Monday Morning Brief (20-23 June 2024)

Good morning, and welcome to the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief.

This one should take about 6 minutes to read.

Reporting Period: 20-23 June

Bottom-Line Up Front:

• Mark Rutte, the outgoing Dutch Prime Minister, will become NATO’s next Secretary General.

• Putin might supply weapons to North Korea in support of their new defensive pact.

• A U.S. delegation visited India to meet with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. They discussed military alignment against China.

• The USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group arrived in South Korea for joint drills with Japan and South Korea.

• Marine Corps Commandant General Eric Smith discussed the success and growth of the Marine Littoral Regiments.

• Voting on the approval of the Department of Defense budget for FY25 will wait until after July 4.

Dutch PM To Be Next NATO Secretary General
20 June 2024

Mark Rutte, the outgoing Dutch Prime Minister, will succeed Jens Stoltenberg as NATO’s next Secretary General by October 2, 2024. Rutte secured the victory on 20 June after Romania’s president withdrew from the race. Stoltenberg's tenure, extended four times mostly due to the war in Ukraine, precedes Rutte's upcoming appointment.

Why This Matters

NATO’s Secretary General is responsible for the organization of NATO members, and shaping the development of the alliance through the North Atlantic Council (this is political decision-making body of NATO). This role is not a military role and strategic decisions are determined by member states.

Rutte’s appointment is just before U.S. presidential elections.

Want To Read More?

• Read about the position of Secretary General

• Politico’s coverage

Russia’s Relationship With North Korea Is Growing
20 June 2024

On June 20, Vladimir Putin announced that Russia is considering supplying weapons to North Korea. Putin's reasoning is that the West is supplying advanced weaponry to Ukraine and is permitting them to strike targets inside Russia. His statement was as follows:

On 19 June, Putin signed a mutual defense treaty with Kim Jong Un during his visit to Pyongyang (his first visit there in 24 years).

Why This Matters

Putin’s new treaty is historic, and resembles Cold War geopolitics. North Korea’s last mutual defense agreement was with the Soviet Union. After the USSR collapsed, Russia entered a lesser pact with North Korea in 2000.

Russia has now tied itself to affairs in the Pacific, despite the fact it is struggling in Ukraine. South Korea condemned the deal and is preparing to send weapons to Ukraine.

Comment: Putin’s statement also implies Russia can, and will, supply weapons to anyone he chooses.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Reuters

• Coverage by NPR

U.S. Delegation Met With Indian Prime Minister Modi To Discuss China
20 June 2024

On 20 June, an American delegation met with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss strengthening the American-Indian alliance. Michael McCaul, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee, emphasized India’s role in deterring China. McCaul expressed interest in India being a partner to lead the way in next generation weapons and technology.

Comment: During the visit to India, the delegation also met with the Dalai Lama (Tibet’s spiritual leader and head of Tibetan Buddhism). Tibet was annexed by Communist China in 1950 and has suffered cultural erasure and oppression despite the Seven Point Agreement of 1951.

Why This Matters

India is a member of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a strategic dialogue between the United States, India, Japan, and Australia. The dialogue was ended in 2008 due to Australia’s withdrawal, but was initiated again by President Donald Trump following the 2017 ASEAN summit.

China has consistently viewed “the Quad” as a NATO-like pact being brought to the Pacific. India’s alignment against China is crucial to deterring China, or winning in the Indo-Pacific in the event of conflict.

Want To Read More?

• Release by Foreign Affairs Committee

• Visit with Dalai Lama by NYT

Quick Look: U.S. Aircraft Carrier Arrives In South Korea For Drills

On 22 June, the USS Theodore Roosevelt strike group arrived in South Korea to partake in exercises with Japan and South Korea. The event follows Vladimir Putin’s visit to North Korea, and their signing of a new defensive pact.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by PBS

Marine Corps Bolstering Presence In Asia With The Marine Littoral Regiment
22 June 2024

On 21 June, Marine Corps Commandant General Eric Smith was interviewed by Nikkei, a Japanese news agency. General Smith spoke about the successes of the Marine Littoral Regiment (MLR) that was established on Okinawa in November 2023. Gen. Smith highlighted the MLR’s role in quickly deploying to defend Japan’s islands, the Philippines, and South Korea.

Okinawa and Hawaii both have their own MLR. Smith announced that another MLR will be stood up in Guam in the next few years.

Why This Matters

The MLR is the Marine Corps’ current bid for rapidly countering PLA threats in the event of conflict in the Indo-Pacific region. Three conflicts currently worry U.S. decisionmakers the most:

• Taiwan scenario

• Spratly Islands scenario

• North Korea scenario

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Nikkei

• The MLR in concept

Quick Look: $923 Billion Defense Bill To Sit Until After July 4

The bill authorizing the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for FY25 will wait for voting until after the Senate’s July 4 recess. The NDAA is a law that specifies the Department of Defense’s budget and fiscal policies, as well as guidance for military and strategic investiture.

End Brief

Thanks for checking out another edition of The Intel Brief. See you again on Monday morning at 0630! Have a great week.

P.S. I would like feedback on how to improve the newsletter. Share your thoughts below: