Good morning,

This is your Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Before Trump’s inauguration dominates mainstream media, let’s review some key updates from the weekend.

Reporting Period: 16-20 January 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

REMINDER: Donald Trump Inauguration Today

Summary
Today, Donald Trump will be inaugurated as the 47th President of the United States. J.D. Vance will serve as the 50th Vice President.

Findings
The swearing-in ceremony is at 12:00 p.m. EST.
Following the swearing-in, Trump will partake in the signing ceremony where he fills out transitional documents.

Some notable personalities who are reportedly attending:

• Presidents: Bill Clinton, George Bush, Barack Obama

• Foreign Officials: Han Zheng (Vice President, China), Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister, Israel), Javier Milei (President, Argentina), Nigel Farage (Member of Parliament, UK), Tino Chrupalla (AfD party co-leader, Germany), Mateusz Morawiecki (Prime Minister, Poland), Giorgia Meloni (Prime Minister, Italy)

• Businessmen: Elon Musk (X, Tesla, Space X), Jeff Bezos (Amazon), Mark Zuckerberg (Meta), Shou Zi Chew (Tik Tok), Tim Cook (Apple), Sam Altman (OpenAI)

Why This Matters
Donald Trump is expected to have a rigorous and energetic first 100 days. Here is what I think he will focus on during that period.

• Domestic: I think is is likely Trump will undue Biden’s energy policies and will look to expand the US energy base, particularly for natural gas export. I think it is likely that Trump, playing into the support for the Laken Riley Act, will look to enforce US immigration law and begin deporting illegal migrants, beginning with criminal offenders. I think it is likely that Trump will fire some high-level military officials, especially those affiliated with the Afghanistan withdrawal.

• Russia-Ukraine: Trump is very likely to pursue a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, and achievement that would earn him a lot of prestige around the globe. I believe Trump will use US commitments to NATO to coerce European allies into supporting a deal that is favorable to Russia. I think Trump will struggle more than he thinks due to allies labelling such a deal, despite battlefield realities, as appeasement.

• Iran: Trump will have a short window to determine if Iran can be coerced into abandoning its nuclear program through diplomatic means. I think Trump is very likely to meet/talk with Israeli PM Netanyahu to discuss Iran policy and the potential for carrying out military strikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities.

• EU: I think Trump is going to look reinforce the US-EU relationship, but is going to push hard for advantageous trade and economic deals. In general, Trump is very likely to use the threat of tariffs in pursuit of favorable deals for the United States.

• China: Western media has been portraying Trump as a China-appeaser, mostly due to him inviting Xi Jinping to his inauguration. However, Trump is pursuing a policy of frequent, high-level diplomacy to deter Chinese military aggression in the Indo-Pacific. China are happy to entertain such coordination in an effort to avoid a trade war. I think Trump will continue to support Taiwan, but will ask for a more economically lucrative agreement with Taipei. Remember, the invasion of Taiwan could be in 2027, so Trump has vested interest in ending other conflicts, reallocating US resources to the Pacific, and try to reach a diplomatic solution with Xi.

France To Host Syria Conference, Support New Government

Summary
On 16 January, France’s presidential office stated the country intends to host an international conference on Syria in February. France states it wants to ensure “a fair and inclusive political transition that respects the rights of all Syrians.”

Findings

• Conference: The international conference is scheduled for 13 February 2025 in Paris.

• Rebuilding Syria: Syria has experienced war for more than 13 years. The French Foreign Minister stated that Syria’s reconstruction — and the establishment of a just, legitimate government — would require lifting sanctions and providing aid. This is not likely to receive unanimous support from the international community and is especially dependent on who will run Syria next. This also begs the question: Which nations will attend the conference?

• Ahmed al-Sharaa: Al-Sharaa (whose Jihadist moniker is Abu Mohammed al-Jolani) is the leader of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (HTS), the group that took Damascus and ousted the Assad regime. Al-Sharaa has formed affiliations to ISIS and al-Qaeda and is the current de facto ruler of Syria.

Why This Matters
France, the West, and its partners may be trying to establish a new government in Syria for prestige, influence, and to promote democratic principles abroad.

However, there is no indication that this pursuit will garner international support, let alone unanimous support in the West (the de facto ruler is a terrorist). Additionally, there are various influential armed factions still operating in Syria, each of which has their own ambitions for their group.

It is possible that the US will work with a new Syrian government run by al-Sharaa in order to re-stabilize the region, keep troops deployed closer to Iran, and keep the Assad regime in exile in Russia.

Sources: France 24, SyriacPress, CNN

Israeli Government Approves Ceasefire With Hamas

Summary
On 17 January, Israel’s government approved a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza. The deal includes the release of hostages in its first phase. Phase two is under negotiation.

Hamas released a propaganda video showing their release of hostages:

Findings

• Agreement: Earlier last week, media outlets began reporting that a ceasefire deal had been reached in principle but would require approval by Israel’s government. There was initial hesitation as Israel wanted a list of hostages scheduled for release.

• Effect: On 19 January, the ceasefire agreement went into effect. The Times of Israel reported that three hostages had been freed, indicating Hamas were acting in accordance with the agreement. Thirty-three Israeli hostages are set to be exchanged for 1,904 Palestinian prisoners.
  Netanyahu said fighting will resume if necessary.

• Phase Two: One of the ceasefire conditions is that if prisoner exchanges are fulfilled and fighting stops, negotiating parties may resume their dialogue and work towards a total release of hostages. Phase two could also end the war outright.

Why This Matters
In my opinion, the hostage deal is reflective of Israel’s successful campaign against Iran’s proxies as well as Netanyahu looking for a conclusion to the conflict to diminish criticism of Israel and his regime there.

• Iran’s Proxies: Israel has successfully waged ground and air campaigns against all of Iran’s major proxies in the region (Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas). Israel also carried out devastating strikes in Iran which crippled Tehran’s ability to defense itself and still provide support to its affiliates. In other words, Hamas were compelled to reach a ceasefire agreement because they cannot win a prolonged conflict against Israel — not one of this nature anyways.

• Israel and Netanyahu: Israel’s various wars have drawn a lot of criticism from abroad. They have also increased regional tensions and, in some regards, destabilized the region further. Netanyahu has faced widespread criticism, even from within his own party, and is likely trying to recoup some domestic support.

• Trump: With Trump’s return — and his commitment to a “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, Netanyahu has a golden opportunity to reassess policy in the region. Remember, Hamas is still operational which means it is still a threat. While a ceasefire offers an opportunity for reprieve and public relations touch-ups, Israel’s security concerns remain constant.

Bottom-line: Let’s wait and see what Trump’s plan for the Middle East is, what will happen in Syria, and if Phase Two of negotiations even progress.

Sources: NPR, BBC, The Times of Israel, NBC News

Polish President: Russia Planned “Terror Attacks"

Summary
Polish President Donald Tusk claimed that Russia had planned to carry out various “terror attacks” on airlines. Following Tusk’s remarks, a Chatham House analyst warned Newsweek that Moscow is prepared to carry out “mass casualty” attacks in NATO countries.

Findings

• Airline Attacks: On 15 January, Tusk made his accusation alongside Ukrainian President Zelenskyy. On 25 December, Russian air defenses shot down an Azerbaijani airliner, killing 38 people. In November 2024, Russia was linked to the discovery of incendiary devices found on planes in Germany and the United Kingdom.

• Hybrid Warfare: Since the 2022 invasion, NATO warned that Russia would increase its hybrid warfare activities. Since May 2024, NATO has warned that Russian hybrid warfare schemes were increasing against NATO member states.

Why This Matters
Russia has been conducting hybrid warfare schemes for various reasons and effects:

• Incur Costs: The perpetration of these schemes requires the targeted nations to respond, resolve, repair, report, and react to hybrid warfare threats and effects. In the case of Poland, the use of forced migration into Poland by Russia and Belarus has extolled high costs and efforts to policing, border patrols, and intelligence.

• Fear: The fear of threats, damage, and danger can cause a society to pressure its leaders into adopting certain policies. For example, a city that fears bombings may pressure its officials to enact new law enforcement policies, lobby to national leaders, or pressure certain policies to end (i.e. support for Ukraine or taking in refugees).

• Plausible Deniability: Some of Russia’s schemes employ people sympathetic to Moscow or agents who cannot be directly linked to the Kremlin. This means Russia can conduct hybrid warfare operations that meet their strategic goals while denying any formal involvement.

Sources: Sky News, Newsweek, Newsweek

Ukraine Update: 100-Year Partnerships With UK, UNSC Cautions Russia Appeasement

Summary
President Trump’s goal is to end the war in Ukraine in his first 100 days. A 100-year strategic partnership between the UK and Ukraine and a warning against appeasing Russian interests in negotiations indicate Trump may face more friction from allies than previously thought.

Findings

• 100-Year Partnership: The partnership commits London and Kyiv to deeper cooperation on defense (such as training, air defense systems procurement, maritime security in the Black Sea, weapons production, and industrial output) and technology. Starmer stated that the UK will “play our part” in guaranteeing Ukrainian security and sovereignty following the end of the ongoing conflict. The deal includes £3 billion of British support to Ukraine annually and will continue indefinitely.
  The agreement has received wide support in Europe and can be viewed as the UK’s informal endorsement of NATO membership for Ukraine. Germany, Slovakia, Hungary, and the United States currently do not support Ukrainian NATO membership.

• UN Security Council: At a meeting of the UN Security Council, a US official made a statement urging world leaders to avoid peace conditions that favor Russia, indicating the Trump may face pushback from American lawmakers and European allies.

• CEPA: The Center for European Policy Analysis offered an assessment of how Ukrainian allies can support Kyiv given the likelihood of peace favoring Russia and NATO barring Ukraine from joining the alliance. CEPA suggests proliferating the use of previous arrangements, such as giving aid through the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), boosting foreign military sales, expanding intelligence sharing, and increasing research and development programs. The piece reflects the reality that even if peace is reached, Russia remains a primary threat to Ukraine and NATO.

Why This Matters
Russia’s battlefield successes, Europe’s continued aid to Kyiv, and Trump’s presidency all complicate the likelihood of peace in Ukraine.

All parties are seeking peace, but getting there is where disagreements abound (eve between allies).

It is likely that these complications will prolong Trump’s plan to end the war on day one of his presidency. What is likely is a peace, favorable to Russia and excluding Ukrainian NATO membership, in a few months.

Sources: AP News, The Guardian, US Mission to the UN, NBC News, CEPA

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thanks for reading it.

Do me a favor? Think of one person who would enjoy reading this brief at work, on their commute, or during some downtime. Once you do that, forward it to them!

Thanks for your support,

Nick