Good morning,

I hope you enjoyed your weekend. There are a few updates you should be aware of.

Give yourself about 5 minutes for this one. Let’s begin.

Reporting Period: 29 August - 1 September

Bottom Line Up Front:

South American Defense Conference Focuses On Regional Threats, Future Cooperation

The South American Defense Conference 2024 (SOUTHDEC 24) convened from 27-29 August. In a press release by US Southern Command, it was revealed that partner nations discussed key regional threats and how the US and South American allies will cooperate in the future.

Here are some of the topics that were addressed:

The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, USAF General Charles Brown and the commander of US Southern Command, Army General Laura Richardson, were joined by defense leaders across the region. They were joined by officials from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, and Uruguay.

Interestingly, leaders from various US National Guard units attended.

Why This Matters

South America have some key regional challenges that threaten both regional and American security. The primary concern for the US is political instability and rising authoritarianism which influences other issues like organized crime, migration and humanitarian crises, and civil conflict.

Want To Read More?

• Press release by US Southern Command

Marine Corps Commandant Releases 39th Planning Guidance

On 29 August, Commandant of the Marine Corps General Eric Smith released the “39th Commandant’s Planning Guidance” which outlines his priorities for force development.

General Smith noted that nothing the Marine Corps does is untouchable. His top priorities are as follows:

Why This Matters

The Commandant is organizing the Marine Corps around two primary concerns: the rising near-peer threat in China (and its Russian and North Korean allies), and the perpetual battle for relevancy.

As America’s elite response force, these concerns are all dependent on what the Marine Corps is capable of doing in the warfighting domain, a factor that emerging technologies and growing adversaries constantly undermines.

Want To Read More?

• Original guidance by the Department of Defense

• Coverage by National Defense

Ukraine Asks For More Air Defense Systems After First F-16 Destroyed

On 30 August, Ukrainian officials visiting Washington met with Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III. In the meeting, Ukrainian officials briefed Austin about the recent Russian strike across Ukraine that involved more than 400 missiles. The Ukrainian diplomats requested more air defense systems and munitions.

On 31 August, an NPR report suggested that Ukraine’s first F-16 casualty was due to friendly fire. On 30 August, President Zelensky fired the Ukrainian Air Force commander following the Russian barrage and the loss of a valuable F-16. In a hearing, a Ukrainian officials suggested that a donated Patriot missile system destroyed the F-16 and killed the pilot. The allegations were not outright denied.

Why This Matters

Ukraine waited a long time for F-16s but is now facing the possibility of them being grounded by their Western donors. Additionally, if Ukraine did shoot down the F-16 with its own Patriot system, it raises the question of Ukraine’s warfighting competencies.

Ukraine experienced a massive missile barrage which makes tracking and controlling objects in the air very difficult. A friendly fire incident might indicate a lack of sensor systems (like radar) and poor command and control (C2) training.

There is an ongoing investigation into the incident. The results of which could alter the type of aid Ukraine receives in the future.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by NPR

• Coverage by Reuters

• Coverage by CNN

Russia Gaining Ground, Countering Ukraine’s Kursk Attack

Ukrainian forces still occupy territory in Russia’s Kursk region. Critics in Ukraine’s military and government say that the Kursk operation might be a mistake. Russian forces are close to Pokrovsk, one of Ukraine’s key hubs for moving supplies and personnel to combat zones.

Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad are the last Ukrainian-held towns in the Donetsk region. A Ukrainian military expert warned the if Pokrovsk falls, Ukraine’s frontline could break. President Zelensky styled the situation as “extremely difficult.”

Why This Matters

The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk was initially met with enthusiasm and support. It appeared that Ukraine had tactfully seized Russian territory to destroy supply lines and divert assets away from the front.

The coming weeks might tell a different story, as Russia could push along Ukraine’s eastern front and breakthrough the defensive line.

How Ukraine continues to prosecute this war will very likely influence how much aid the West continues to give. Biden is out soon, so a new US presidency will likely reassess its own Ukraine policy.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by BBC

Reminder: Congress To Reconvene

Congress is set to reconvene in Washington on 9 September. They enter their next state work period on 30 September, which is considered a deadline for some major policy bills.

Still needing addressed, for example, is the Farm Bill and the Defense Authorization Act and Appropriation Bills.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by KFYR TV

• Schedule by US Congress

End Brief

Thanks for reading this edition of The Intel Brief.

Your next brief will be on Thursday @ 0630 ET.

Thanks for reading,

Nick