Good morning,

This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s discuss some major updates from the weekend.

Reporting Period: 13-17 March 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Pentagon Plans To Reform Legal Corps, Loosen Rules Of Engagement

Summary
U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is initiating a comprehensive restructuring of the military's legal branch, the Judge Advocate General's (JAG) Corps, aiming to relax existing rules of engagement and streamline court-martial procedures.

Findings

• Leadership Appointment: Tim Parlatore, Hegseth's personal lawyer, has been tasked with restructuring the JAG Corps to align with the Defense Secretary's vision of a more aggressive military posture. This means loosening the legal format behind rules of engagement, potentially shortening the strategic “kill chain” by allowing tactical level commanders to determine engagement criteria at conflict flashpoints.

• Background: Hegseth has previously criticized international agreements like the Geneva Conventions, arguing that they restrict U.S. military operations. In his 2024 book, "The War on Warriors," he advocated for a more unrestrained approach to warfare, suggesting that adherence to such conventions hampers the ability to achieve decisive victories.

• Potential Implications: Experts caution that diminishing legal oversight could result in higher civilian casualties and damage the U.S.'s international standing. Retired military officials emphasize the importance of maintaining ethical standards to ensure both operational success and moral legitimacy behind operations. More extreme criticism suggests a “Trump-loyalist” JAG Corps could employ military operations at the behest of Trump’s personal interests.

Why This Matters
While Hegseth’s decision appears to be amoralist and warmongering, the change does offer an opportunity for strategic-level commanders to shorten “kill chains” and ensure a disciplined fighting force.

The “kill chain” is a term that describes the military’s ability to discern risk, identify threats, establish targets, and engage them in a world of hybrid warfare operations “short of war.” The fear is that legal constraints will delay the U.S. military’s ability to respond to a conflict when it begins, putting us at a strategic disadvantage from conflict start.

The U.S. is already implementing this mindset in the Pacific where China, the preeminent “gray zone” practitioner, gets closer to launching an invasion of Taiwan. The change is being made with Japan. In July 2024, the U.S. announced plans to convert U.S. Forces Japan into a joint force headquarters with Japanese counterparts operating under U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. This means U.S. forces in Japan will have deeper coordination with the Japanese military and political leadership, allowing for the quicker deployment of U.S. forces based in Japan during war.

As for the concerns, Hegseth’s changes are unlikely to back military operations that serve the current administration’s personal interests. However, legal changes may help facilitate the discharge of personnel that are deemed unfavorable and undisciplined.

Recommended reading: “The Kill Chain” by Christian Brose

Sources: The Guardian, U.S. Department of Defense

G7 Foreign Ministers Meet In Canada

Summary
The G7 Foreign Ministers' Meeting took place from March 12 to 14, 2025, in Charlevoix, Quebec, as part of Canada's G7 presidency. The summit precedes the G7 Leaders’ Summit which is scheduled for June 2025 in Alberta, Canada.

Findings
The G7 Foreign Ministers discussed some key issues:

• Ukraine-Russia Conflict: Despite the U.S. and NATO stating the West needs to eventually reestablish relations with Moscow, the ministers unanimously supported Ukraine's sovereignty and urged Russia to accept the 30-day ceasefire proposal.

• Trade Tensions: The U.S. imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, leading to strained relations, particularly with Canada. Despite these challenges, the ministers managed to produce a final communique affirming support for Ukraine's territorial sovereignty and calling for Russia to agree to an equal ceasefire.

• Maritime Security and China's Actions: The G7 criticized China's activities in the South China Sea, including land reclamations and militarization of outposts, asserting that such actions disrupt regional stability. The group also mentioned and denounced the “One China” principle, indicating a possibility that the Western-led alliance will step closer to recognizing Taiwanese sovereignty. China responded by accusing the G7 of interference and expressing strong disapproval.

• U.S. Role: Secretary of State Rubio played a significant role in the meeting despite U.S. tensions with its Western allies, especially Canada. Rubio’s role reportedly offered the other members more clarity and reassurance on U.S. foreign policy intentions under the Trump administration.
  While Rubio attended the G7 summit, NATO Secretary General Rutte met with President Trump in Washington where he reportedly urged Trump to keep the U.S. in NATO.

Why This Matters
The G7 Foreign Ministers Summit is a big win for U.S. foreign policy and the Trump administration’s image, as many in the U.S. and abroad perceive a distancing from NATO and the EU while embracing Russia. While the media coverage is somewhat mild, the summit offered foreign officials some greater clarity on U.S. foreign policy interests and areas of support.

The meeting also set the agenda for the upcoming meeting between heads of state, where President Trump is expected to attend — his first G7 meeting since 2019 and the first time UK Prime Minister Starmer and Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba will attend.

Sources: AP News, AP News, Reuters, Government of Canada, Euro News, Taipei Times

U.S., Russia Discuss Ukraine Ceasefire Ahead Of Trump-Putin Talk

Summary
U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov held a phone call to discuss the proposed Ukraine ceasefire. This week, Trump and Putin are expected to hold a phone call.

Findings

• Ceasefire Proposal: Last week, after getting Ukraine’s support, the United States introduced a 30-day ceasefire plan. Russia's agreement is pending, with Putin raising several conditions and expressing concerns about the proposal.

• Diplomatic Engagements: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held a phone call where they discussed specific aspects of implementing the proposed 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine.
  The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that Rubio and Lavrov will remain in contact, as Putin said Russia will accept a ceasefire with certain conditions.

• Ukraine's Stance: President Zelenskyy has accused Russia of attempting to strengthen its battlefield position before agreeing to any truce and has called for immediate negotiations following the ceasefire.

• Scheduled Discussion: U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin are expected to hold a phone conversation this week to deliberate on a proposed 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine.
  U.S. Special Envoy Witkoff expressed his optimism about the scheduled call, stating he expects a “good and positive” outcome.

Why This Matters
The anticipated dialogue between Presidents Trump and Putin signifies a critical juncture in efforts to halt the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire, endorsed by Ukraine, aims to create a conducive environment for broader peace negotiations. However, Russia's conditional stance and expressed reservations suggest that achieving consensus may require addressing Moscow's specific concerns, such as NATO expansion. Continued diplomatic efforts, including high-level communications between U.S. and Russian officials, are essential to navigate the complexities of the ceasefire proposal and to work towards a lasting resolution to the conflict.

It is likely that if Putin’s conditions, such as NATO expansion and territorial gain, are not met, Russia could take advantage of talks to expand offensive operations and seize more territory from Ukraine, weakening Kyiv’s bargaining power. Supporting this estimate is the fact that both Kyiv and Moscow have launched large-scale aerial attacks — including hundreds of drones — amid ceasefire talks.

Sources: The Moscow Times

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thank you for reading!

Have a great week.

See you Thursday,

Nick