Good morning,

This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s look at some major updates from the weekend.

Reporting Period: 26-30 December 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Israel Expands Airstrikes In Yemen Following Houthi Missile Attacks

Summary
Before Christmas, Houthi forces launched several attacks on Israel, including a hypersonic ballistic missile strike on IDF facilities in Tel Aviv, which has prompted Israel’s air force (IAF) to intensify strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. On 26 December, the IAF carried out strikes on Houthi targets, striking two airports and two power stations near Sana’a, the capital. The strikes reflect Israel’s ability to carry out more effective, large-scale operations against Iran-backed proxies following a ceasefire in Lebanon, crippling strikes in Iran, and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria.

Findings

• Persistent Attacks: Israel says it has shot down more than 400 Houthi drones or missiles since October 2023. The Houthis have continued their attacks against ships transiting the Red Sea, a campaign that has demanded US military intervention.

• Israeli Strikes in Yemen: Israeli Air Force Major General Tomer Bar announced that Israeli forces successfully carried out three strikes against the Houthis in Yemen and will continue such operations as needed. These strikes form a key part of Netanyahu’s strategy to limit or neutralize Iranian proxies' ability to launch missiles into Israel — a tactic that prolongs conflict, is low cost, and reduces exposure to IDF countermeasures.

• Strategic Warning: While the airstrikes yield positive battlefield effects for Israel, they are also a valuable contribution to Israel’s soft power on the world stage. Israel stated that it has the “capability to strike very far from Israel’s territory — precisely, powerfully, and repetitively,” an indirect warning to Iran whose defenses remain sundered by Israel’s previous strikes.

Why This Matters
Israel is likely to expand its operations against Iranian proxies, aiming to maintain strategic dominance and demonstrate its military reach. These actions could further destabilize the region and draw in additional international involvement, amplifying both regional tensions and global strategic stakes. Iran, facing increased pressure, may escalate its support for proxies like the Houthis or retaliate directly through asymmetric warfare or cyberattacks, further intensifying the conflict and complicating efforts for regional stability.

Remember — Tehran has vowed to retaliate for the strikes Israel carried out in October 2024. Additionally, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has created a power vacuum that Iran is desperate to deter being filled by pro-Israeli or pro-American factions.

Sources: WSJ, The Times of Israel, NPR, BBC

Putin Suggests Slovakia Moderate Ukraine Peace Negotiations

Summary
During his visit to Moscow, Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico proposed hosting peace negotiations. Putin has said he is open to Slovakia hosting peace talks. Ukraine, who view Fico as a Putin ally, has not confirmed whether they would attend negotiations in Slovakia.

Findings

• Ukraine’s Position: Slovakian-Ukrainian relations remain fractured under Fico’s leadership. Zelenskyy views Fico’s relationship with Putin as coercive. On 28 December, Zelenskyy released a statement on X:

  • Russian Energy. Zelenskyy states purchasing Russian energy is “immoral,” despite the fact that the EU is looking to establish a deal following peace negotiations — however, the EU could secure a deal under the Trump administration.

  • Revenue. Zelensky says that Fico’s policies deprive his nation of income, stating that Ukraine imports $200 million of Slovak electricity — a deal that could be canceled and replaced by other EU partners. Slovakia’s share of Ukraine’s electricity imports is 19%.

  • EU Customs. Zelenskyy says the bilateral diplomacy between Fico and Putin is counter to EU rules and is isolating Slovakia from Europe.

• Slovakia’s Position: Putin claimed he supports negotiations in Slovakia because the country “takes such a neutral position.” Under Fico’s leadership, Slovakia cut off aid to Ukraine as a means of securing an energy transit deal through coercion. Slovakia’s association with NATO and the EU complicated Slovakia’s bilateral relations with Russia, so Fico’s EU/NATO skepticism is reflective of desperation in governance and having unaddressed energy needs.

Why This Matters
Relations between Slovakia and Ukraine are very likely to remain strained, but Fico’s offer and Putin’s interest mark a positive step toward peace.

President-elect Trump, set to take office in January 2025, is very likely to reach out to Fico to schedule negotiations. While Ukraine and the EU have expressed their willingness to proceed, they have emphasized the need for fair conditions that uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. This is a tense negotiating point, as is NATO and EU membership for Ukraine, as Russia is expected to push for Ukraine's partition by leveraging the presence of Russian troops and separatists in Ukraine's eastern oblasts.

The concern with Fico’s Slovakia hosting negotiations is that the moderation may not be truly neutral, instead favoring Russia. EU and NATO officials have also cautioned that Trump may back terms favorable to Russia in an effort to expedite an end to the war.

Such a scenario could derail negotiations, creating a fractured process with three negotiating blocs: Russia and Slovakia, the United States, and a Ukraine-EU collective.

Sources: Reuters, Sky News, Al Jazeera

Pro-EU Protests Continue In Georgia

Summary
In Georgia, protests have been ongoing for over a month. Georgia’s president has partaken in protests against the pro-Russian Georgia Dream party. Protests are likely to continue, especially as EU nations are pressuring the organization to pause Georgia’s accession into the group. Protests could expand and escalate, leading to political violence or suppression, or a public declaration for new elections.

Findings

• Protests: The length of protests in Georgia has exceeded a month. Protests began when the Georgia Dream party won parliamentary elections in October with 54% of votes. In Georgia’s capital of Tbilisi, thousands of protestors — including President Zourabichvili — gathered for a demonstration. They formed a “Chain of Unity” in opposition to ongoing EU and Western backsliding in government.

• EU Accession: On 26 December, Germany pressured the EU to suspend Georgia’s accession into the organization due to the ruling Georgia Dream party being pro-Russian. The German foreign minister said Georgia’s political path is no longer “linked to clear promises of reform.”

Why This Matters
Georgia’s ongoing political crisis could escalate very quickly. Domestically, it is possible that protests could expand, compelling the Georgia Dream party to institute authoritarian crackdowns with law enforcement. Additionally, if protests grow, the government could face enough public pressure — in addition to pressure from the EU — to compel the government to step down and spark snap elections.

If protests continue for the long term, and the government finds itself unable to control them, Georgia could be at risk of Russian intervention by invitation from the Georgia Dream party or by Putin’s order.

A more unlikely scenario, it is not impossible. Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and established two breakaway regions that host Russian military bases — Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Sources: DW, EuroNews, NPR, DPA

NATO Expands Baltic Sea Operations Amid Hybrid Warfare Concerns, Finland Intercepts Russian Vessel

Summary
Last week, one undersea cable and four power lines were damaged in suspected sabotage. Finnish commandos raided a Russian vessel in the area of suspected sabotage. They seize advanced communications surveillance equipment. NATO nations have agreed to expand operations in the Baltic Sea in order to deter further sabotage by Russia and China.

Findings

• Eagle S Tanker: Last week, Finland’s Rannikkojääkärit (Marine Commandos) raided the Eagle S, a Russian tanker believed to be a part of Russia’s shadow fleet. The tanker is suspected of damaging Estlink 2 undersea cables on Christmas. The Eagle S reportedly had advanced communications technology on board and was listening to transmissions affiliated with NATO operations.

• Russian Shadow Fleet: On 28 December, The New York Times reported that Russia operates a “shadow fleet” of tankers that illicitly ship and sell oil abroad, subverting Western sanctions and generating revenue for Moscow’s war efforts.

• NATO: On 27 December, NATO said it would boost its presence in the Baltic Sea after the sabotage of one undersea cable and four power lines. Both Estonia and Sweden have agreed to expand patrols and surveillance in the Baltic. NATO militaries are very likely to expand aircraft and naval vessel patrols in the region this week.

Why This Matters
NATO militaries and EU officials have warned for months that Russia — and to some extent China — was likely to increase hybrid warfare operations inside NATO’s borders.

The recent surge in sabotage (Baltic Sea), political interference (Romania, Georgia), and political coercion (Slovakia, Hungary) underscores a general failure to address these warnings. NATO’s delayed and reactionary decision to boost its Baltic Sea presence reveals gaps in coordination and strategy to counter hybrid warfare.

However, by expanding patrols and surveillance, NATO strengthens its ability to protect critical infrastructure, uphold regional stability, and demonstrate its resolve to defend member states against unconventional threats. This move sends a clear message to adversaries that further actions may incur political, economic, or military consequences, complicating their efforts to conduct covert operations. Continued hybrid warfare schemes may complicate peace negotiations, and lead to more aggressive or hardline stances by European negotiators.

Sources: CNN, BBC, Barron’s, The New York Times, Lloyd’s List

German President Dissolves Parliament, Musk Endorses Candidates

Summary
On 27 December, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolved the Bundestag and set snap elections for 23 February 2025. Elon Musk controversially endorsed the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) party in an opinion editorial in the popular publication Die Welt.

Findings

• Snap Elections: Germany’s parliament — the Bundestag — has only been dissolved three times in the post-WWII era. The snap elections will facilitate a national vote where German citizens elect their local representatives. To form a government, parties need to hold a majority. Due to Germany being a representative democracy, this leads to a coalition-building process. Due to a historically reliable SPD, FDP, and Greens coalition breaking up, it is uncertain what parties will secure the most votes, and what coalition will form.

• Elon Musk: In an opinion editorial for Die Welt, Elon Musk endorsed the AfD ahead of snap elections. Musk, who supports the AfD’s plans for German economic and social reform, believes the AfD is the right party to grow Germany’s economic and military position in Europe while also instituting policies and laws to protect German culture and ethnicity. Following the publication of Musk’s piece, the editor of Die Welt resigned on X.

• AfD: The AfD party is classified by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (the BfV) as a far-right political party despite such ideology, when drawing similarity to Nazism, being outlawed in Germany. Despite mainstream condemnation to exclude the AfD from German politics, the party has grown in popularity through a reformist platform. The AfD wants to address Germany’s economy, immigration issues, migrant crime, security positions, and energy policies. The AfD is generally considered EU-skeptic and NATO reformist. The AfD leadership is open to closer alignment with multipolar powers like Russia and China. AfD is particularly popular in German states that were once a part of East Germany.

• CDU/CSU: The CDU/CSU union is one of Germany’s most popular parties. The union is expected to secure the most votes, but officials have previously stated they will not form a coalition with the AfD or the Greens. This realistically leaves only the SPD and FDP — the union’s rivals — for coalition partnership.

Why This Matters
Public discourse and polling data leading up to the German elections are generating a stir from media, politicians, and analysts alike.

The collapse of Scholz’s “traffic light coalition” complicates a German political landscape that is, historically, predictable. Growing support for extremist parties on the far-right and far-left raises questions as to how Germany’s legacy parties (i.e. the CDU/CSU, FDP, and SPD) will perform.

Observers are also speculating about the most likely coalition outcomes. In the 2024 regional elections, the AfD achieved historic success, securing over 70 seats in the Bundestag. If the AfD gains additional seats, their chances of joining a coalition increase significantly. Such a development could usher in a shift toward political realism in Germany, with Berlin prioritizing bilateral interests in energy, economics, and security in a more divided global environment.

If this occurs, we could see a gradual shift towards political realism in Germany — a Berlin that pursues bilateral interests in energy, economics, and security — in a world that is becoming more fractious.

Sources: AP News, The Guardian, EuroNews, DW

End Brief

That concludes this brief.

I hope you learned something from this Europe-heavy update. I believe we are in a significantly historic time.

As always, send me any questions, comments, or concerns you may have: [email protected]

See you in the New Year!

Nick