Good morning,

What better way to start your week than with an update of some major news from around the globe? This is your Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief.

Reporting Period: 15-18 August

Bottom Line Up Front:

Missed the Sunday SITREP? Check it out here.

Russia Diverting Troops To Deal With Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion

On 15 August, CNN reported that Russia has diverted thousands of troops from occupied Ukraine to counter-attack and seize the Kursk region. Kursk is Russian territory that was invaded by Ukrainian forces on 8 August.

Ukraine currently holds more than 380 square miles of territory in the Kursk region. CNN’s sources suggest “multiple brigade-sized elements made up of at least 1,000 troops each” have diverted to seize Kursk.

Ukraine have destroyed two bridges along the Seym River in Kursk to create a logistics dilemma for Russia and make a counter-attack more difficult.

Why This Matters

The Kursk operation was a surprise to both US officials. Ukraine did not initially acknowledge the operation during its early success. Many believe the operation was launched specifically to divert Russian troops from the Ukrainian battlefield.

The battlefield in Ukraine is nearly 600 miles long. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that although Russia is diverting resources, it does not indicate that “Mr. Putin has given up military operations in the northeast part of Ukraine or even down towards the south.”

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by CNN

• Detailed report by ISW

• Coverage by Sky News

Rep. James Comer Launches Investigation Into Gov. Tim Walz’s Connection To CCP

In a 16 August post on X, the House Oversight Committee announced that Chairman James Comer is launching an investigation into Governor Tim Walz’s connections to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Tim Walz was recently selected as Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate for the upcoming presidential election.

Comer highlighted a list of concerns regarding Walz’s relationship with China, specifically 30 visits to the country and a fellowship position at a CCP linked-institution. Comer requested information from the FBI.

(No commentary for this event)

Ukraine, United Kingdom Begins Negotiations For Century-Long Partnership

Ukrainian and British representatives held negotiations on 13 August to discuss a century-long pact between the two nations. The proposed agreement would build upon a 2020 agreement that committed a deeper political, trade, and security relationship between Ukraine and the UK. The United Kingdom were the first country to sign a security agreement with Ukraine following the 2022 Russian invasion.

Why This Matters

The UK have been staunch supporters of Ukraine during their war with Russia. Currently, UK-made Challenger tanks are being used in a Ukrainian operation on Russian soil (Kursk).

The UK’s negotiations are not only a step towards greater security cooperation, but an investment into Ukraine’s future. The UK see Ukraine as a future industrial and agriculture base.

Additionally, this bilateral dialogue could be viewed as an indirect path towards NATO membership for Ukraine.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Newsweek

Secretary of State Blinken Arrives In Israel To Discuss Ceasefire In Gaza

On 18 August, Antony Blinken arrived in Israel to work on securing the release of hostages and reach a mutual ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. This is Blinken’s ninth visit to the region since 7 October 2023. He will stay until 20 August.

Hamas officials state a ceasefire cannot be made until Israel withdraws its troops from Gaza.

Why This Matters

Blinken’s visit may be to pursue a ceasefire and hostage releases, but it is also aimed at cooling regional tensions. For two weeks, the US and Israeli officials have warned of an imminent attack by Iran and its proxies following the Israeli assassination of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders. Iran has yet to retaliate for reasons unknown.

A short-term ceasefire, like the previous one in November 2023, is most likely. That deal led to the release of 105 hostages, 240 Palestinian prisoners, and a week-long ceasefire.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by BBC

Vietnam’s New Leader Visits China To Strengthen Ties

On 18 August, Vietnam’s new General Secretary of the ruling Communist Paty, To Lam, arrived in Guangzhou, China. Lam previously acted as Vietnam’s president, but secured the country’s top political position following the death of Nguyen Phu Trong in July.

Nguyen Phu Trong pursued a policy of normalization with China, and Lam’s ongoing visit indicates the intent to continue that policy. Lam is also likely to continue growing Vietnam’s relationship with the United States as indicated in the state-run Global Times newspaper.

Last year, Vietnam designated Japan and the United States as “comprehensive strategic partners,” the highest diplomatic designation Vietnam offers.

Lam is expected to meet with China’s paramount leader Xi Jinping.

Why This Matters

China appears to be actively countering a growing American-led alliance by looking for partners of its own. The growing ties between China and Vietnam are a part of China’s slow growth of influence across the Pacific. The US has been aggressively expanding partnerships with Indo-Pacific nations as a means of countering China’s growth and aggression.

The case with Vietnam is interesting due to China and Vietnam having competing territorial claims within the South China sea. Additionally, China’s 1979 invasion of Vietnam had left Sino-Vietnamese relations in ruins until Nguyen Phu Trong began the to normalize them under his rule.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by AP News

End Brief

That concludes this Monday morning brief. I hope you learned something.

The next brief is coming on Thursday @ 0630.

Have a great week,

Nick