Monday Morning Brief (12-16 September)

Russia threatens NATO with war, United Nations Security Council reform, plus more...

Author

Nick
September 16, 2024

Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals

Good morning,

Welcome to the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Today we are mostly going to discuss Russia and the United Nations.

This brief should take you about 4 minutes and 30 seconds to finish. Let’s begin.

Reporting Period: 12-16 September

Bottom Line Up Front:

1. Russia is conducting a massive naval exercise with assets around the globe. Russia has also asked China to partake in the exercise, another sign of their growing partnership in the Pacific.

2. The United States supports UN Security Council reform. A recent statement indicated that the US supports the addition of African and small island nations to the UNSC. This is likely going to be discussed in the upcoming assembly.

3. Congress passes 25 bills aimed at protecting the US from China. This period was dubbed “China week” because of the volume and support for the bills (still no progress on the funding continuance though).

4. Russia threatened NATO with war. Moscow doesn’t want the US and our allies to allow Ukraine to strike targets deep within Russia’s borders. Russian officials said it would lead to uncontrollable escalation.

Missed yesterday’s Pacific Weekly? Read it HERE.

Russia’s Largest Naval Exercise In Decades

The Russian and Chinese navies are currently conducting the joint “Ocean 2024” exercise. The exercise, which includes drills in the Pacific Ocean, Artic Ocean, Mediterranean, Caspian, and Baltic Seas, will include more than 400 vessels, 120 aircraft, 125 drones, and 90,000 personnel.

These drills are Russia’s most extensive naval drills of the year. Russia’s Ministry of Defense emphasized their desire to expand cooperation with “friendly countries” such as China. China is contributing 4 ships and 15 aircraft to the exercise.

Why This Matters

Russia will use the opportunity to develop tactical competencies across its naval force, develop cohesion with Chinese counterparts, and present a show of force to the United States-led alliance in the Pacific.

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US Support Security Council Reform Before UN General Assembly

On 12 September, US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield announced that the US supports creating two permanent Security Council seats for African states and another to be rotated among small island states. The United Nations General Assembly is meeting in New York City soon. They are scheduled to discuss Security Council reform, the war in Gaza, Ukraine, and emerging technologies such as AI.

The assembly will convene on 24 September and end on 30 September.

Why This Matters

This news comes as the US is looking to garner greater support and interest from Africa. Many African countries have been looking to Russia and China for security and economic partnerships in recent years.

The expansion of the council is complicated. The council has 5 permanent voting members (Russia, China, France, the US, and the UK). In order for the UN to deploy military forces, impose sanctions, and establish blockades it must get a unanimous vote from its permanent members. Current disagreements by sitting members makes this nearly impossible, so adding members raises the question of the UN’s legitimacy and efficiency.

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Congress Passes Multiple Bills To Make Sweeping Protections Against China

On 12 September, Chairman John Moolenaar (R-MI) of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party dubbed this week in Congress as “China Week” due to the 25 pieces of legislation that were passed.

The various bills are aimed at protecting the United States from Chinese military, economic, ideological, and technological threats. Some of these bills target Chinese products (like drones and batteries) and some protect our agriculture and farmlands. Others are more overt and restrict China’s ideological influence campaigns (i.e. the Confucius Institute). Even more so, some target China’s electric vehicle production and others look to align us closer to Taiwan.

Why This Matters

This is a sign that the US wants to be tougher on China (which is especially interesting considering we will have a new president soon). American and Chinese relations have been steadily deteriorating. While both US and Chinese officials have stated a desire for dialogue and coordination, this collection of legislation suggests Sino-US relations are going to become more estranged.

Aside from conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, China is America’s chief concern and most dangerous near-peer adversary.

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Russia Threatens NATO With War If Ukraine Is Allowed Long-Range Strikes

For months, Ukraine has been asking the United States and NATO for permission to use long-range artillery and missile systems to strike strategic targets deep within Russia’s borders. Under the Biden administration, this capability has been restricted.

The bold Kursk offensive by Ukraine and Russia’s massive offensive in the Donetsk region have given NATO cause to reassess that policy.

Responding to the possibility of these strikes being approved, Russian officials said it lead to escalations, including war with NATO and the destruction of Kyiv.

Why This Matters

Just last week, it was revealed that Iran was supplying Russia with short-range ballistic missiles that would allow Russia to strike deeper and more frequently behind the frontline it shares with Ukraine.

Due to the high-cost and loss of life during the war, Russia has used missiles and drones to increasingly great effect. It is likely that these tactics will expand should Ukraine’s rules of engagement change. The worst-case scenario is Russian deployment or use of nuclear weapons (which Moscow has touted).

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End Brief

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Remember, the next brief arrives Thursday @ 0630 ET.

Have an excellent week,

Nick