Monday Morning Brief (13-16 June 2024)

No one follows the news during the weekend, and you don’t have to because you have me.

Good morning! This is your Monday morning iteration of The Intel Brief. Let’s look at some key events from this past weekend.

Give yourself about 7 minutes to read this. Otherwise, enjoy the BLUF!

(FYI: I’ve added a “Why This Matters” section to give you some extra context and insight. I hope you like it.)

Reporting period: 13-16 June 2024.

Bottom-Line Up Front:

• The G7 met in Italy from 13-15 June. They discussed ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the rising threat in China, emerging technologies like AI, and economics.

• At G7, President Biden and Ukraine’s President Zelensky signed a 10-year security pact that some view as a transitory step to Ukrainian NATO membership.

• Russia is increasingly using hybrid warfare techniques (such as sabotage and hacking) in NATO countries.

• The US Air Force is changing its approach to acquiring and integrating new technologies, focusing on systems before platforms.

• Russian warships conducted joint exercises in Havana, Cuba.

• The successful sea trials of the Fujian mean that China is halfway to its goal of having 6 fully capable aircraft carriers by 2035.

Leaders Gather For G7 Summit In Italy
13 June 2024

On 13 June, Italy hosted the G7 Summit, which continued until 15 June. Leaders addressed various topics including the war in Ukraine (highlighting a new security pact between the US and Ukraine), Israel and Hamas, escalating tensions in the Middle East, integrating the “global south,” China, migration issues, and shaping future economies.

Notable guests at this summit included Ukraine’s President Zelensky, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and the Pope.

Note: The G7 consists of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union leadership. Russia was originally part of the group, known as the G8, until 2014. Russia was expelled following the Ukraine crisis and the annexation of Crimea.

Why This Matters

G7 is an opportunity for member states to address common concerns, establish shared goals, and pursue joint policies. Typically, G7 is used to align global efforts.

Want To Read More?

• CNBC’s coverage from the week

United States And Ukraine Sign Long-Term Security Agreement
13 June 2024

On Thursday, 13 June, President Biden and President Zelensky signed a new bilateral security agreement during the G7 summit in Italy. The signing of the security agreement coincided with new sanctions on Russia and the approval of a $50 billion loan (from seized Russian assets) by the G7 leaders.

The security agreement comprises aid, arms procurement, plans for bilateral exercises, doctrinal revisions, economic investment, and force modernization. It is valid for 10 years but can be terminated by either party at any point.

Why This Matters

This is the most robust agreement of its kind by the United States in years (maybe since GWOT). The agreement will commit billions of taxpayer dollars to three Ukrainian projects, each dependent on the success of the latter:

• Winning the war against Russia

• Rebuilding Ukraine and its economy

• Integrating Ukraine into the West.

This commitment indicates that Ukraine and the West are not willing to negotiate a broken peace in which Ukraine cedes eastern territories to Russia. In May 2024, Russia said it would negotiate a ceasefire on such terms.

Many see this as a precursory move to get Ukraine into NATO and the EU. Should Donald Trump be elected President, he could withdraw the US from this agreement.

Want To Read More?

• The G7 loan by ABC News

• Security agreement press release from The White House

• More from Reuters

Russia Is Increasing Hybrid Warfare Activities In NATO Countries
15 June 2024

NATO members (Estonia, Poland, and the Czech Republic) have warned that Russia is increasing hybrid warfare activities within NATO countries. Estonia’s ambassador to NATO stated that not only is Russia increasing these activities, but they are going unchecked. Russia’s hybrid warfare activities include:

• Jamming GPS signals of a commercial flight

• Removing maritime border lines in the Baltic

• Causing the death of a Polish border guard

• Hacking London hospitals

• Setting fire to warehouses in Ukraine and an Ikea in Lithuania

• Flooding migrants into Poland through Belarus

The White House acknowledged that it is observing these activities but did not indicate any plans to address them. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the alliance is actively monitoring these threats and prioritizing the sharing of intelligence.

Why This Matters

Russia’s military failures in Ukraine have prompted the Kremlin to seek creative solutions to compete against Europe. For Russia, hybrid warfare can be a cheap, effective, and shadowy way to strike the West. Russia hopes that such actions will divert Western attention and resources away from conventional wartime policies, such as providing aid to Ukraine or imposing well-designed sanctions on Russia.

Want To Read More?

• The original report by The Hill

• A recent report by Balkan Insight

• The cyberattack on London hospitals

US Air Force Shifting How It Develops Future Capabilities
13 June 2024

On 13 June, Air Force Chief of Staff General David Allvin committed the branch to changing how it procures new technology to develop warfighting capabilities. Allvin stated that the Air Force should look to “systems first, platforms second.”

Allvin elaborated, stating the Air Force always purchased individual weapons platforms, such as fighters, before meeting core requirements in communications, networks, or command and control.

Why This Matters

Rising technologies force others into irrelevancy. By having a robust infrastructure of easily-upgradable systems, the Air Force thinks it can more readily procure and develop new systems and platforms to remain dominant in the air and space.

Want To Read More?

• More from National Defense

Russian Warships In Cuba For Military Exercise
13 June 2024

Background: On June 5, Vladimir Putin threatened to deploy nuclear weapons within range of the US and Europe. On 12 June, Russian warships docked in Havana, Cuba for an exercise. Before going to port, the vessels sailed off of Florida’s east coast.

On 13 June, pictures of the vessels were posted. One frigate and one nuclear-powered submarine were publicly observed entering port. The ships are expected to stay until 17 June.

Why This Matters

Legacy media present the presence of the vessels as a nuclear threat, but the arrival of these vessels is symbolic. Russia is trying to gain political prestige by threatening the US. The US will likely conduct MASINT (Measurements and Signals) and IMINT (Imagery) collection on the vessels.

Want To Read More?

• Photos by Reuters

• Learn about MASINT with a DNI primer

China Is Halfway To Goal Of Six Aircraft Carriers By 2035
15 June 2024

Since April 30, China’s newest aircraft carrier (the Fujian) has been conducting sea trials. The Fujian represents a significant leap in China's naval and air capabilities at sea. It features an electromagnetic catapult system for launching aircraft, replacing the dated ski jump found on China’s other carriers. The Fujian is China’s third aircraft carrier and the largest non-US military vessel. China aims to have 6 fully capable aircraft carriers by 2035.

Why This Matters

China's aircraft carriers enable it to project more power at sea. China aims to construct a "blue water navy" that can contend with the US Navy in the Pacific. A modern carrier fleet would also enable the PLA to compete for air superiority and conduct assault support operations in the event of a Taiwan invasion. Increased air power at sea also enhances the PLA's capability to conduct more advanced anti-submarine warfare.

Want To Read More?

• More from Meta-Defense

End Brief

That concludes this iteration of The Intel Brief. Next one is coming at you on Thursday at 0630.

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See you Thursday!