincides with significant political turbulence, including France’s appointment of François Bayrou as Prime Minister following a government collapse and Germany’s impending vote of no confidence, with snap elections set for February 2025, where Merz is a frontrunner.

• Trump: In addition to peace negotiations possibly benefitting Russia, some European heads of state grow concerned about Trump’s NATO policy. He has threatened to cut funding or withdraw the US from the alliance if members to not uphold financial contributions. Historically, Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte have shared good relations.

• Russia: Putin, seeing no major shifts in western policies, is unlikely to support a European designed peace plan. Continued aid from the Biden administration, Ukraine's use of Western-supplied systems for long-range strikes, ongoing sanctions, and the deployment of NATO troops near Russia’s border all reduce the likelihood of reaching an agreement.

Why This Matters
Europe’s position reflects the need to address realties on the battlefield before catering to desires for peace. Europe will continue to counter Russian successes on the battlefield through aid and economic pressure, complicating the likelihood of an agreement. The growing friction between western allies is a concern as Trump’s presidency looms.

What is Trump likely to do in his first days in office?

• Demand immediate ceasefire in Ukraine, with agreements by Kyiv and Moscow.

• Call for mediated peace negotiations between Zelenskyy and Putin, and their respective staffs.

• Trump may restrict, or cancel, aid to Ukraine as leverage.

• Trump may call on Xi Jinping to pressure Putin and take a seat at negotiations (to Russia’s favor).

While peace is the unanimous end goal, European allies are unlikely to support Trump’s proposed plan if it mirrors the scenario described above. Such a plan could significantly strain relationships among otherwise steadfast allies. Potential consequences might include:

• The establishment of a European peace commission that excludes the US and pro-Russian EU members, such as Hungary and Slovakia.

• EU and Ukraine bilaterally establish peace conditions that are unacceptable to Russia and the US, thereby collapsing negotiations.

• Continuation of the war in Ukraine and, possibly, and escalation due to falling through on negotiations.

• Increased EU aid and troop deployments to Eastern Europe, heighten Russian paranoia and reduce the likelihood of a peace agreement.

• A breakdown in EU-US diplomacy over NATO contributions, trade agreements, and broader strategic cooperation.

Sources: UK Government, Newsweek, POLITICO, POLITICO, Al Jazeera

Russia To Partner With BRICS Nations On Artificial Intelligence Development

Summary
On 11 December, Putin announced the AI Alliance Network, a partnership for BRICS nations to cooperate on AI development and implementation. PJSC Sberbank, Russia’s state-owned financial services company, is financing the endeavor despite difficulties in acquiring microchips necessary for technological development. Sberbank stated that associations from Brazil, China, India, South Africa, Serbia, and Indonesia had joined the network.

Findings

• Global AI Race: Putin’s announcement of the AI Alliance Network is Russia’s latest bid to increase its generative AI development. Currently, 10 nations are pursuing generative AI models, with the US and China leading the way. Russia currently ranks 31 of 83 countries developing AI models, but cooperation from BRICS members may accelerate Moscow’s innovation.

• Progress: On 13 December, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Chernyshenko hosted the inaugural meeting of the AI Alliance Network in Moscow. There were representatives from 14 nations in attendance, including China, Iran, India, and Brazil.

Why This Matters
The risks associated with AI are limitless.
China, for example, has inserted “Xi Jinping thought” and Chinese Marxist doctrine into its AI model to ensure the platform, and its use, coincides with CCP ideology and ambitions.

A BRICS generative AI, with significant contributions from China or Russia, would likely have similar ideological influences at the center of the model. North Korea, Russia, and China have already committed to using AI to enhance cyber and information warfare operations.

Sources: Reuters, Economic Times, Yahoo, Russian Government

IDF Continues Operations In Syria As Factions Pursue Interests; Israel Expands Settlements Policy

Summary
On 15 December, The Guardian reported that Israel has continued to conduct airstrikes across Syria. Various factions, including the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HST) rebels, ethnic Uyghurs, and Druze peoples have all voiced different strategic interests. Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Israel is expanding settlement building in the Golan Heights.

Findings

• Syrian Military: Israel’s military conducted air and naval strikes on Syrian military targets, effectively destroying the entire army and navy. Al Mayadeen reported that Israeli strikes have “completely destroyed” Syria’s air defenses, shaping the environment for future operations.

• Druze Peoples: A group of Druze community leaders convened in Hader, Syria to express a desire to join Israel. The Druze, a religious and ethnic minority group in the Middle East, fear the rule of a radical Islamic government. IDF officers reportedly met with the Druze leaders following their declaration.

• Syrian Uyghurs: Following the collapse of the Assad government, the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP) has vowed to expand operations into Chinese-occupied Xinjiang. TIP has been active in Syria for more than a decade after ethnic Uyghurs fled Chinese ethnic cleansing and nation-building in Xinjiang. Now, the group have vowed to liberate their homeland from Xi Jinping’s Chinese Communist strategy there.

• HST: Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of HST, said the group is not interested in conflict with Israel and that he hopes for a “diplomatic solution.” Jolani said his priority is avoiding new conflict and beginning the reconstruction of Syria. HST’s vision is for an Islamic government in Syria.

Why This Matters
The conflict in Syria remains one of the most complex and multifaceted crises in recent history. While the United States and Europe have expressed a desire to establish a democratic government in Syria, these efforts are likely to face significant obstacles due to conflicting interests from regional actors, including Israel, and the myriad armed ethnic groups.

Israel may further expand its military incursions into Syria, aiming to weaken Syrian military capabilities and curb the armament of Islamic terrorist groups. Additionally, Israel’s ongoing settlement expansion in the Golan Heights, coupled with the Druze community’s declaration, could be used as a pretext to extend its nation-building into Syrian.

The possibility of direct conflict between Israel and HST remains uncertain. However, the broader outcome of the Syrian conflict will likely result in the country fracturing into de facto regional and ethnic governments.

These dynamics are further complicated by the incoming Trump administration. President-elect Trump, a strong supporter of Israel and its Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, share a mutual hostility toward Iran. However, it remains unclear whether Trump will adopt a non-interventionist approach toward Syria or if conflicting interests there will strain the US-Israeli relationship.

Sources: The Guardian, Al Mayadeen, Economic Times, Telegraph, The Jerusalem Post, i24 News, The Intel Brief

End Brief

That concludes this edition of The Intel Brief. Thanks for reading.

Have a great week!

Nick