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Monday Morning Brief (26-29 September)
Israel's air campaign against Lebanon, Putin's nuclear threats, plus more...
Nick
September 30, 2024
Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals
Good morning,
Welcome to another Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Today we are going to cover some events from the Middle East, Russia’s new nuclear threat, and updates from Venezuela and Myanmar.
Give yourself about 5 minutes and 30 seconds for this one.
Reporting Period: 26-29 September
Bottom Line Up Front:
1. Vladimir Putin issued fresh nuclear threats to the West. The Kremlin is updating its nuclear doctrine, and Putin now suggests that long-range strikes into Russia would be met with a response.
2. Israel’s strikes across Lebanon continue. The US issued a joint statement calling for a ceasefire and de-escalation. Hezbollah’s leader was killed in Beirut.
3. The US - and 30 other nations - issued a statement condemning the situation in Venezuela. Venezuela is currently under control of the Maduro regime which seized power after losing national elections this summer.
4. The Houthis launched an attack against US Navy ships. 23 missiles and drones targeted our vessels, but there was no report of casualties or severe damages.
5. After 3 years of civil war, Myanmar’s military junta offered peace terms to the ethnic rebel armies. The rebels rejected the deal, stating the junta needed to adhere to specific conditions that would ultimately establish a democratic Myanmar.
Missed the Pacific Weekly? Read it here.
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Putin Issues New Nuclear Threats To The West
President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia could use nuclear weapons if Ukraine uses conventional missiles being supplied by the West to strike deep inside Russia. This is not the first time Putin or Kremlin officials have touted the use of nuclear weapons to deter support for Ukraine. The statements coincided with news that Russia is modifying its nuclear doctrine.
The US, UK, and NATO are currently debating whether or not to allow Ukraine to conduct long-range strikes inside Russia with Western-supplied missiles. Zelenskyy has been asking for this approval for months.
On 26 September, President Biden announced $8 billion in military aid for Ukraine. The package includes more Patriot systems and missiles, F-16 training, and new Joint Standoff Weapons for aircraft.
Why This Matters
Putin said any such strikes by Ukraine would be considered a “joint attack” against Russia. Putin also extends the use of nuclear weapons in response to attacks against Belarus, Russia’s closest ally in Europe.
This is a clever means of hamstringing adversary strategy. By threatening the use of nuclear weapons, Putin is hoping to restrict Kyiv’s capabilities and thereby bring Russian troops into tactical parity with Ukraine’s on the battlefield.
Comment: Last week, Russia’s Sarmat ICBM detonated before launch at the Plesetsk launch site, indicating that Russia’s missile capabilities may not be up to par.
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US, EU Call For Ceasefire As Israel Bombards Lebanon; Hezbollah Leader Killed
On 26 September, the United States, the European Union, and other countries called for an immediate 21-day ceasefire so that Israel and Hezbollah officials can negotiate and avert a new war.
The joint statement comes after the IDF’s northern command called up reservists and told soldiers to prepare for ground operations in Lebanon. For days, Israel has been conducting airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon due to increased cross-border attacks. More than 600 people have been killed and the UN reported more than 90,000 people displaced.
On 28 September, Israel’s continued strikes across Lebanon resulted in the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah was killed in an airstrike in Beirut. Iranian Revolutionary Guard General Abbas Nilforoushan was also killed in the strike.
Why This Matters
The US and its allies worry that an Israeli invasion of Lebanon will lead to a broader war across the Middle East. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis have increased their attacks against Israel and US military assets in the region since Iran vowed retaliation for attacks against those groups.
In August, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group and a ballistic missile submarine to the region as deterrence.
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US Shares Joint Statement On Venezuela
On 26 September, the US State Department released a joint statement, signed by 31 nations, which condemns the ongoing political situation in Venezuela.
The statement condemns the Maduro regime’s seizure of power following the 28 July elections. Dictator Nicolas Maduro lost the election, but took to Venezuelan media to declare he had won before seizing office. No vetted polling data has yet to be released.
Following the coup, various abuses have been observed including unwarranted arrests, deaths, denial of trials, and intimidation by enforcers. On 3 September, the Maduro regime also issued an arrest warrant for Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, the presidential candidate who won the election.
Why This Matters
There is a possibility that Venezuela could experience political violence as a result from the ongoing coup by the Maduro regime.
In his youth, Nicolas Maduro moved to Cuba and was trained under the Castro regime as a mole of Cuban intelligence. In the 1990s, Maduro joined the MBR-200 movement and was a supporter of Hugo Chavez’s coup attempt.
Under Maduro, Venezuela has experienced crippling hyperinflation and numerous human rights abuses. In 2019, it was reported that his “death squads” had carried out thousands of extrajudicial killings. As of 2023, more than 7.7 million Venezuelans have fled the country.
Want To Read More?
Joint statement by US State Department
Maduro’s executions by The Independent
Refugee numbers by the UN
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Houthis Barrage US Navy Ships With Missiles, Drones
On 27 September, multiple US Navy vessels in the Red Sea were attacked by Houthi terrorists who utilized 23 missiles and suicide drones. The Houthis, who are supplied by Iran, seemingly targeted ships a part of the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group as vessels transited the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. The Pentagon reported to Stars and Stripes that no US personnel were injured and that the navy intercepted the missiles.
The Bab al-Mandeb Strait (pin location) connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and is critical to naval traffic transiting the region. Google Maps
Why This Matters
The Houthi strike coincides with Israeli airstrikes across Lebanon, and the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. The Israeli’s have also asked the US to “deter” Iran from escalating actions in the region.
The Houthis have vowed to continue such attacks until Israeli PM Netanyahu steps down and Israel leaves Gaza.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by Newsweek
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Myanmar Rebels Reject Peace Offer From Junta
After three years of bloody civil war, Myanmar’s military junta has offered the National Unity Government rebel’s a peace offer. The offer is the junta’s first attempt at diplomacy since its 2021 coup.
A recent Chinese-brokered ceasefire broke down. The junta is asking for a diplomatic end to the war and for their opposition to join them in next year’s elections.
The rebels in Myanmar are a shaky alliance of three ethnic armies. They now control nearly half of Myanmar’s territory.
Why This Matters
More than 50,000 people have died in the civil war and more than two million have been displaced. There is no indication that the warring factions will agree to new ceasefire or peace terms, let alone adhere to them.
Chinese troops are currently deployed on the border with Myanmar.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by BBC