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Monday Morning Brief (22-25 August)
Skirmish between Israel and Hezbollah, Rising African juntas, and diplomacy with China. Plus more...
Nick
August 26, 2024
Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals
Good morning,
There are some very interesting updates here. It never ceases to amaze me how seemingly small events can have such wide-sweeping influence.
It is the start of a new week, and this is your Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief.
Reporting Period: 22-25 August
Bottom Line Up Front:
1. A New York Times report claims President Biden revised the Nuclear Employment Guidance to address a growing alliance between China, Russia, and North Korea. China’s state-run media responded to the report.
2. Three African military juntas wrote to the UN Security Council. They asked the council to hold Ukraine accountable for their involvement in an ambush by rebels and jihadists.
3. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan will travel to China this week. He is going to discuss various concerns, such as China’s relationship with Russia and Taiwan, and the US fentanyl crisis.
4. Israel and Hezbollah forces engaged each other in various cross-border attacks. Hezbollah called the strikes retaliation. They occurred during ongoing ceasefire talks in Egypt.
5. The Navy is sidelining 17 ships due to manpower shortages. They will go into a period of extended maintenance.
Missed the Sunday SITREP? Check it out here.
President Biden Reportedly Revised The Nuclear Defense Strategy
In March 2024, President Biden reportedly updated America’s nuclear defense strategy to address the growing alliance of China, Russia, and North Korea. The New York Times report suggests the US previously viewed these adversaries as disjointed, but President Biden revised the strategy due to growing strategic coordination between the three powers.
The document, known as the Nuclear Employment Guidance, exists only in paper copies and is highly restricted.
One concern that influenced the revision is China’s growing nuclear arsenal which has doubled since 2020. By 2035, China could have more than 1,500 nuclear devices, rivaling the United States and Russia.
On 22 August, China’ state-run media the Global Times addressed the NYT report. China says the US has over 5,000 nuclear warheads and claimed their own development serves as an American alibi to justify military expansionism.
The Global Times report reiterated the party-line rhetoric that China’s nuclear arsenal is strictly for self-defense and that the CCP maintain a “no first use” policy.
Why This Matters
Growing strategic coordination by America’s adversaries is a perpetual concern as it complicates our strategy across regions. In a more tense geopolitical environment, a nuclear power could threaten the use of its own arsenal to back the strategy of an ally, shaking the Western “rules based” international norms.
Though unlikely, an example might be China backing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by threatening nuclear intervention against nations who aid Ukraine.
The worst-case scenario is a coordinated nuclear attack.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by The Telegraph
Original coverage by NYT
The propaganda piece by Global Times
African Military Juntas Spurn Ukraine For Wagner Group Ambush
Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have co-authored a letter to the United Nations Security Council to denounce Ukraine’s apparent support for rebels and terrorists in Mali’s Sahel region. The letter demands the council take responsibility and enact measures to prevent similar actions in the future.
In late July, a group of Russian Wagner Group mercenaries and Malian soldiers were ambushed in the Sahel. More than 50 Malian soldiers and 80 Wagner members were killed in ambushes by ethnic Tuareg rebels and Islamic jihadists.
Following the ambush a Ukrainian intelligence spokesperson, Andriy Yusov, issued a cryptic statement:
The rebels received all the necessary information they needed, and not just the information, which allowed (them) to conduct a successful military operation against Russian perpetrators of war crimes. We certainly won't go into details now - you will see more of this in the future…
Mali and Niger cut ties with Ukraine in early August and denounced the act as supporting terrorism. Ukraine and the Tuareg rebels deny Ukraine’s involvement.
Why This Matters
Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have been under Russia’s influence for years. The Wagner Group had been operating in these regions to conduct counter-terrorism operations, fight rebels, and prop up the now-established military juntas.
In July, US Air Force Base 101 closed in Niger, a major shift relations.
Do you think Russia would take foreign fighters from Africa? |
Want To Read More?
National Security Adviser To Visit China This Week
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan travels to China this week to visit with CCP diplomat Wang Yi. Sullivan and Wi will meet from 27 to 29 August.
Sullivan and Yi are expected to discuss the following:
China’s tense Cross-Strait relationship with Taiwan
China’s role in the fentanyl crisis
China’s military and material aid to Russia
Chinese relations with North Korea and Myanmar
The last time the pair met was in January in Bangkok, Thailand. Sullivan will be the first National Security Adviser to visit China since 2016.
Why This Matters
China and the US have had troubled relations under the Biden administration. It is possible Sullivan and Yi will organize a final meeting between Xi Jinping and President Biden.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by Reuters
Hezbollah And Israel Trade Fire In Large-Scale Attacks
On 25 August, Hezbollah terrorists and Israeli forces exchanged fire in cross-border attacks. The largest engagement in months, it ended suddenly and before any larger attacks could be mounted.
As the attacks raged, diplomats met in Egypt to discuss a lasting ceasefire. Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets while Israel’s says they conducted “dozens” of pre-emptive raids to avert a larger attack.
Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said the attacks were vengeance for the assassination of their top military commander, but that they ended the attacks to give the ceasefire discussions a fair chance.
Why This Matters
The attacks risk jeopardizing the ongoing ceasefire discussions. Additionally, Hezbollah’s attack may embolden Hamas and Houthi fighters to strike Israel. Iran, who supplies and coordinates with each terrorist group, has vowed to strike Israel but will bide its time.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by AP News
US Navy Sidelining Ships, Dispersing Crews To New Vessels
On 24 August, it was reported that the US Navy will sideline 17 vessels and assign their crews to other vessels. The Navy made the decision primarily due to Merchant Marine manpower shortages.
The 17 vessels will go into an “extended maintenance” period while the Navy looks to address recruiting and manpower concerns.
Why This Matters
The Navy, like the Air Force and Army, has struggled to meet recruiting numbers. The same goes for the Merchant Marine, an integral support arm of the Navy.
Navy officials are also worried about the service life of some of the ships, and whether or not they can remain committed to a ship retirement plan that was devised in 2022.
This news also comes as the Navy is at a 25 year-low for shipbuilding due to a lack of skilled labor.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by New York Post
End Brief
That concludes this Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief.
Thanks for sticking around. Remember, the next brief is coming this Thursday @ 0630 ET.
See you then,
Nick