Good morning,

This is the Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief where I update you on some significant foreign policy and national security developments from the weekend.

Let’s begin.

Reporting Period: 6-10 February 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Trump Clarifies Gaza Stance As Criticism Mounts

Summary
During a joint press conference with Netanyahu, President Trump announced plans for the U.S. to own and rebuild Gaza. The plan has drawn criticism from abroad despite Trump clarifying some details.

Findings

• Trump’s Gaza Plan: On 4 February, President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a new plan for Gaza which included U.S. “ownership” and oversight of reconstruction.
  The announcement drew heavy criticism in the U.S. and abroad.
  Trump has since clarified some details, stating U.S. troops would not be used for the proposed nation-building project. However, Trump did state the Gaza Strip would be turned over to the U.S. once Israel concludes the fighting there.
  Media outlets are beginning to report that U.S. contractors will oversee Trump’s Gaza plan:

• Support: Secretary of Defense Hegseth stated that all options — meaning the deployment of U.S. troops and assets — are on the table and that he does not want to get ahead of Trump’s vision.
  The DOD is also drafting guidance on the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, indicating Washington will not oversee the installment of a democratic government there and that troops could be relocated to support operations in Gaza.

• Criticism: Trump’s decision drew criticism and support in the U.S.
  However, it drew a lot of criticism from abroad. For example, France, Russia, and the UN have condemned Trump’s plan.
  Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan — who Trump said would support the plan — have condemned it. Jordan stated it would go to war with Israel if Palestinians are relocated there.

Why This Matters
The bottom line is that there are many unaddressed questions about Trump’s plan for Gaza.

• Why is the U.S. going to do this?

• What is the vision for Gaza’s reconstruction?

• Where will Gaza’s residents go? Who will live and work in Gaza?

• Who will pay for this project? How will the U.S. taxpayer benefit?

• How will regional powers respond? Who supports this policy? Who opposes it, and to what degree?

Sources: NPR, ABC News, Washington Times, CBS, NBC, AP News, Reuters, CBS, Al Jazeera, Reuters

Germany Suspects Russian Sabotage Behind Vandalism Spree, Election Interference

Summary
German officials have stated that previous acts of automobile vandalism are likely to have been perpetrated by Russian agents. Officials suggest that the vandalism spree was intended to damage the reputation of the Green Party ahead of snap elections.

Findings

• Sabotage: Since December 2024, more than 270 vehicles in Berlin, Brandenburg, Bavaria, and Baden-Württemberg have been vandalized. Vandals sprayed expanding construction foam into car exhausts, rendering them inoperable. Vandals also stuck stickers with images and slogans associated with “The Greens” party on the cars.

• Bundespolizei: German police are investigating a claim by Spiegel that perpetrators from Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Germany were hired by Russian operatives via Viber, a messaging software. Perpetrators were allegedly offered €100 per vehicle vandalized.
  POLITICO reports that one detainee confessed to the crimes and was offered “several thousand euros” and legal support by a Russian contact.

• Election Meddling: Germany’s domestic intelligence agency — the BfV — warned that Russia’s hybrid operations are growing and that Moscow is increasingly relying on “low-level agents” to engage in acts that influence public opinion. In this instance, a narrative of Green party supporters vandalizing vehicles could diminish Green’s support ahead of snap elections on 23 February.

Why This Matters
The reporting indicates a continued presence and expansion of Russia’s hybrid warfare activity in NATO states. It also indicates Russia’s attempts to grow its low-level operations by recruiting everyday citizens to perpetrate pettier crimes or actions.

However, this does mean that low-level actions do not have high-level or strategic yields. For example, original news coverage — and the ensuing social media dialogue — condemned climate activists and the Green Party.

Secondary and tertiary effects also include the time and resources that are expended in trying to address or resolve the issue. For example, law enforcement personnel must respond, take statements, and file reports. For victims, they need to repair their vehicles at high cost. At the highest level, in theory, the story could damage the reputation of the Green Party and lose their support in upcoming elections.

However, there is no certainty that all the acts of vandalism were perpetrated by Russian agents.

Sources: Spiegel, DW, POLITICO, POLITICO

Republican Senators Introduce Legislation To Promote Trump’s “Iron Dome” Executive Order

Summary
On 6 February, Senators Sullivan (R-AK) and Cramer (R-ND) introduced the Increasing Response Options and Deterrence of Missile Engagements (IRON DOME) Act.

Findings

• IRON DOME Act: If approved, a press release says the act will increase America’s ability to protect itself from nuclear threats. Taking recommendations from the 2022 Missile Defense Review, the act aims to do three things:

  • Increase domain awareness (i.e. sensors and tracking systems)

  • Expand the domestic missile defense capacity (i.e. the launchers and projectiles)

  • Accelerate the development of new air defense capabilities

  The legislation includes developing a space-based sensor and intercept platform in addition to expanding the infrastructure at Fort Greely (Alaska) and the PARCS radar site (North Dakota).

• Budget: Inside Defense reports a proposed budget of $19.5 billion for the IRON DOME Act. It is uncertain what the annual cost — once the systems are developed and deployed — will be.
  The legislation would authorize the following:

Why This Matters
There is growing concern that as adversary technologies improve, and missile arsenals grow, the U.S. is becoming less and less prepared to defend itself from nuclear or conventional missile strikes.

While the Iron Dome concept is being presented as a project to defend the homeland, it would likely include an expansion to more forward-deployed air defense facilities.

I think the Trump administration is very likely to expand U.S. air and missile defense facilities in the Pacific to counter and deter China’s rapidly growing missile arsenal. I also think it is likely — with Denmark’s recent approval — that the U.S. will grow a missile defense posture on Greenland.

Sources: U.S. Senate, Inside Defense

Ukraine Launches New Kursk Offensive As Kyiv States Readiness For Negotiations

Summary
On 8 February, Ukraine confirmed it carried out new offensive operations in Russia’s Kursk Oblast. The announcement follows statements by President Trump that he and Putin spoke and are ready for peace negotiations. Zelenskyy also stated he is ready to begin negotiations, but that Kyiv and Washington need to reach a bilateral agreement to guarantee Ukrainian security.

Findings

• Kursk Offensive: On 8 February, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukrainian forces were carrying out a renewed offensive against Russian and North Korean troops in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
  Zelenskyy said the initial assaults led to a “significant number” of Russian casualties. The Russian Ministry of Defense stated it repelled a Ukrainian attack there. As Ukraine pushes in Kursk, Russia continues to progress in Donetsk, having seized the Ukrainian town of Toretsk on Friday.

• Negotiating Power: An ISW analyst told CNN that Kursk does not have much tactical value in itself, but that Ukraine wants to hold it for negotiating purposes.

• Zelenskyy’s Demands: Trump has essentially cut aid to Ukraine and has stated he wants a mineral partnership in gratuity for the United States’ financial and military support during the war. Zelenskyy remains open to the deal but wants security guarantees. Zelenskyy recently said Ukraine should either receive nuclear weapons or NATO membership, notions that the Biden administration even rejected.

• Trump and Putin: On 8 February, President Trump told the New York Post that he had spoken with Russian President Putin. Trump stated talks with Putin “made a lot of progress,” but neither Trump nor the Kremlin confirmed when talks took place, how many times, or what details were discussed.

Why This Matters
The first thing to consider is that Trump and Putin may soon establish a meeting time and place to begin negotiations, especially since Zelenskyy has expressed interest in beginning talks.

However, it is uncertain whether or not talks would make any progress. Putin and the Kremlin previously stated Ukraine cannot engage in diplomacy with Moscow until Zelenskyy lifts a decree he established at the war’s beginning.

Additionally, Ukraine’s possession of Kursk despite its inability to continue fighting the war in the long term complicates its ability to make demands in relation to its interests. As it stands, Ukraine is likely to lose territory and be rejected by NATO. Kyiv’s interest is to minimize its losses and establish criteria to deter a future Russian invasion. If Ukraine holds Kursk beyond negotiations, it could be used as a future casus belli by Russia.

Sources: AP News, CNN, Reuters, CNN

End Brief

That concludes this edition of The Intel Brief.

I hope you enjoyed it and I hope you learned something.

Care to leave some feedback?

See you Thursday,

Nick