Good morning,

This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s review some critical geopolitical updates from this weekend.

Reporting Period: 17-21 April 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Trump Pursues Diplomatic Resolution With Iran, Blocked Israeli Strikes

Summary
President Trump has reportedly blocked a planned Israeli military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, favoring diplomatic negotiations instead. The Israeli operation, intended to delay Iran's nuclear program by at least a year, was contingent on U.S. support. Trump's decision to pursue diplomacy has led to internal divisions within both the U.S. administration and Israeli leadership. A second round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks is scheduled in Rome.​

Findings

• Planned Israeli Strike: Israel had developed plans to attack Iranian nuclear sites, aiming to impede Iran's nuclear capabilities. The operation required U.S. logistical and defensive support. Trump ultimately decided against supporting the strike, opting for diplomatic engagement with Iran.

• Internal U.S. Debate: Within the Trump administration, there was a split regarding support for Israel's plan. Vice President Vance, Defense Secretary Hegseth, and Director of National Intelligence Gabbard opposed the strike, while CENTCOM Commander General Kurilla and National Security Advisor Waltz were in favor. Despite some military preparations, Trump chose diplomacy.

• Israeli Political Fallout: The leak of the blocked strike has intensified political tensions in Israel. Opposition leader Yair Lapid criticized Prime Minister Netanyahu for not proceeding with the attack, accusing him of lacking resolve. Netanyahu's office highlighted past covert operations against Iran but did not directly address the recent reports.

• Iran's Stance: Iran remains skeptical of U.S. intentions, insisting on the continuation of its uranium enrichment program. While both the U.S. and Iran described initial talks as "constructive," Iran has set clear boundaries for the negotiations. Iran has apparently attempted to draw Russia’s influence into negotiations, with the Iranian Foreign Minister meeting with Foreign Minister Lavrov on 18 April.

Why This Matters
President Trump's decision to block Israel's planned strike on Iran and pursue diplomatic negotiations marks a significant shift in U.S. Middle East policy. This approach aims to prevent a potential escalation into a broader regional conflict. However, it has caused friction with Israel, a key U.S. ally, and has led to political upheaval within Israeli leadership. The success of the upcoming negotiations in Rome will be pivotal in determining the future of Iran's nuclear program and regional stability.​

Sources: The Jerusalem Post, Yahoo! News, The Jerusalem Post

U.S. Signals Possible Withdrawal From Russia-Ukraine Negotiations, Demands Progress

Summary
The United States has indicated it may withdraw from mediating peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine if significant progress is not achieved soon. President Trump and Secretary of State Rubio have expressed frustration over the stalemate, suggesting that ongoing talks are approaching a critical juncture. While recent discussions in Paris were deemed constructive, continued Russian military actions and rigid demands have impeded a breakthrough. A subsequent round of negotiations is anticipated in London.

Findings

• U.S. Efforts: Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the U.S. is prepared to "move on" from its role in the peace process if tangible progress is not made within days. President Trump echoed this sentiment, emphasizing that the negotiations are "coming to a head" and expressing a willingness to "take a pass" on further mediation efforts.

• Recent Efforts’ Momentum: Talks held in Paris involving U.S., European, and Ukrainian leaders were described as constructive, with discussions on a potential 30-day ceasefire. However, Russia's continued military actions, including strikes on Ukrainian cities like Kharkiv and Sumy, have undermined these efforts.

• Russia's Stance: The Kremlin has expressed openness to dialogue but maintains firm conditions for any ceasefire, including territorial concessions and political guarantees. Russian officials have indicated that any agreement should be on their terms, reflecting their current advancements on the battlefield.

• U.S.-Ukraine Economic Initiatives: Amid the diplomatic efforts, the U.S. and Ukraine have signed a memorandum of intent outlining a forthcoming minerals and reconstruction investment deal. This agreement aims to strengthen economic ties and support Ukraine's post-war recovery, contingent on the success of the peace negotiations.

Why This Matters
The potential withdrawal of the United States from the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations marks a significant shift in the diplomatic landscape. Such a move could diminish the prospects for a negotiated settlement and embolden further military actions by Russia. The U.S.'s involvement has been pivotal in coordinating international support for Ukraine, and its absence may lead to increased instability in the region. Moreover, the situation tests the efficacy of the Trump administration's negotiation strategies and their impact on global conflict resolution.

Sources: The Kyiv Independent, BBC, CNN

USAF Planning Upgrades To E-7A Wedgetail Years Ahead Of Deliveries

Summary
The U.S. Air Force issued a request for information regarding upgrades to the E-7A Wedgetail. Despite being a prototype, the USAF wants to field the aircraft with state-of-the-art equipment, keeping the platform highly capable and relevant. Wedgetail prototypes should be delivered to the Air Force this year.

Findings

• Request for Information: The U.S. Air Force released a request for information to the private sector, asking for “cutting-edge” technologies that could be integrated into the E-7A Wedgetail, a prototype airborne sensor and command and control aircraft.
  The USAF is looking for new sensors, communications capabilities, and electronic warfare defense systems.

• Background: In 2024, Boeing and the USAF signed a $2.6 billion contract to deliver two prototype E-7A Wedgetails. The Wedgetail is a modified version of the Boeing 737-700, and is fitted with a Multi-Role Electronically Scanned Array Radar. The first Wedgetails are scheduled for delivery in FY-28 despite some variants being fielded by Australia, Turkey, and South Korea.

• Fleet Expansion: The Air Force plans to procure a total of 26 E-7A aircraft by fiscal year 2032, with the first operational aircraft expected to be fielded by fiscal year 2027.

• Role: The E-7A will conduct airborne surveillance and command and control, two roles critical to identifying airborne threats and coordinating allied aircraft in an airspace.

Why This Matters
The transition to the E-7A Wedgetail represents a significant modernization effort for the U.S. Air Force's airborne early warning and command and control capabilities. By proactively planning upgrades and expanding the fleet, the Air Force aims to maintain a technological edge in battle management and command and control operations. This initiative also underscores the importance of interoperability with allied forces and the need to address evolving global threats.

Sources: Inside Defense, USAF Reserve,

UN Security Council To Meet This Week

Summary
This week, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is scheduled to meet for a multi-day session. The UNSC will convene to discuss various global issues. Some topics will be addressed via private sessions.

Findings

• Background: The UN Security Council has 15 members. Five are permanent (The U.S., UK, France, Russia, and China) while 10 non-permanent members are elected to temporary positions. The UNSC can convene at any time, and typically does so to address or prevent global crises.

The UN’s program of work calendar identifies the agenda for the UNSC session:

• Monday, 21 April: Adoption of the agenda and “the question concerning Haiti.”

• Tuesday, 22 April: Council members will receive a briefing on the ongoing violence in Colombia. Colombian forces have experienced renewed conflict with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), much of which has led to increased crime, kidnappings, and murders.

• Wednesday, 23 April: China is hosting its own meeting where its representatives will discuss “The Impact of Unilateralism and Bullying Practices on International Relations.”

• Friday, 25 April: Members will receive a meeting on the situation in the Middle East, which is likely to include a discussion on ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and Israel’s operations in Gaza. The session will also include a specific briefing on the situation in Syria.

Some reporting also suggests that Thursday, 24 April, will be reserved for a special, private briefing on the situation in Ukraine and the status of ceasefire negotiations.

Why This Matters
The timing of the UNSC meeting is interesting, particularly as crises in Haiti and Colombia persist. What is more interesting is the Council’s interest in the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

China’s solo session is a good example of the UN in its current state: A globalist’s formal bureaucracy employed to garner soft power and influence for abusers while simultaneously lacking the authority and means to address or resolve crises.

Sources: United Nations, Security Council Report

End Brief

That concludes this brief. Thanks for reading!

See you Thursday,

Nick