Good morning,

This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief.

Reporting Period: 19-23 December 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Governor Abbott Announces New Border Policy, Report IDs Expansion Of Mexican Cartels

Summary
On 19 December, Texas Governor Greg Abbott unveiled his “new border security strategy” designed to deter illegal immigration to Texas and the US. On 12 December, a report by IISS outlined how Mexico’s cartels have grown and expanded illicit operations. Trump takes office in January 2025 and is committed to growing Border Patrol and enforcing US immigration laws.

Findings

• Operation Lone Star: In 2021, Abbott launched Operation Lone Star due to the Biden administration’s poor border policies. Operation Lone Star included the deployment of the Texas National Guard forces to the border. The Texas government lists Operation Lone Star donations to support future border protection projects:

  • Border Transportation Funding: $460,196

  • Border Wall Funding: $55,427,025

  • Border Security Funding: $102,689

• New Strategy: Abbott announced that Texas will construct billboards with messages, published in various languages, aimed at deterring migrants from entering the US. The billboards cite data and incidents that depict the violent and harsh realities migrants experience at the hands of “coyotes” (i.e. human traffickers). Abbott also said he will work with the Trump administration to identify, locate, and deport illegal migrants.

• Cartels: The cartels operating in Mexico have expanded their synthetic drug production, an illicit industry that fuels the drug crisis in the US. Other major illicit economies are human and arms trafficking. Additionally, the cartels are expanding efforts in the movement of strategic minerals and fake pharmaceuticals.

Why This Matters
In May 2024, the Committee on Homeland Security reported that under the Biden Administration, more than 10 million migrants illegally entered the United States.

Illegal migration poses various risks to an unwilling host nation:

• Security: Undocumented migrants, whose origins, affiliations, and motivations are unknown, pose security risks. This is particularly true on a micro level where some criminal migrants commit violent crimes against citizens.

• Economy: In some states, non-citizens receive tax-payer funded benefits that strain public resources related to healthcare, housing, education, and social services.

• Labor Markets: There is a perpetual narrative that migrants take skilled labor positions or similar opportunities from citizens. There is also an argument that some employers exploit this reality for cheaper labor.

• Cultural Pressure: Sometimes, migrants can strain a native population or culture by shifting a communities makeup — sometimes leading to decreased social cohesion, factionalism, or political and social violence.

Donald Trump has stated his national security leaders and organizations will be instructed to identify, apprehend, and deport migrants who have illegally entered and resided in the United States — a reality often complicated by generational immigration, partial legal residency, or migrants going through the naturalization process.

Sources: Newsnation, YouTube, IISS, Texas Government

Putin Addresses Russia In End-Of-Year Broadcast

Summary
On 19 December, Vladimir Putin held his end-of-year conference. He addressed the Russian people via state media broadcasts. Putin, who views the war in Ukraine as shifting in Russia’s favor, addressed the conflict, the Russian economy, and peace negotiations, among other things.

Findings

• Ukraine War: Putin said Russian troops are making progress on the frontlines everyday, and that he wished he had launched the invasion sooner. He stated that despite a favorable battlefield position and progress in retaking Kursk, he remains open to “compromises.”

• Russian Economy: Putin stated that the inflation of the Ruble remains a significant concern. He has instructed the Russian central bank to address inflation and pursue a 4% growth to the economy. Russia, which is experiencing a labor shortage, has invested the majority of its industrial output into producing military vehicles and munitions — indicating unsustainable economic practices ahead of possible peace talks.

• Peace Talks: Putin said he has not spoken with Trump in four years but is willing to meet the president-elect. Putin says he would meet with Trump for peace talks, but has no reason to meet with Ukrainian officials yet. Putin acknowledged that negotiations would require compromise by both sides, but did not provide details.

Why This Matters
Putin’s address was, reportedly, very typical. It involved a Q/A from citizens but remained very structured and scripted. Putin addressed those key topics with rehearsed answers.

While it is true that Russia’s battlefield position is turning to Moscow’s favor — and Ukraine struggles with manpower and acquiring munitions — Russia’s short-term successes are unsustainable. The Russian economy cannot sustain two more years of conflict at this scale, especially as 2025 will sees Russia’s highest-ever defense budget (nearly 1/3 of its GDP).

Sources: BBC, BBC, Reuters, Al Jazeera, CNBC

NATO Boosts Air Defense In Poland

Summary
On 18 December, Northrop Grumman announced that the Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS) was declared operationally capable. At the same time, Norway has deployed air defense assets to Poland, near the Ukraine border, as Russian conventional and hybrid threats grow.

Findings

• IBCS: Poland is the first US ally to acquire the IBCS. The system is capable of fusing sensor data from existing and future platforms. The system will be central to Poland’s WILSA medium-range and NAREW short-range air defense programs.

• NASAMS: Norway has deployed Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) to Poland’s border with Ukraine in order to improve NATO deterrence and guarantee Ukrainian defense from specific Russian missiles in the event of a ceasefire. Poland also received “several” F-35s to boost the air defense presence there.

• Redzikowo Air Defense Base: This is the first permanent US military based in Poland and is the where the IBCS is operating. The base is one of NATO’s new and critical air defense sites amid growing concerns of conflict with Russia.

Why This Matters
Poland plays a crucial role in NATO's defense strategy, especially given its location in Central Europe, its proximity to Russia, and its growing military capabilities. The country's geopolitical and defense significance is amplified by Russia’s battlefield progress in Ukraine and as the possibility of peace negotiations grows.

• Location: As NATO’s eastern most state, Poland’s geography significantly contributes to NATO deterrence. The ability to deploy assets to Poland also increases the strike and stand-off range of NATO weapons systems.

• Ceasefire: In the event of a peace deal or ceasefire, the deployment of assets to Poland will help deter Russia from possibly breaking or subverting an agreement. This is also significant as both NATO and Russia recently warned of a growing likelihood of conflict with one another.

• Bilateralism: While Poland and the US are critical members to NATO, European politics sometimes strain relations. Recent developments prove that US and Polish bilateralism is growing, offering mutual security and economic guarantees as rumors of diminishing NATO commitments persist.

Sources: Northrop Grumman, Newsweek, The Defense Post

Trump Policy On NATO, EU Becoming Clear

Summary
Media outlets have been reporting on Trump’s possible NATO and EU policies, specifically stating that his administration will demand NATO members spend more on defense. For Europe, Trump wants the EU Commission to establish an oil an gas import deal and has threatened to institute tariffs otherwise. The policies reflect Trump’s continued rhetoric of getting "fair deals” from partners.

Findings

• NATO: On 21 December, POLITICO and Financial Times reported that Trump will ask NATO members to spend 5% of their GDP on defense instead of the current 2%. Trump previously stated that if NATO members do not increase responsibilities and contributions, that the US could withdraw from the alliance. Trump also does not support Ukrainian NATO membership at this time.

• EU: While the security environment in Europe is a unifying force between Europe and the US, economic policy typically causes diplomatic friction. European leaders are expecting an aggressive Trump administration. Chief of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, previously stated she was looking forward to working with Trump and that hoped the US and EU could establish mutually beneficial policies. Trump, who plans to expand US energy production, wants to the EU to purchase gas and oil from the US. If such a deal falls through, Trump could institute tariffs for other European goods as a way of acquiring the lost cashflow from energy.

Why This Matters
Trump is in a good position to establish lucrative trade deals with the EU. The war in Ukraine, myriad political crises (i.e. France and Germany), and America’s dominant role in NATO mean Trump’s leverage supersedes Europe’s.

Additionally, due to Europe paying premiums on energy, a US deal is likely to be more reliable and more attractive than purchasing Russian gas — directly, illicitly, or through a third party.

Sources: Financial Times, POLITICO, CNN, CNBC

Belarus Accuses Lithuania Of Coup Attempt

Summary
On 20 December, the Lithuanian army warned that the Lukashenko regime was orchestrating a campaign to accuse Lithuania and NATO of organizing a coup in Belarus. While insignificant as an isolated incident, the event could be referenced in the future to create a false flag or casus belli regarding a direct conflict with NATO.

Findings

• Accusation: The Baltic Times reported that a November documentary, which aired in Belarus and Russia, outlined Lithuanian efforts to finance, train, and coordinate a Belarusian diaspora for military action against Lukashenko’s regime.

• Elections: Belarus will have presidential elections in January 2024, and observers suggest the documentary was intended to dissuade pro-EU voters. Lukashenko deployed military and law enforcement personnel during the last elections to put down protests and remain in power.

• False Flag: By presenting a controversial narrative to citizens, the documentary provides evidence for a defensive narrative that could, in the event of significant escalations, be used as a “just cause” for war with NATO. Russia has already suggested that war with NATO will come in the 2030s.

Why This Matters
The documentary is mostly being considered a part of a Minsk-Moscow disinformation campaign designed to dissuade pro-EU ideology, grow war support, and increase patriotic support for pro-Russian policies.

It should be noted that in 2023, Belarusian and Polish paramilitary forces participated in a raid on the Belgorod oblast in Russia. The attack, which originated from Ukraine, was perpetrated by forces of Ukrainian, Belarusian, and Polish origin. The groups:

• Freedom of Russia Legion (FRL)

• Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC)

• Polish Volunteer Corps

• Belarusian Terror Battalion

It is possible that this incursions — and these groups — could be referenced in similar information campaigns, especially if Minsk or Moscow attempts to justify conventional or hybrid operations against NATO.

Sources: The Baltic Times

End Brief

That concludes this edition of The Intel Brief.

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Nick