Good morning,

Welcome back to another Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s get you up to speed on things you might have missed this weekend.

Reporting Period: 2-6 January 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

NATO Stands-Up Command To Oversee Ukraine Aid As Republican Congress, Trump Prepare To Lead

Summary
On 1 January 2025, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte announced that the headquarters for the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU) was operational. Observers view the establishment of NSATU as a precaution against Donald Trump who NATO fears will cut aid to Ukraine. On 3 January, the 119th Congress began, officially giving Republicans legislative control.

Findings

• NSATU: More than 700 NATO personnel will run the NSATU mission. Its headquarters are in Wiesbaden, Germany. NSATU personnel will also work out of facilities in Belgium, Poland, and Romania. NSATU’s roles:

  • Oversee training of Ukrainian armed forces inside allied countries

  • Provide support for the long-term development of Ukraine’s military

  • Support the planning, coordination, transfer and repair of equipment and material to Ukraine

• 119th Congress: The Congress convened for a new session on Friday, but before new members were sworn in they re-elected Mike Johnson as the Speaker of the House. Republicans have a slim 219-215 majority in the House and a 53-47 majority in the Senate. The Republican Congress is expected to back Trump’s policies, especially as they relate to Ukraine. Trump wants to draw down aid — which has been expensive and frequent under Biden — in addition to negotiating a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow.

Why This Matters
The establishment of the NSATU by NATO may not seem connected to the political situation in the US, but it is deeply reflective of Europe’s persistent weariness regarding Trump’s incoming administration.

Trump wants to cut aid to Ukraine and end the war. But, he has also threatened to cut funding to NATO, lobby for increasing member defense spending (5% from current 2%), and leave the alliance altogether if his demands cannot be met.

In this regard, the establishment of the NSATU is a pat-on-the-back decision — the US still determines whether or not it will send aid to Ukraine, and is under no NATO obligation to continue Biden’s policies. Additionally, even if Trump decides to provide Kyiv aid, he could remind NATO who is boss by circumventing the alliance (and the informal Ramstein group that has previously coordinated aid) by working bilaterally with Zelenskyy in Ukraine.

Mark Rutte previously warned Trump that peace terms favoring Russia would undermine NATO security and pose long-term threats to the alliance; a stance that makes the establishment of the US-isolating NSATU even more confusing.

Sources: MSN, NBC News, Tagtik, CNN, SHAPE (NATO)

Major Arms Deals As Biden Prepares To Leave Office

Summary
From 3-4 January 2025, various arms deals were announced to US allies. The deals come as President Biden prepares to leave office for President-elect Trump. Biden is pushing aid to US allies due to concerns that Trump will restrict American support abroad.

Findings

• Raytheon: On 3 January, Raytheon announced it was awarded a $946 million contract to provide Romania with Patriot air defense radars, control stations, and missiles.

• Japan: On 4 January, the US State Department approved the sale of 1,200 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAMs) to Japan for nearly $3.6 billion. Japan will reportedly begin producing AMRAAMs locally as a part of the deal.

• Ukraine: According to the Ukraine Oversight committee, Congress has provided over $174 billion to Ukraine through five appropriation acts from FY2022 through FY2024. On 3 January, it was reported that Biden will announce a new military aid package for Ukraine through the Ramstein group on 9 January.

• Israel: On 4 January, The Time of Israel reported that the Biden administration is prepping an $8 billion arms package for Israel. The package reportedly includes air-to-air missiles, artillery shells, and air-to-ground munitions. The deal will require congressional approval. Since the 7 October 2022 attack, the US has sent Israel more than $18 billion in military aid.

Why This Matters
Large, continued aid packages abroad by the Biden administration could set Trump up for tarnished relations with key allies if he chooses to restrict US contributions.

Note that Biden also gave a lot of aid — particularly to Ukraine — through the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA); a tool to provide military aid under the Foreign Assistance Act (FAA). Under this law, the Secretary of State needs to merely notify Congress of drawdowns (i.e. aid packages) before the President can sign-off on them. The military aid comes directly from US military stockpiles.

Sources: RTX, Nikkei Asia, Liga, The Times of Israel, Ukraine Oversight, Department of State

United Kingdom To Rehearse Deployment of New NATO Force To Eastern Europe

Summary
On 3 January, the UK Ministry of Defence announced that UK forces will spearhead the inaugural exercise for the Allied Reaction Force (ARF). The exercise is Steadfast Dart 25 and tests ARF’s ability to mobilize and reinforce NATO’s eastern flanks.

Findings

• Details: The UK will deploy 2,600 personnel and 730 vehicles to Bulgaria and Romania. According to SHAPE (NATO’s military headquarters), the exercise will focus on “the planning and execution of pre-crisis Multi-domain activity” aimed at reinforcing Eastern NATO allies.

• Timeframe: Steadfast Dart 25 will be conducted from 13 January to 26 February. Following its conclusion, NATO forces will participate in Dacia 2025, a Romanian Employment exercise.

• ARF: The Allied Reaction Force was stood-up on 1 July 2024 as a part of the new NATO Force Model. It replaced the NATO Response Force. It is currently under the leadership of the NATO Rapid Deployable Corps Italy (NRDC-ITA).

Why This Matters
The ARF was created to better coordinate ground, air, naval, and cyber assets for modern conflict. Sensing growing tensions in Eastern Europe, the ARF’s creation was further pressured by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The UK government pointed out that in addition to being a (potentially) powerful coordination mechanism for NATO militaries, the force is also an excellent deterrent against Russia due to its ability to rapidly deploy large, cohesive fighting forces.

Sources: UK Ministry of Defence, NATO, SHAPE (NATO)

Iran Deploys 110,00 IRGC Troops For Drills In Western Iran

Summary
On 4 January, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched exercise Great Prophet 19 in the western Kermanshah province. The exercises reportedly seek to enhance Iran’s capability of deploying large-scale ground forces, equipment, and logistics.

Findings

• Size: The Mehr News Agency reported that 110,000 IRGC personnel are taking part in the exercise.

• Purpose: IRGC Brigadier General Hassanzadeh stated the exercise is intended to show Iran’s continued support for the “Resistance Front” (i.e. Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad). Another official stated it is simply to ensure combat readiness.

Why This Matters
While the exercise is a typical show-of-force with some yields in developing operational proficiency, its size and location are more significant.

IRGC General Azimi alluded to this, stating “its proximity to the western border, where hostile groups have previously attempted to pose security threats” is critical to the operation’s “Why?”

Sources:
Please note that these sources also edit the reports after publishing. These are unsecured news sources so I will not link them:

• “Massive IRGC military drill underway in western Iran” by IRNA English

• “110,000 IRGC forces to hold Quds pilgrims exercise” by Mehr News Agency

• “Fate of ‘Resistance Front’ Tied to Islamic Republic’s Fate: Hezbollah Chief” by Iran International

End Brief

That concludes this Monday morning brief.

If you have any comments, questions, or concerns, email me directly any time: [email protected]

Thanks for reading,

Nick