Good morning,

This edition of The Intel Brief covers the myriad political crises across the globe. This one is critical to high-level geopolitics so I recommend you having a more thorough read through. Enjoy.

Reporting Period: 5 - 9 December 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

France’s Government Collapses, Highlighting Crisis In Major Democracies

Summary
On 4 December, France’s National Assembly passed a vote of no-confidence against Prime Minister Michel Barnier and his government. Despite a 22% approval rate, French President Emmanuel Macron has stated his intention to retain his position until 2027. France now has a caretaker government and no budget as the New Year approaches. It is likely that Macron will appoint a prime minister from the far-left “Front Populaire” party due to it holding most seats in parliament.

Findings

• Background: In June 2024, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party decisively won elections. Macron controversially called for snap elections and a second round of voting was held. No party was able to establish a majority and form a government. Macron appointed Michel Barnier as Prime Minister.

• Fragile Start: With 212 of 577 seats, Barnier’s administration was one of the smallest minority governments in French history. Deep political divisions are overshadowed by severe economic issues in France.

• Snap Elections: France’s constitution allows for national elections 10 months after a previous election. That means snap elections will have to wait until Summer 2025.

• Macron-ism: Much of France’s political drama can be accredited to Macron’s shocking and controversial leadership (e.g. Rejecting National Rally’s victory, calling snap elections, and appointing Barnier despite a far-left victory in June). French parties across the aisle have called for Macron’s resignation.

Why This Matters
The collapse of government in France is the latest crisis that also reflects the fragility of democracies around the globe:

• Germany: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces a vote of no confidence in the Bundestag later this month, with federal elections scheduled for February 2025

• South Korea: South Korea is in an ongoing crisis after the President declared marital law in a failed coup d'état. South Korean legislators in parliament have called for impeachment proceedings to begin

• Romania: Romania’s top court recently annulled the results of presidential elections, citing Russian influence campaigns. A second round of voting, or run offs, concluded yesterday. Romania’s path remains uncertain.
  The country is expanding the Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base for NATO, which is set to be larger than Ramstein Air Base in Germany.

• Georgia: Georgia is currently facing large-scale protests which began after the far-right Georgia Dream party paused accession talks for Georgian membership in the European Union. On 4 December, a opposition leader was dragged from parliament by police. Recent elections, which Georgia Dream won, were rife with election interference and corruption

Sources: BBC, NYT, Euro News, NPR, CNBC, DW

Putin Continues To Expand Russia’s Role In The Indo-Pacific

Summary
On 5 December, the Russian and North Korean mutual defense pact went into effect after officials exchanged ratification documents. Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un signed the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty in June 2024. Similarly, the arrival of Russian warships at a Chinese port close out a year of increased Russian and Chinese security cooperation.

Findings

• Strategic Partnership: The mutual defense pact compels each party to support the other if they are attacked. Russia increasingly views the war in Ukraine as defensive due to Kyiv’s use of western-supplied weapons. North Korea has sent weapons, munitions, and soldiers to the frontlines in Ukraine while Russia has provided support to Pyongyang’s missile programs. The Russian defense minister met with Kim Jong Un last week, and it is likely that North Korea will expand aid to Moscow’s ongoing offensive operations.

• Russian-Chinese Relations: Despite speculation that the Russia-Korea pact and the war in Ukraine have distanced Putin and Xi, the Russian-Chinese partnership remains significant. The two met three times in 2024 and their militaries conducted several exercises. Deep military and economic ties show commitment to the “multipolar world order” concept, especially in regards to anti-western strategy.

Why This Matters
Russia’s growing role in Indo-Pacific affairs has complicated western strategies there:

• Deterrence: Russia’s pact with North Korea and close relations with China decrease the likelihood of a speedy or resolute US intervention in a flashpoint conflict like Taiwan or a South China Sea scenario. Look at the map above: Russia’s geographic position and dispersion of assets allows China to artificially extend its sphere of influence and, as a result, disperses America’s strategic posture.

• Influence: Russia’s growing role in Asia helps Beijing pressure developing nations into embracing alternatives to the American-led order.

• Unseen Influence: Remember that much of geopolitics cannot be depicted on maps. Russia, China, and North Korea are ever-increasing their economic integration. This includes energy. Also take note of their growing cooperation on cyber operations as a means of harassing and attacking western adversaries without kinetic effects.

Sources: DW, The Moscow Times, Marine Corps Times, Newsweek, VOA

South Korean President Avoids Impeachment

Summary
On 7 December, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol avoided an impeachment ruling after parliament failed to establish two-thirds support necessary for the motion. Yoon’s own party, the People Power Party, condemned his martial law declaration but did not support the impeachment vote.

Findings

• Impeachment: The opposition Democratic Party is planning to submit another vote for impeachment when a new session in parliament opens on Wednesday.

• Protest: AP News reported that a survey indicates that a majority of Korean citizens want Yoon to resign or be impeached. Protests are likely to increase in size and frequency until a resolution is made.

• Resignation: Yoon’s own party, the PPP, said it will seek Yoon’s “orderly” exit from the presidential office. It did not provide any further details. Yoon has more than two years in office.

Why This Matters
Until a resolution is reached, South Korean legislators are likely to continue to pressure Yoon to resign. It is very likely that his opposition will call for another impeachment vote.

South Korea’s citizens, who now widely support Yoon’s resignation, are likely to continue protests. While unlikely, it is possible that Yoon could avert these pressures by rallying support from his party.

Sources: AP News, The Intel Brief

EU Concludes Negotiations On Mercosur Agreement, Pending Ratification

Summary
On 5 December, the European Commission announced that it finalized a EU-Mercosur partnership agreement. The agreement establishes free trade between the EU and Mercosur countries. The deal has been 25 years in the making. European Union member states do not unanimously support the deal. The deal still needs ratified in the EU.

Findings

• Mercosur: The Mercosur countries are Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay and are significant agricultural exporters.

• Support: The EU does not unanimously support the agreement. Germany, who has significant exports to Mercosur, supports the deal. France opposes the agreement, fearing cheap agricultural imports will hurt French farmers. In the EU Parliament, France leads and anti-Mercosur coalition.

• Content: If ratified, the deal would support cooperation on economic growth, supply chain stability, climate change, deforestation, and lowering trade costs. The deal establishes the Paris Agreement as a part of the deal; a condition that could complicate the deal over time as South American markets grow.

Why This Matters
The EU-Mercosur agreement still needs ratified in the European Union. Here is what happens next:

• The documents will be published and released online

• The documents will be reviewed for legality purposes

• The documents will be translated and disseminated to EU member states

• The documents will be submitted to the EU Council and Parliament for ratification votes

Despite the collapse of its domestic government, France is very likely to continue lobbying against the agreement.

Sources: EU Commission, POLITICO

Regime Collapses In Syria, Assad Flees Country

Summary
On 8 December, Syrian President Bashar Assad fled Syria to Moscow, ending a 14-year dictatorship. Assad fled after the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HST) rebel group seized Damascus following a week of renewed offensives. The US is monitoring the situation and President-elect Trump said the US should not get involved.

Findings

• Background: HST and other rebel groups renewed fighting in Syria last week, capturing Aleppo. The Assad regime, which is supported by Russia and Iran, was planning a counteroffensive. Poor coordination led to slow and disjointed responses, and the HST offensive resulted in the capture of Damascus.

• HST: The rebel group that led the renewed fighting and capture of Aleppo and Damascus was once affiliated with Al-Qaeda. The group is led by Mohammed al-Golani. The group seeks to establish Islamic rule over Syria.

• Israel: Seeing opportunity and fearing attacks on Israel from Syrian territory, Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered the IDF to seize territory in the buffer zone between Syria and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Netanyahu said the collapse of the Assad regime can be attributed to Israel’s campaign against Iranian proxies.

• US: President Biden said the US will help the Syrian people establish a democratic government. Prior to that, Trump took to X to say that the United States should not get involved.

• Syria: The Syrian Prime Minister said that he would be willing to “cooperate” with the rebels, stating he wants new leadership elected by the Syrian people.
  Russia’s TASS news agency reported that Assad and his family arrived in Moscow after being granted asylum.

Why This Matters
The resurgence of conflict in Syria threatens regional stability, potentially fueling terrorism, worsening the refugee crisis, and straining international aid systems. Seven million Syrians have been displaced by the war with over 80% living in poverty.

The involvement of powers like Russia, Turkey, and Iran risks a continuation of proxy conflict as an extension of great power competition.

Biden’s commitment to building a democratic Syria is likely to receive pushback from Washington and abroad. Syria is still riddled with rebel factions and terrorist organizations, so ensuring a stable democratic system would likely require military support.

Sources: AP News, CNN, USA Today, CSIS, TASS

End Brief

That concludes this edition of The Intel Brief. I hope you learned something.

Feel free to provide comments or concerns to me directly: [email protected] 

Thanks for your continued support,

Nick