Good morning,

This is your Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s look at some important updates from this past weekend.

Reporting Period: 23-27 January 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Trump Begins Refining Iran Policy, Tehran Tries Appealing To Diplomacy

Summary
In his first week in office, President Trump has begun to clarify his policy on Iran and the broader Middle East. His current focus is advancing the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, but there is some urgency is developing a solid Iran policy. Trump is likely to push for a new nuclear deal through diplomacy, but could quickly resort to military strikes if no substantive progress — backed by verifiable guarantees — is made.

Findings

• IAEA Report: During the WEF’s Davos Summit on 22 January, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Director-General stated Iran is “pressing the gas pedal” on uranium enrichment, a critical step in the construction of nuclear weapons. The IAEA states Tehran may be close to 90% uranium enrichment which is considered weapons grade.

• Iranian Nuclear Program: Despite an IAEA report claiming Iran is ramping up nuclear production, Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei has reportedly paused the development of nuclear weapons. A spokesperson said Khamenei is pausing nuclear development due to religious doctrine banning the use of “unconventional weapons, even against enemy forces.”

• Steven Witkoff: Witkoff is President Trump’s Middle East advisor and is currently slated to enter Gaza with an inspection team to ensure the Israel-Hamas ceasefire is being upheld. Witkoff supports advancing “Phase Two” negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Following Trump’s firing of his Iran Envoy, Brian Hook, Trump is likely to offer Witkoff the role. Axios reports that Witkoff could be Trump’s bid to reach a new nuclear deal with Iran before considering military strikes.

• Trump’s Statement: On 23 January, Trump stated to reporters in the Oval Office that “It would really be nice” if the U.S. did not have to resort to military strikes on Iran. That evening, President Trump elaborated in an interview with Sean Hannity:

Why This Matters
The situation in Iran and Israel is one of Trump’s top-three most critical foreign concerns. The nuclearization of Iran would be a historic failure for the global community and would, as Trump alluded to, set a new precedent for acquiring nuclear weapons (i.e. anyone could pursue it).

The engrained hatred for Israel and the West inside the Khamenei regime also indicate Iran cannot be trusted with nuclear weapons.

It is unlikely that Iran would adhere to a diplomatic solution in the long-term. Trump would likely be able to ensure compliance, but depending on future administrations, Iran could subvert or pull out from a new treaty.

Additionally, Trump is likely to give Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s opinions serious consideration. In Canada and the EU, there is also growing concern that the Iran Nuclear Deal is broken, and that military strikes on Iranian facilities are increasingly more reasonable.

Sources: Reuters, Axios, Fox News, The Times of Israel

Knife Attack By Migrant Pressures Calls For Reform In Germany, Elections Loom

Summary
On 22 January, an Afghan asylum seeker stabbed two to death in a Bavarian park. The incident has led to protests and broad calls for migration reform ahead of Germany’s February snap elections. The incident highlights the complexity — and hypocrisy — of some popular German political rhetoric as it relates to German officials’ failure to resolve key issues.

Findings

• Aschaffenburg Attack: On 22 January, a 28-year-old Afghan man attacked a group of kindergarten children in a park in Aschaffenburg, killing a 2-year-old and a 41-year-old who tried to intervene. Three others were wounded. The perpetrator was placed in a psychiatric hospital.

• Political Response: German citizens and politicians have voiced support for migration reform. Friedrich Merz — the leader of the center-right CDU party and favorite to be the next Chancellor — stated he would implement permanent border controls at all points of entry. He also stated he would revise the asylum process and turn away all “illegal migrants” at the border.

• Rhetoric Hypocrisy: Merz’s statements reflect a growing sentiment in Germany, but some have called out the hypocrisy as snap elections approach. Germany’s Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) party have previously used anti-immigration rhetoric to boost support in Germanys eastern regions, a position that has led to their designation as “far-right extremist” and surveillance by the domestic intelligence service (BfV).
  Additionally, Germany previously instituted border checks following a knife attack in late 2024 which drew criticism for being in violation of the EU’s Schengen agreement.

• Snap Elections: The Scholz government failed a vote of no confidence just before the new year which sparked snap elections. Now, Germany’s political parties are scrambling to appeal to voters, pick up seats in parliament, and find themselves in a majority coalition to form a government. Interestingly, the “far-right” ideas that have led to the AfD’s condemnation are becoming more popular and mainstream in the moderate parties.
  On 25 January, thousands of Germans gathered in Berlin to protest the AfD ahead of elections. Elon Musk has previously endorsed the AfD and showed up to Alice Weidel’s rally in the city of Halle.

Why This Matters
First and foremost, Germany found itself in the position of snap-elections due to electing a government that was prone to infighting. The Scholz government failed to establish substantive policies on key German issues such as unemployment, housing, inflation, immigration, security, and energy.

Meanwhile, Germany’s legacy parties have further undermined their credibility by marginalizing certain political actors, notably the AfD, through exclusionary practices. By collectively agreeing to bar the AfD from coalition talks, subjecting it to federal surveillance, and discrediting it in the media, these parties appear to be sidestepping genuine engagement with the root causes of rising radicalism. For Germany to address this trend, it must urgently focus on resolving its pressing domestic issues while ensuring equal treatment under the law and across federal institutions.

Merz’s recent remarks add complexity to the situation, especially as they garnered an endorsement from the AfD. Although unlikely, a CDU/CSU coalition with the AfD cannot be entirely ruled out as a path to securing a parliamentary majority. However, such a move would come at a steep cost: violating the “Brandmauer” (lit. “Firewall”) against the AfD would likely discredit the CDU/CSU and damage their long-term political standing, even if it temporarily returns them to power.

This is also complicated by the fact that President Trump would likely favor a CDU/CSU government and Chancellor in Germany, which means other parties may find it more attractive to work with Germany’s center-right parties.

Sources: BBC, Reuters, YouTube, DW, POLITICO, AP News

Senate Confirms Hegseth As Secretary Of Defense

Summary
On 25 January, Pete Hegseth was sworn in as Secretary of Defense. Hegseth, labelled as one of Trump’s most controversial picks, is the second candidate to get Senate approval. Hegseth brings his Army infantry officer and Fox News host experience to the Pentagon.

Findings

• Senate Vote: Hegseth narrowly passed confirmation in the Senate with 51 votes in support to 50 votes against. Three Republicans diverged from the party-line and voted against Hegseth’s appointment. Vice President Vance, supporting Hegseth, was the deciding vote.

• Allegations: During the vetting process, Hegseth faced allegations of severe alcohol and domestic abuse in addition to financial mismanagement. While Hegseth has combat experience from Iraq and Afghanistan — in addition to two bronze stars — he was criticized for having experience not commensurate to running the Pentagon.

• Agenda: In an initial release, Hegseth has clarified his broad agenda which will be focused on “lethality, meritocracy, accountability, standards, and readiness.” Hegseth will pursue President Trump’s “Peace Through Strength” concept in three ways:

  • Restoring the warrior ethos by reaffirming high-standards, unity, and camaraderie.

  • Rebuilding the military by rebuilding the defense industrial base, reforming acquisitions, passing audits, and fielding new technologies and capabilities.

  • Reestablish deterrence by enhancing partnerships against our adversaries, particularly China.

Why This Matters
I am unsure of what to make of Hegseth’s appointment. Some of the accusations against him (regarding his personal character and previous habits) are concerning.

I appreciate his military service and think it should be a bare minimum for appointment to SECDEF. Having not reached the senior field grade or general ranks are reasonable grounds to sow doubts about whether his experience is commensurate with what is required to run the Pentagon.

However, there is an argument to be made that 30+ years of appointments of “experts” and the “exceedingly qualified” has led to myriad crises, disasters, and critical policy failures.

Based solely on his initial release (linked below), I like how Hegseth has organized the DOD’s priorities, and I am rooting for the “Peace Through Strength” concept.

Sources: CBS News, CNN, NPR, U.S. Department of Defense

Putin Wants To Meet With Trump, Discuss Energy And Ukraine

Summary
On 24 January, Russian President Putin stated he would like to meet with Trump to discuss the war in Ukraine and energy pricing. Putin also made substaintial claims, suggesting the war in Ukraine might not have happened if Trump were in office in 2020.

Findings

• Russian Flattery: Putin stated he and Trump have a lot to discuss. Putin previously said he would like to establish normal relations with the U.S.
  Putin also stated that Trump was the real winner in 2020 and that if he were in office, Russia might have not invaded Ukraine. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated that these remarks are intended to manipulate Trump as the possibility of peace negotiations loom.

• Demands for Kyiv: Putin stated negotiations cannot begin until Zelenskyy lifts a 2022 decree barring him from negotiating with Russian officials. Putin stated Western nations pushing aid to Ukraine could — and should — force Zelenskyy to abandon the decree. The decree was deemed illegal by the majority of UN member states.

Why This Matters
Putin’s statements indicate peace negotiations could soon begin. However, Putin is unlikely to look at any negotiations as legitimate until Ukraine abandons its decree barring negotiations with Putin.

If this happens, it is possible that convening parties could agree to terms in principle, only to see them rejected by Ukraine’s sudden entry into negotiations. This could undermine negotiations altogether.

Putin has also done something clever; by wanting to discuss normalizing relations and working out energy deals, he introduces secondary or tertiary policy concerns into negotiations. This has the potential to make Russian interests more agreeable if Western parties find that there is something to gain (i.e. cheap energy delivered quickly and a cessation to sabotage activities).

Sources: Reuters, CNN, AP News

Lukashenko Secures Re-election In Belarus

Summary
On 26 January, President Lukashenko won elections in Belarus. Lukashenko is a strong ally to Putin and has ruled Belarus for more than 30 years across 7 terms.

Findings

• Elections: Lukashenko won presidential elections with 87.6% of votes. Four other candidates appeared on ballots, but are reportedly allies of the longtime dictator.

• Background: In 2020, fraudulent elections saw Lukashenko’s victory met by mass protests. Lukashenko was almost ousted until the deployment of Belarusian and Russian law enforcement personnel carried out arrests, beatings, and kidnappings. Sviatlana Tikhanovskaya, an opposition candidate, currently runs a Belarusian movement in exile in Poland.

• Lukashenko’s Statements: Following his victory, Lukashenko sat down to address state media:

  • Nuclear Umbrella: Lukashenko said Russian Oreshnik missiles will soon be deployed to Belarus. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Lukashenko allowed Russian troops to stage in Belarus — along the Ukrainian border — before carrying out operations on Kyiv.

  • Poland: Lukashenko suggested that Poland orchestrated the 2020 protests and incited a coup attempt.

  • China: Lukashenko voiced his support for China and Xi Jinping, and said the future of “multipolarity” depends on Beijing. Belarus and China, under Putin’s endorsement, could expand strategic cooperation this year.

  • Russia: Lukashenko reaffirmed that Belarus will remain close to Moscow and its interests. He said Belarus has not discussed integration as one nation with Russia.

When questioned on the fairness of elections, citing that his opposition were either in prison or exile, Lukashenko had this to say:

Why This Matters
Lukashenko’s continued tenure ensures limited civil liberties, economic opportunity, and diplomatic influence for Belarus. From a security perspective, Belarus remains a pro-Russian outlier.

While Putin may approach the U.S., NATO, and Ukraine with a reformed and amicable plea for mutual peace, Lukashenko may act as a proxy for Moscow and carry out policies or actions aimed to destabilize the central and eastern European region.

For example, a recent report by POLITICO highlighted Lukashenko’s efforts to use migrants to cause crime in Poland and over-extend security costs and personnel.

Finally, as NATO members deploy personnel eastward and suggest deploying peacekeepers to Ukraine, Lukashenko enhances Russia’s deterrence by proxy. The deployment of Russian troops or ICBMs complicates NATO’s ability to establish a dominant and coercive military presence on Russia’s doorstep.

Sources: POLITICO, BBC, POLITICO

End Brief

That concludes this edition of The Intel Brief.

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Nick