Good morning,

This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Today we are going to cover some updates in Europe, Israel’s strike on Iran, and a White House memo on AI.

Give yourself about 6 minutes.

Reporting Period: 24-27 October

Bottom Line Up Front:

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NATO Lacks Unanimous Support For Ukraine Membership

Seven of NATO’s thirty-two member states currently oppose Ukraine joining NATO. Officials in opposition said there are concerns that Ukrainian membership would bring the alliance to war with Russia. The Kyiv Independent reported that if Kyiv got an invitation, it would ask for membership within months rather than after a few years and a vetting period.

The United States and Germany currently oppose Ukrainian membership due to the security risk, both short and long-term.

POLITICO accused Belgium, Slovenia, and Spain - who oppose Ukrainian membership - of blindly following the US and Germany.

Slovakia and Hungary currently oppose Ukrainian membership due to having pro-Russia political ties in government. In early October, Ukraine said it would cut off the pipeline that is still sending Russian gas to Europe. Both Slovakia and Hungary depend on Russian energy, and said they’d boycott Ukrainian NATO membership if the pipeline closes down.

Background: On 16 October, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy spoke to the EU Parliament and presented his five point victory plan. The plan includes greater defense support, increased deterrence, economic partnership, and post-war security guarantees. Most controversial was Zelenskyy’s claim that Ukraine needs an invitation to NATO.

Why This Matters

An invitation to NATO is the only part of Zelenskyy’s public plan that is specific. Zelenskyy believes that NATO membership would quicken military and economic aid to Ukraine due to less restrictions and more direct paths of cooperation. It also highlights Ukraine’s continued desperation.

Additionally, Ukrainian NATO membership would very likely increase the chances of a NATO-Russia conflict in the short and long-term. NATO’s concerns are that the alliance will not deter Russia from future actions against Ukraine, especially as it grows security partnerships with powers like China, North Korea, and Iran.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by The Kyiv Independent

• Coverage by RBC Ukraine

• Zelenskyy’s victory plan by The Kyiv Independent

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Israeli Retaliation Strikes Destroyed Iranian Missile Facilities

On 25 October, Israel conducted a series of retaliatory strikes against Iran. The strikes were in retaliation for Iran’s previous missile barrage on Israel. Channel 12, an Israeli local news outlet, reported that more than 140 IDF aircraft targeted various Iranian military facilities that construct, store, and export drones and missiles. The IDF said they also targeted multiple air defense and missile launch systems. The IDF did not strike Iranian nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure.

Despite supporting Israel, the US and UK have urged Israel and Iran to abandon the current “strike-counterstrike” cycle in fears of further regional escalation. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Syria, and Iraq all condemned Israel’s strikes.

Despite attacks on Israel in April and early October, Iran’s foreign ministry has characterized the strikes as a violation of international law and vowed to conduct a response.

Why This Matters

Israel’s strikes on Iran are likely to yield some second and third order of effects. From a military perspective, Iran’s weakened air defense infrastructure makes it more prone to future strikes. By striking missile launch facilities, Israel has likely decreased Iran’s ability to launch further missile barrages on Israeli soil.

Additionally, Israel’s targeting of such infrastructure means Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and Russia will likely see a decrease in Iranian supplied drones and missiles. It is uncertain when - and how - Iran will choose to retaliate. An escalatory retaliation, such as further missile barrages on Israel or large-scale, coordinated attacks by Iran’s proxies, could draw the US and allies deeper into the conflict.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by AP News

• Coverage by Fox News

• Live coverage by CNN

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North Korean Soldiers Deployed To Russian Kursk Region, Standing By For Orders

On 25 October, US officials acknowledged that “several thousand” North Korean soldiers were staging in the Ukrainian-held region of Kursk, one of Russia’s western oblasts. Ukrainian and US officials anticipate that the North Koreans will be deployed to the frontlines to support Russia’s counteroffensive in the region.

Ukrainian intelligence has estimated that upwards of 12,000 North Korean troops are now in Russia and preparing for combat operations in Ukraine.

Why This Matters

The presence of North Korean troops in Russia poses serious concerns:

• Frontline Fighting. Fresh, well-trained troops could provide Russia’s counteroffensive in Kursk a much needed breakthrough capability.

• Troop and National Morale. The presence of fresh, foreign troops could inspire Russia’s frontline soldiers and generate public war support. It could also hurt morale by making Russia seem desperate. It is uncertain which is more likely.

• Troop Allocation. Even if North Korea’s soldiers do not engage in direct fighting, their presence in the reserve or along border areas frees Russian reserves to be used elsewhere.

• Geopolitics. The presence of North Korean soldiers is shifting this into a more transparent global conflict. It could lead to the US and NATO lifting restrictions on aid to Ukraine or weapons employment (i.e. long-range strikes into Russia). It could also make Russia more open to receiving foreign troops from elsewhere.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by The New York Times

• Coverage by Newsweek

• Putin will respond to long-range strikes by Reuters

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Russia And Belarus To Conduct Bilateral Military Exercise

On 26 October, Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service stated that Russia and Belarus are planning a bilateral military exercise in Belorussian territory. Ukrainian officials warned that the exercise, “West 2025,” could include maneuvers that push towards Ukraine.

Why This Matters

In 2022, Russia and Belarus carried out the "West 22" exercise against the backdrop of escalating tensions between Moscow and Kyiv. Shortly after the drill ended, Russia initiated its "special military operation" in Ukraine, with troops moving from Belarus to carry out attacks, including on Kyiv.

It remains unclear whether Russia will conduct additional strikes into Ukraine from Belarus after the "West 25" exercises. The Lukashenko regime staunchly supports Russia, allowing Russian drones and aircraft to use its airspace for strikes on Ukraine to evade interception.

With North Korean troops currently donning Russian uniforms and preparing for operations in Russia’s Kursk region, it is also uncertain whether or not Belorussian troops could augment the Russian army in the future.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by RBC Ukraine

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White House Issues Memorandum On Artificial Intelligence Use

On 24 October, the White House issued a memo addressing the appropriate use of artificial intelligence (AI) for defense, intelligence, and national security agencies. It is the most significant expression of US policy on AI use in government to date.

The memo focuses on the development and adoption of “frontier AI models” which are “a general-purpose AI system near the cutting-edge of performance, as measured by widely accepted publicly available benchmarks, or similar assessments of reasoning, science, and overall capabilities.”

The memo seeks to outline how federal agencies can employ AI to improve national security functions. It also highlights the importance of the private sector and government playing a supporting role in the technology’s development.

Finally, the memo outlines how the US intends to outcompete against adversaries in the development of AI while not removing the human element from critical decision-making.

Why This Matters

The memo serves as the most thorough articulation of US strategy on AI, addressing its use, development, and regulation. AI is often compared to transformative technologies like nuclear weapons, the internet, and social media.

Currently, the US is navigating the delicate balance between the risks and rewards associated with AI. There are valid concerns that unchecked growth in this field could result in misuse. Additionally, there is apprehension that adversaries, who may exploit AI for malicious purposes, could surpass the US in technological advancement.

Want To Read More?

• The memo by The White House

• 2023 Executive Order on AI by The White House

• Coverage by CSIS

End Brief

That concludes this morning’s brief. Thanks for reading!

See you on Thursday,

Nick