Monday Morning Brief (21-24 November 2024)

Biden pushes more aid for Ukraine, Trump and Mark Rutte met in Florida, and Russia fired a new ICBM at Ukraine. Plus more...

Author

Nick
November 25, 2024

Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals.

Good morning,

This is your Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief.

Estimated Read Time: 5 minutes

Reporting Period: 21-24 November 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

1. President Biden announced is expanding aid to Ukraine. He is also attempting to forgive billions in loans. Biden is looking to use all of the Presidential Drawdown Authority materiel we have available before leaving office.

2. NATO’s Secretary General met with Trump. Rutte and Trump met in Florida to discuss NATO’s concerns regarding the global security environment. It is likely that Trump’s plan for Ukraine was the primary topic, second to China and Taiwan.

3. Belarusian dictator Lukashenko threatened to shut down the internet before elections. Lukashenko is looking to avoid nationwide riots as in August 2020. Despite partaking in elections, Lukashenko altered the Belarusian constitution so that he can serve for life.

4. Russia fired a new ICBM at Ukraine. Putin said the missile, which cannot be countered, will continue to be manufactured and will be deployed in combat roles. The ICBM is nuclear capable.

5. Hezbollah conducted a large-scale strike on Israel. More than 250 projectiles were fired from sites inside Lebanon. The IDF said it intercepted most of the projectiles. The strikes have likely deteriorated any progress made on ongoing peace negotiations.

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Biden Expands Aid To Ukraine, Offers Loan Forgiveness

The Department of Defense announced that President Biden approved his seventieth package of equipment from US inventories to Ukraine. The Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package is valued at $275 million. It includes the following:

  • HIMARS rockets

  • 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition

  • 60mm and 81mm mortar ammunition

  • Small UAS platforms (drones)

  • TOW anti-tank missiles

  • Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems

  • Small arms ammunition

Additionally, President Biden announced that he would forgive $4.7 billion of a $9.4 billion loan to Ukraine. The loan is a part of an April 2024 bill totaling $61 billion and could be fully forgiven after January 2026.

On 20 November, Representative Massie (R-KY) introduced a bill to overturn Biden’s decision, calling it an “America Last” policy decision. Congress is expected to vote on the bill in an upcoming session.

Why This Matters

Biden’s decision to push as much aid to Ukraine before President-elect Donald Trump takes office coincides with his decision to allow Kyiv to conduct long-range strikes with US systems into Russia.

Increased aid and long-range strike approval are issues Putin views as escalatory. Biden’s decision to double-down on support for Ukraine is based on concerns that Trump could limit American support when he takes office.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated last week that Ukraine would likely lose the war if Washington pulled funding and military aid. Ukraine is currently struggling to defend its eastern territories. Russia is trying to definitively seize eastern Ukrainian oblasts, like Donetsk and Luhansk, while it attempts to recapture its own Kursk oblast.

Control of territory will very likely influence whether or not a peace deal can be negotiated. As both sides look to negotiate from a position of strength, Ukraine is running out of manpower and materiel, a factor that the Trump administration is likely keenly aware of.

This reporting coincides with the US Indo-Pacific commander’s remarks that aid to Ukraine is significantly dwindling the US military’s supply of weapons systems, parts, and ammunition. The US is increasingly concerned about conflicts in the Middle East and Indo-Pacific.

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NATO Secretary General Meets With Trump

On 22 November, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte met with President-elect Donald Trump at his residence in Florida.

The pair discussed NATO capabilities as they relate to the global security environment. It is likely that they discussed Trump’s plans for Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East, and growing concerns regarding China and Taiwan.

Why This Matters

Trump shared tough but warm relations with Rutte when he was the Dutch Prime Minister. Rutte, like Trump, supports higher defense spending for NATO member states. Rutte also supports a continued leading role for the US in NATO whereas some European leaders want to move away from dependence on Washington.

Despite NATO’s security obligations becoming more globalized, Rutte’s visit signals concern regarding the war in Ukraine. President Biden has committed to providing Ukraine as much aid as possible before his term ends in January. Rutte’s visit suggests that despite continued aid, Ukraine may struggle to continue fighting the war through 2025.

Ukraine’s manpower and supply of materiel continues to deplete. A November 2023 report by the European Commission suggested that upwards of 850,000 fighting age males fled Ukraine to avoid service. That number has likely increased as battlefield casualties continue to mount. Additionally, Russian offensives have nearly solidified Moscow’s hold on eastern separatist regions (i.e. Donetsk, Luhansk).

Western leaders grow increasingly concerned of direct conflict with Russia. Just this month:

  • Northern European nations began issuing conflict and crises preparedness pamphlets

  • A British MP said the UK could “fight tonight” if Russia invaded eastern Europe

  • German documents revealed an 800,000 troop mobilization plan

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Belarus Threatens To Shutdown Internet Before Elections, Fearing Riots

On 22 November, Russia’s TASS news agency reported that Belarusian President Lukashenko is considering shutting down the country’s internet access if the risk of riots and protests coincide with the January 2025 elections. Lukashenko cited the August 2020 protests as justification.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who has ruled since 1994, is Putin’s closest ally in Europe.

Background: In May 2020, a series of political demonstrations against the Lukashenko regime began. In August 2020, the protests expanded when Lukashenko was declared winner, securing a sixth term through electoral fraud and a private inauguration ceremony. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Lukashenko’s opponent, eventually fled the country and leads an exile government in Poland and Lithuania. Lukashenko responded with the deployment of enforcers who beat, arrested, and sometimes killed more than 35,000 protestors. Lukashenko is Putin’s closest ally in Europe and allowed Russian troops to stage in Belarus before invading Ukraine in 2022.

Why This Matters

In 2022, Lukashenko led a referendum which changed the Belarusian constitution. The amendment allows Lukashenko to remain in office until 2035. The Central Election Commission of Belarus has certified Lukashenko’s candidacy while, reportedly, refusing opposition candidates. On 9 November, Viasna Human Rights Center reported that Belarusian police had begun arresting dissidents.

Lukashenko is likely to secure another election victory through electoral fraud and the deployment of enforcers. Lukashenko’s participation in elections, despite faux constitutional protections, indicate he is looking to improve his public image and establish legitimacy to his office.

Propping up the Lukashenko regime is of great interest to Putin. Belarus could provide weapons, munitions, or soldiers to Russia’s war effort should Moscow reject peace negotiations.

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  • Coverage by TASS (this is a Russian state media outlet)

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Russia Fires ICBM At Ukraine, Threatens Further Use

On 21 November, Russia conducted a missile attack against Ukraine which included a nuclear-capable ICBM. Ukraine’s Air Force stated that 6 Kh-101 missiles, which were launched from Astrakhan, were destroyed in-flight.

The missiles targeted a military-industrial site in Dnipro, Ukraine’s fourth largest city.

On 24 November, President Putin stated that Russia will use “Oreshnik” hypersonic ballistic missiles in future “combat” related strikes.

Why This Matters

Putin’s launch of the “Oreshnik,” and his pledge for their further development and use, indicates that Moscow perceives an escalation in the war. The ICBM launch follows President Biden’s approval of long-range strikes for Ukraine with US-made systems, most notably ATACMS.

The US of the “Oreshnik,” which Putin claims flew at Mach 10 and is unable to be countered, is intended to deter western aid to Ukraine and future long-range strikes into Russia.

Given Russia’s ICBM nuclear capability, this is Moscow’s most overt, aggressive, and tangible nuclear “saber rattling” to date.

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Hezbollah Launches Major Attack On Israel, Degrades Negotiation Progress

On 24 November, DW reported that Hezbollah launched more than 250 projectiles into northern and central Israel. The IDF stated that a majority of the rockets and missiles were intercepted.

The attack follows Israel’s recent strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs, some of the largest strikes of the war in Lebanon.

Why This Matters

The strikes on Israel are significant:

  • Israel’s Air Defense. There have been waning concerns that attacks by Iran and its proxies have depleted Israel of its air defense munitions. It is possible that future attacks will not only deplete Israel’s stores, but that they will create a period of vulnerability from follow-on strikes. This is something Iran could capitalize on through deeper coordination with its proxies.

  • Peace Negotiations. US envoys have been traveling between Israel and Lebanon to coordinate negotiations and establish ceasefire criteria. Large-scale attacks by both sides indicate high-level coordination and planning; a sign of conflicting interests regarding ending the conflict.

  • Iranian Support. Hezbollah’s ability to carry out large missile and rocket strikes indicate that Iran is still capable of supplying its proxies with weapons in addition to coordinating large-scale attacks. Sky News reported that Iran had secretly interfered with the ongoing peace negotiations.

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End Brief

That concludes this brief. Be sure to send this publication to someone you think would enjoy it.

Have a nice week ahead.

Nick