- The Intel Brief
- Posts
- Monday Morning Brief (17-20 October)
Monday Morning Brief (17-20 October)
Hamas leader dead, NATO ministers meet, and China is told to prepare for war. Plus more...
Nick
October 21, 2024
Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals
Good morning,
It’s the start of a new week, so here is your Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. This brief is shorter than usual. You should only need about 5 minutes for it.
Reporting Period: 17-20 October
Bottom Line Up Front:
1. The US is sanctioning some Chinese firms. The Treasury is sanctioning Chinese companies that make drone parts for Russia’s war in Ukraine. The companies had averted sanctions under a “dual use” guise, but the Treasury has worked around it.
2. Israel killed Hamas’ military leader. Yahya Sinwar (Hamas) was killed by IDF forces when they stumbled upon his position during urban operations in Rafah. The US believes there is an opportunity for ceasefire and a release of hostages now.
3. Xi Jinping told the PLA to prepare for war. Following the “Joint Sword-2024B” exercise that surrounded Taiwan, Xi urged his forces to further develop the skills they need in order to fight and win in combat.
4. NATO’s defense ministers convened. They discussed security cooperation and deterrence in the complex global security environment. Ukraine remained the priority, but the alliance has growing concerns in Iran, China, and North Korea.
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇷🇺
US Issues Sanctions On Chinese Firms For Selling Drones To Russia
On 17 October, the US Treasury Department issued sanctions to two Chinese firms and their Russian partners for the supply of drones to Russia’s war effort. The US has long accused China of selling “dual use” drones to Russia, but this is the first time it has done so openly.
The Treasury pointed out that while the US has sanctioned Chinese firms that construct and sell weapons components that this is the first time it is sanctioning a firm for the sale of a complete weapons system.
The sanctioned firms construct and sell components of the “Garpiya,” a long-range unmanned aerial system that Russia has used to target critical Ukrainian military and civil infrastructure.
Why This Matters
The sanctions highlight the complexity of contemporary politics and supply chain manipulations. China has cleverly sold Russia products labelled as dual use, implying they are being sold for other intended purposes and that the seller has no control over how the product is used.
The sanctions also show a slight shift in Sino-US relations. Due to the massive economic ties between China and the US, Washington has often turned a blind eye to some Chinese practices. Now, as China begins to openly support US adversaries – and ramp up its aggression on Taiwan – the new sanctions are a pointed message that Beijing should tread carefully on the world stage.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by CNN
🇮🇱 🇵🇸 🇮🇷
IDF Kill Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar
On 24 October, Israel announced that IDF soldiers killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar during urban operations in Rafah, southern Gaza. Sinwar was Israel’s “most wanted” person of interest for his planning and coordination of the 7 October attack on Israel. Sinwar had previously evaded the IDF during other operations.
The IDF also released drone footage that allegedly depicts Sinwar in his final moments before IDF soldiers assaulted his position.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the world following Sinwar’s death. Some of what he highlighted:
Sinwar masterminded the greatest attack against Jews since the Holocaust
“Beginning of the end” of the war in Gaza
War can end if Hamas lays downs arms and returns hostages
Continued terrorism will be answered with force
Why This Matters
Israel has now killed Hamas’ core leaders - Sinwar as the military head and Ismail Haniyeh, the former political leader. The US said Sinwar’s death might yield the opportunity for a ceasefire and the release of hostages.
Khalil Al Hayya, a high-level Hamas official, said the terrorist group would not release hostages until the war in Gaza stops.
Netanyahu’s address seemed to indicate that Israel may be open to ceasefire negotiations but only on the condition that Hamas does not partake in terrorist acts and the final hostages are released. Israel is currently engaged in operations against Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by CNN
Netanyahu’s message by NBC News
🇨🇳 🇹🇼
Xi Jinping Tells PLA To Prepare For War
On 19 October, Chinese state-media outlet CCTV reported that Xi Jinping had told his forces to prepare for war following the cessation of a PLA military exercise that surrounded Taiwan. Xi urged the PLA to “comprehensively strengthen training and preparation for war, ensure troops have solid combat capabilities.” Xi, while addressing part of the PLA Rocket Force, also mentioned improving strategic deterrence.
Why This Matters
The CCP and PLA are effectively coordinating their Taiwan strategy. In typical Xi fashion, his threatening rhetoric follows a robust and comprehensive PLA action that Taiwan and its allies are powerless to do anything about.
The Cross-Strait issue is debated from many sides. Some observers say a war between China and Taiwan will not happen, particularly due to Sino-American economic ties. However, the US faces a strategic dilemma: 1.) Take threats seriously and also prepare, thereby provoking China closer to a kinetic engagement and 2.) Write off the threats as a bluff and be ill-prepared, making China’s opportunity window more comfortable.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by TRT World
Coverage by NDTV World
🇺🇸 🇬🇧 🇪🇺
NATO Defence Ministers Meeting In Brussels
On 17 October, NATO Defence Ministers met in Brussels, along with the four Indo-Pacific Partners (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea) and EU representatives, to discuss deterrence and security challenges in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Pacific. This was Mark Rutte’s first Defence Minister Meeting as the Secretary General.
The ministers highlighted the need for greater security investment and cooperation due to the complex global security environment. Specifically, they mentioned how Russia’s war in Ukraine has increased tensions by Iran, China, and North Korea.
Ukraine remained the focus. NATO has agreed to give Ukraine 40 billion euros.
On 19 October, Mark Rutte met with the G7 Defence Ministers in Naples, Italy. As NATO’s most capable leaders, the G7 held a separate meeting to discuss support for Ukraine, defense industrial production, and military technology innovation.
NATO is also scheduled to revise the 1997 Russia-NATO Founding Act which previously tried to formalized relations between Russia and the alliance as cooperative and peaceful.
Why This Matters
NATO’s priority is clear: Support Kyiv as much as possible to deliver a Ukrainian victory if possible. Neither Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump have clear policies on how they would support Ukraine.
NATO’s invitation to its Indo-Pacific partners underscores growing concerns about China and North Korea. While the alliance has previously expressed a desire for a stronger deterrent presence in the region, the aggressive stances of both Beijing toward Taiwan and Pyongyang toward South Korea seem to be outpacing those intentions by NATO.
Want To Read More?
End Brief
That concludes this brief. I hope it got you up to speed on a few things.
See you on Thursday,
Nick