Good morning,

I hope you had a nice holiday and a relaxing weekend. This is your Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief. Let’s begin.

Estimated Read Time: 5 minutes

Reporting Period: 28 November - 1 December 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

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Russia Seeks To Expand North Korean Partnership

On 29 November, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov arrived in North Korea (DPRK) to expand bilateral strategic relations. On Telegram, the Russian MOD confirmed that Belousov will meet with various military and political leaders of the DPRK.

On 30 November, Belousov met with Kim Jong Un before departing North Korea. The Korean Central News Agency, North Korea’s state media, stated the two reached a consensus on how to expand the Russo-Korean strategic partnership.

Why This Matters

In June 2024, Russia and North Korea signed a strategic partnership treaty which included a mutual defense clause. It was Putin’s first visit to the DPRK since 2000 and the most substantial strategic diplomacy between Moscow and Pyongyang since the days of the Soviet Union.

The June treaty was the foundation for military aid to Russia which included more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers now fighting in the Kursk oblast.

Belousov’s meeting indicates Russia’s desire for greater support from the DPRK. It is possible that North Korea could provide more troops for combat operations in Ukraine in addition to more munitions and materiel.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by AP News

• Coverage by The Moscow Times

• Coverage by AP News

• Announcement on Telegram (this is a Russian social media site)

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Lithuania Expels Chinese Diplomats

On 29 November, Lithuania declared that three Chinese diplomats were no longer welcome in Lithuania due to unspecified violations of the 1961 Vienna Convention and Lithuanian law. The diplomats have been instructed to leave Lithuania within the week.

In March 2024, Lithuania’s counterintelligence service stated that China could interfere in national elections. Lithuania held presidential and parliamentary elections in May and October 2024, respectively.

Why This Matters

Chinese and Lithuanian relations have remained strained:

• Diplomatic relations have deteriorated since 2021 when Vilnius said it would host a Taiwanese embassy

• Last week, a Chinese vessel transiting the Baltic Sea intentionally dragged its anchor along the sea floor which resulted in two undersea cables being severed. One of those cables connected Sweden and Lithuania.

Lithuania’s expulsion also signals a growing concern in Europe that adversary hybrid warfare actions are increasing. Various European governments and intelligence services have warned of growing Russia sabotage, but Chinese activities may be on the rise as well.

China, which views hybrid warfare as one of “three warfares” that define its national strategy, is a frequent purveyor of cyberattacks, economic and supply chain sabotage, and information warfare.

It is likely that China will look to grow its hybrid warfare campaign in Europe as NATO looks to build a greater presence in the Indo-Pacific amid fears of an invasion of Taiwan.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by US News

• Roots of Chinese hybrid warfare by CEPA

• Chinese hybrid warfare by The Strategist

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Protests In Georgia As Government Pauses EU Bid, US Suspends Strategic Partnership

On 29 November, large-scale protests erupted in Georgia after the ruling Georgian Dream party stated it was suspending its accession talks with the EU and NATO until 2028. On 30 November, more than 100,000 protestors formed barricades around parliament in Tbilisi, the capital.

On 30 November, the US State Department issued a statement condemning the decision to suspend accession talks. The US has urged Georgia to investigate recent election abuses which supports calls from the EU demanding a recount. The State Department also suspended the US-Georgian Strategic partnership:

Hundreds of protestors have been arrested. CNN reported that protestors also injured 10 parliamentary employees.

Background: On 26 October, Georgia held parliamentary elections in which the Georgian Dream party secured 53.94% of votes. Georgia Dream is the ruling populist party and ran on a pro-Russia, EU skepticism platform. A four-party coalition in opposition to Georgian Dream only received 37.78% of votes. Various international media and watchdog organizations reported on heavy election interference.
Additionally, in May 2024, the Georgian parliament voted to uphold a law that designated foreign nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) as foreign agents; a law that is co-opted from 2012 legislation from the Russian Duma and signals deeper institutional integration with Russia.

Why This Matters

Georgia’s political developments, the suspension of the US-Georgian Strategic partnership, and the delay in seeking EU and NATO membership are considerable deteriorations in relations and Georgia’s path to liberalization.

The Georgia Dream’s policies indicate a desire for stronger alignment with Russia. It is very likely that protests will continue. it is possible that the Georgian government could use escalatory and violent methods to quell protests.

Comment: Two of Georgia’s breakaway regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, were formed as the result of Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia. Both regions host Russian military bases.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by POLITICO

• Coverage by CNN

• Announcement by US State Department

• Election coverage by The Intel Brief

• Foreign agent law by CFR

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Kosovo Blames Serbia For Attack On Critical Canal

On 29 November, the Ibër-Lepenci canal was damaged by an explosion, cutting off the supply of water from Gazivoda Lake to several Kosovo cities.

Kosovo’s Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, accused Serbia of orchestrating an attack on the canal with Serbian-linked gangs and proxies. The attack significantly damages Kosovo’s water and energy supply as winter settles in.

Kosovo police arrested 8 people belonging to Civilna Zastita (Civil Protection), a Serbian organization under terrorist designation. Al Jazeera reports that “police raided 10 locations, sized 200 military uniforms, six shoulder-fired rocket launchers, long weapons, pistols and ammunition.”

Background: Kosovo is predominantly Albanian but has a Serbian diaspora in the north part of the country, many of which claim Serbian nationality and sovereignty over Kosovo. Serbia and Kosovo have maintained hostile relations since end of the Kosovo War in 1999. Currently, NATO troops under the Kosovo Force (K-FOR) remain deployed in Kosovo as peacekeepers. Since 2022, the North Kosovo Crisis has been escalating. In September 2023, the crisis reached its most violent point when 30 Kosovo Serbs ambushed Kosovo police in North Kosovo before barricading themselves in a monastery. Various local policies, such as the ban of the Serbian dinar and Serbian license plates, have continued to escalate ethnic tensions.

Why This Matters

Previous developments in North Kosovo, such as election boycotts, license plate and currency bans, and the deployment of K-FOR have resulted in violent confrontations between Kosovo Albanians and Serbs.

It is likely that canal sabotage will result in further diplomatic deterioration between Kosovo and Serbia. It is possible that NATO could deploy additional forces to supplement K-FOR as the likelihood of violence by ethnic separatist groups increases.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by RFE/RL

• Coverage by Al Jazeera

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China Denounces US Arms Sale, Taiwanese Diplomacy; Vows “Countermeasures”

On 1 December, the Global Times, a Chinese state-media outlet, published two propaganda pieces denouncing Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s visit to US territories as well as a recent US arms sale to Taiwan.

CCP Spokesperson Chen Binhua denounced President Lai’s stopover visit to Hawaii following various diplomatic visits to remote Pacific islands this past weekend.

Chen further classified Lai’s visit as a manipulative trick intended to subvert international norms.

The Global Times also published an article committing to “strong, resolute countermeasures” in response to President Biden’s recent $385 million arms sale to Taiwan; a deal that provides spare parts for fighters, radar systems, and communication equipment.

China called the arms sale a violation of international law, a risk to the Cross-Strait relationship, and inconsistent with US policy towards Taiwan.

Why This Matters

Before President Lai’s visit to outlying Pacific islands and Hawaii, the Taiwanese government warned that China might retaliate with further military incursions or exercises around the island. Taiwan recently conducted air defense drills to deter and prepare for such a scenario.

China’s interpretation of the events also risks deteriorating already-tense Sino-US relations. President-elect Trump, who has vowed to institute tariffs on China, takes office on 20 January 2025.

Want To Read More?

• Arms sale by Global Times

• Lai’s visits by Global Times

End Brief

That concludes this edition of The Intel Brief. I hope you learned something!

See you Thursday,

Nick