Good morning,

I hope you had a good weekend.

Today we are covering the Republican majority in Congress, the Russia-Ukraine situation, US sanctions on Iran, and the Biden-Xi meeting.

Estimated Read Time: 5 minutes, 30 seconds

Reporting Period: 15-17 November 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

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Republicans Control Congress, Select Senate Majority Leader

On 14 November, NPR reported that the Republican Party has secured control off Congress with 53 Senate seats and a majority in the House. Mike Johnson (R-LA) must acquire 218 votes on 3 January 2025 in order to remain the House majority leader.

In the Senate, Senator John Thune (R-SD) was selected as the majority leader. He replaced Senator McConnell (R-KY) who plans to retire. Thune stated his eagerness in working with House colleagues to “enact President Trump’s agenda.”

President-elect Trump is seeking the approval of recess cabinet appointments which would effectively circumvent Congressional vetting precedent.

Why This Matters

Congress is our Legislative body of government and has key responsibilities:

• Legislation: Both the House and Senate can propose bills to change laws or institute new ones. Both chambers must pass a bill before it can become law, but with a total majority it looks like Republicans can get a lot done.

• Funding: A part of the legislation that Congress looks to pass each year is budgeting and spending bills. This effects things like defense, education, and healthcare. Congress urgently needs to build a spending bill at present.

• Treaties and Appointments: The Senate holds special responsibilities which include ratifying treaties negotiated by the President and confirming his appointments to courts, cabinets, or other offices. This is currently a contentious issue as Trump is hoping to make recess cabinet appointments.

• Committees and Investigations: Congressmen of both chambers can call hearings or investigations on various issues, the results of which may influence bills, lead to impeachments, or make new appointments, for example.

• War Powers: Only Congress has the power to formally declare war despite the President’s emergency powers.

The opportunity for Trump and Republicans to institute necessary policies and changes across myriad issues has never been better. This is a zero-excuses situation that is, as Senator Thune stated, “a mandate from the American people.”

Americans expect issues like immigration, energy, education, and foreign wars to be addressed quickly and substantively.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by NPR

• Additional coverage by NPR

• Thune to be majority leader by Reuters

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Biden Pushes Ukraine Aid Before Trump Term, Complicates Peace Negotiations With Long-Range Strikes

On 13 November in Brussels, Belgium, Secretary of State Antony Blinken shared remarks with media regarding his meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, and other NATO officials.

Blinken further stated that President Biden is committed to getting more aid for Ukraine before his term ends.

On 16 November, Zelenskyy stated that the war will end “sooner” than it would have once President-elect Trump enters office. Despite those remarks, Zelenskyy also stated that Putin is not interested in peace negotiations, but holding talks with foreign leaders to end Russia’s international isolation. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held a phone call with Putin to discuss openness to peace negotiations. It was the first time they have spoken directly since 2022.

On 17 November, Biden gave Ukraine approval to conduct long-range strikes with American weapons on targets inside Russia. Putin previously stated that this decision, if approved, would be considered a direct escalation by NATO. The decision also contradicts previous statements that the US, Ukraine, and allies were open to starting peace talks. It is uncertain if Biden made this decision to complicate President-elect Trump’s position before he takes office in January.

Why This Matters

President-elect Trump takes office on 20 January 2025 and is expected to change America’s Ukraine policy while also pursuing peace negotiations with Russia and Ukraine. Trump and Republicans in Congress have questioned the amount of aid being sent to Ukraine and desire a more isolated and protectionist stance. Part of this policy view is due to growing concerns regarding Iranian and Chinese aggressions in their respective regions.

As of September 2024, Congress has approved five bills worth $175 billion in aid to Ukraine. International partners have provided nearly $150 billion. The spending also includes funding for government-led support activities.

While financial and military aid has undoubtedly ensured Ukraine’s survival, it is uncertain how much longer Ukraine can sustain its current disposition. Various Russian offensives, as in Kursk and Donetsk, are straining Ukraine’s supplies and manpower. Additionally, large-scale drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and cities, like Kyiv, have increased.

Biden and the State Department have also supported future NATO membership for Ukraine, a condition Russia is unlikely to accept in future peace negotiations.

Want To Read More?

• Blinken’s statement by US Department of State

• Biden approves long-range strikes by NPR

• Statement on meeting with Ukrainian minister by US Department of State

• US aid to Ukraine by CFR

• Zelenskyy’s remarks by RFE/RL

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US Expands Sanctions On Iran’s Oil Tanker ‘Ghost Fleet’

On 14 November, the US Department of State announced that it is sanctioning 26 entities, individuals, and ships associated with the Syrian Al-Qatirji Company. Al-Qatirji has ties to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Iranian Supreme Leader’s private force that funds, organizes, and supports Iran’s terrorist proxies in the Middle East.

Al-Qatirji generates funding for the IRGC and the Houthis by illegally selling Iranian oil via a “ghost fleet.” The ghost fleet skirts US and international sanctions through maritime loopholes, such as “flag hopping,” forming shell companies, and exchanging asset ownership.

One source claims Iran’s ghost fleet sold more than 1.8 million barrels of oil per day in 2023.

Why This Matters

Iran’s ghost fleet has provided “hundreds of millions” of dollars worth of funding to the IRGC and the Houthis. These funds, which likely contributed to the 7 October 2023 attack on Israel, continue to arm Iranian terrorist proxies in Yemen, Lebanon, and Gaza. Iran also uses the money for its own weapons production, some of which are used by Russia in Ukraine.

Despite the Office of the Director of National Intelligence stating in October that Iran is not developing nuclear weapons, the Biden administration said the ghost fleet funds were being used for Tehran’s nuclear program.

The Biden administration issued sanctions on Iran’s oil sector following the 1 October missile attack on Israel. The decision to institute more sanctions shows continuity in objectives between Biden and the incoming Trump administration; specifically, pressuring and weakening the regime in Iran while supporting Israeli operations in the region.

Want To Read More?

• Statement by US Department of State

• Iran’s ghost fleet by UANI

• Ghost fleet numbers by IntelliNews

• Previous sanctions by The Times of Israel

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EU Approves First-Ever Common Defense Procurement Fund

On 13 November, the European Commission announced the approval of €300 million (approx. $315 million) for 5 defense industrial projects. The funding is a part of the European Defense Industry Reinforcement through Common Procurement (EDIRPA) program. Twenty EU member states are participating in the selected projects.

Additional projects have been added to a reserve list and are pending funding or a change in strategic needs.

The projects being funded are as follows:

Why This Matters

This is a significant development that signals Europe’s desire to reduce foreign dependency on its security. Most nations in Europe are NATO members and rely heavily on US funding and leadership to organize their defense posture.

It also signals Europe’s need to further deter threats such as drones and ballistic missiles. Most of all, this is a sign that Europe is becoming fully aligned against Russian aggression in its perceived sphere of influence, most notably the former Soviet Union.

Want To Read More?

• Announcement by the European Commission

• About EDIRPA by the European Commission

• IRIS-T by DW

• MISTRAL by MBDA

• CAVS by Global Security

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In Meeting With Biden, Xi Seeks To Level Relations With US

On 16 November, Chinese leader Xi Jinping met with President Biden at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru. In their bilateral meeting, the pair discussed Taiwan, democracy, human rights, international development, President-elect Trump, and artificial intelligence (AI).

Chinese state media Xinhua echoed Xi’s talking points and stated that issues like Taiwan and economic development are “red lines” for China and should not be challenged.

Before that meeting, Xi said he was ready to work with Trump. Xi stated he would like to “maintain communication, expand cooperation and manage differences,” and ensure a “smooth transition of the China-US relationship.” As Trump prepares to enter office in January 2025, there is wide speculation that his proposed administration will be hawkish on China and launch a new trade war alongside expanded aid to Taiwan.

Why This Matters

Biden’s China strategy was initially undefined, reactionary, and unpredictable. On various occasions, Biden received criticism for going back and forth when asked if the US would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.

Biden’s administration eventually developed a plan for the Pacific which included military aid to Taiwan and deeper defense cooperation with Indo-Pacific partners like South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia.

However, Biden’s administration failed to pivot from economic integration with China. It also failed to expel or reduce CCP influence on US politics, educational institutions, and cyber infrastructure.

Xi’s apparent openness to working with Trump is likely a ploy for gaining diplomatic concessions through the “good faith” posture that was effective against Biden’s team. Re-established “red lines” also suggest China will resolutely resist any US policies that aim to hinder Beijing’s strategic goals, namely the forced integration of Taiwan into the mainland.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by CNBC

• Coverage by ABC News

• Coverage by The Guardian

End Brief

That concludes this brief. I hope you learned something.

Please reach out with questions, comments, or concerns: [email protected] 

See you Thursday,

Nick