Monday Morning Brief (1-4 August)

Good morning,

This is your Monday morning brief, short and to the point.

Reporting Period: 1-4 August

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Missed the Sunday SITREP? Here you go!

🚀 U.S. Looking For “Layered Defense” In Guam

On 1 August, Air and Space Forces Magazine reported the U.S. military’s interest in developing a “layered defense” on Guam to counter China’s massive arsenal of ballistic missiles.

U.S. officials are worried about China’s ability to conduct “complex integrated attacks” which require countermeasures for dealing with threats at various speeds, altitudes, and ranges.

The principle threat to Guam (which is in the Second Island Chain) is the DF-26, an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) with a 2,000 nautical mile range. The Pentagon estimates the Chinese have some 250 launchers and some 500 IRBMs in their arsenal.

Why This Matters

Guam is an integral part of the United States’ Island Chain strategy. The U.S., and our Pacific allies, will look to contend with China within the First Island Chain, but a “rear” posture in the Second Island Chain is necessary.

China’s strategy complicates this. Theoretically, China could launch its ballistic missile arsenal from air and ground systems and target U.S. assets across the entire Pacific; leaving Taiwan, American allies, and the U.S. military disjointed.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Air and Space Forces Magazine

⚓️ United States Boosting Military Posture In Middle East

On 2 August, the United States Department of Defense announced that a fighter jet squadron and aircraft carrier will be deployed to the Middle East.

The U.S. worries that Iran and its proxies could strike American or Israeli targets in retribution for the Israeli assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders last week.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to the region, as well as an unnamed fighter squadron and additional air defense platforms.

Why This Matters

Last week, Israel conducted strikes that killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr. Leaders worry that the strikes might expand the Israel-Gaza War to the broader region. Leaders worry Iran will seek vengeance and attack Israel.

Comment: The British embassy in Beirut has evacuated workers and Royal Marines are on standby in Cyprus. The United States, Italy and France have warned citizens to leave Lebanon.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Military. com

• Coverage by USNI News

🤝 Japan And The Philippines Hold First Joint Exercise In South China Sea

On 2 August, Japan and the Philippines conducted their first joint military exercises in the South China Sea. The exercise, which was in Filipino waters, follows an American-Filipino exercise in the same region.

This is the first military exercise with the two nations since they signed a historic security pact in July. Japan an the Philippines are looking for further security cooperation to deter China’s recent spree of aggression.

Why This Matters

The Philippines are geographically located in one of the world’s most important maritime zones. China also lays formal claims to most of the South China Sea. To strengthen those claims, China has carried out aggressive naval practices which have heightened Filipino security concerns.

In 2023, Japan also committed to building its military forces to deter this Chinese aggression. Both countries are partners of the United States, so closer security ties between the two is a welcomed, natural development.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Reuters

✈️ Ukraine Shows Off New American F-16s

On 4 August, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky showed off the first American F-16s to arrive in Ukraine. Since the start of the conflict, Zelensky has asked for modern aircraft to boost Ukraine’s air-to-air combat capability.

Zelensky did not specify how many F-16s Ukraine has acquired, or what combat missions they are flying, only that they are already in use and more pilots are in training.

Why This Matters

Despite the Ukraine receiving advanced air defense systems from Western partners, Russia has maintained air superiority. By having a more robust air-to-air combat capability, Ukraine can better support troops on the ground through combined arms. This also means that Ukraine’s airspace is more dangerous for Russian counterparts.

Comment: The U.S. approved F-16s to Ukraine in August 2023 after long debates in government. For context, NATO member Slovakia purchased F-16s in 2018 and received their two last month.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by CNN

End Brief

Thanks for checking out another Monday morning brief.

See you on Thursday @ 0630 ET!

Nick