Good morning,

This is your Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief.

Reporting Period: 6-10 March 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

European Leaders Gather For Ukraine Talks, France Seeks Leading Role

Summary
On 4 March, European leaders met in a special council to discuss European defence and support for Ukraine. French President Macron characterized the meeting with a simple perspective, noting Europe is at a “turning point of history.”

Findings

• European Meeting: The meeting on 4 March was a follow-up to the London Summit in which European leaders agreed, in principle, to the EU Commission’s ReArm Europe plan and the UK-led “Coalition of the Willing” which may include troop deployments eastward, including as peacekeepers to Ukraine. The meeting laid the groundwork for future meetings.

• EU Defense Surge: On 6 March, EU leaders met again. At the meeting in Brussels, the European leaders agreed to spend more on defence while continuing to provide aid, money, and intelligence to Ukraine.
  EU leaders agreed to boost defense spending by $841 billion, the biggest defense package in EU history.

• France’s Growing Role: France, which has the largest defense industry in Europe, may be seeking to take an even bigger security role for the continent. On 5 March, President Macron warned that Europe must prepare for the U.S. to not “remain by our side” and that France could overtake much of the EU’s defense and deterrence through its nuclear arsenal.

Why This Matters
While Europe’s “watershed” defense spending moment is being praised as a historic, unifying shift in the EU, the alliance still faces some internal and external challenges.

Internally, there are questions as to how the EU will raise funds for defense spending, if Europe’s defense industry can keep up (and remain relevant) without the U.S., and if all EU members support the policy shift. For example, Hungary has stated it does not support the current proposal and that other EU members might follow suit.

Sources: CNN, BBC, Firstpost, Semafor, Reuters

USAF Discusses Future Plans, F/A-XX Program Changes, And Golden Dome Prioritization

Summary
In a summit in Colorado, the U.S. Air Combat Command (ACC) alluded to its focus on next-generation air superiority, emphasizing the integration of advanced technology for enhanced combat capabilities. Meanwhile, Lockheed Martin has withdrawn from the U.S. Navy's F/A-XX program, leaving Boeing and Northrop Grumman as the remaining competitors for the sixth-generation fighter contract.

Findings

• Air Superiority Focus: In a recent address, ACC General emphasized the importance of achieving next-gen air dominance, outlining the need for rapid development of more advanced fighter systems. The strategy involves incorporating both manned and unmanned aircraft into a unified, integrated force, aiming to maintain U.S. superiority in contested airspaces.

• F/A-XX Program: The Navy's F/A-XX program, designed to replace the Super Hornet and complement the F-35, will focus on multi-role capabilities including air-to-air combat and electronic warfare. Lockheed Martin’s proposal for this fighter did not meet the Navy’s requirements, removing it from the competition. The remaining contenders are Boeing and Northrop Grumman, both of which are finalizing designs for the aircraft expected to enter service in the 2030s.

• Golden Dome Air Defense System: President Trump has prioritized the development of the Golden Dome missile defense system in response to evolving missile threats. This system is expected to enhance U.S. defense capabilities by providing a robust shield against long-range missile attacks, marking a strategic shift in air defense priorities.

Why This Matters
The focus on next-gen air superiority reflects the U.S. military’s desire to expand manned aircraft capabilities as technologies, such as drones and hypersonic missiles, have shed doubts on the relevance of manned, sixth generation fighters.

In fact, Air Force General Wilsbach was very clear about the future of U.S. air power:

However, Lockheed Martin’s exit from the F/A-XX competition shifts future contracts toward Boeing and Northrop Grumman and raises questions about the program’s current progress. Remember, the F-35 program — which some say was a bust — has gone billions of dollars over budget.

Meanwhile, with the hopes of addressing other threats, such as hypersonic missiles and ICBMs, President Trump has put the emphasis on the Golden Dome system, highlighting the increasing need for advanced missile defense solutions in light of growing global threats from nations like China and North Korea.

Sources: U.S. Department of Defense, Army Recognition, The Aviationist,

German Political Rivals Closer To Forming Coalition Government

Summary
In a significant development for German politics, Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz's CDU/CSU Union party and the Social Democrats (SPD) have successfully concluded preliminary talks to form a coalition government. The discussions are reportedly centered on migration, boosting economic growth, and military spending. The two parties aim to finalize a coalition by Easter, with Merz stressing the urgency of Germany's self-reliance in the face of Russian hostility.

Findings

• Coalition Talks: The preliminary talks concluded successfully on 8 March, with both parties agreeing on the need to take a tough stance on illegal immigration, including bolstering border controls and rejecting asylum seekers in coordination with EU neighbors.

• Economic Goals: The coalition aims for 1-2% economic growth after two years of contraction, the lowest economic output for Germany since reunification.

• Military Budget: Merz underscored the importance of increasing military spending, with a special emphasis on addressing the Bundeswehr’s (military) budget. One of the new government’s challenges will be rebuilding Germany’s military while remaining committed to delivering promised aid to Ukraine.

• Challenges: The proposed coalition faces opposition, particularly from the far-right and radical left lawmakers, who could block essential measures like changes to Germany’s “debt brake” and the introduction of a 500 billion-euro infrastructure fund.

Why This Matters
A new CDU-SPD government is likely to face a lot of challenges, especially within the Bundestag where the far-right and reformist AfD party hold the second highest amount of seats.

Additionally, political infighting was what led to Scholz’s SPD government collapsing. Unless the SPD offer significant changes to their platform in order to work with the CDU — something which would frustrate their voter base — then it is possible that the new government will struggle to address hard-hitting, controversial issues like the economy and migration.

Sources: Reuters, DW

Russia Advances In Kursk Oblast

Summary
Russian military forces have made steady advances in the Ukraine-held Kursk oblast, recapturing three settlements after perpetual offensive operations. These actions coincide with a reduction in U.S. support to Ukraine, raising concerns about potential encirclement of Ukrainian troops and shifting the conflict's dynamics ahead of peace negotiations.

Findings

• Strategic Advances: Russian forces reclaimed control over three settlements in the Kursk region, employing tactics that reportedly included infiltrating Ukrainian positions via a gas pipeline near Sudzha.

• Impact of U.S. Support Reduction: Mainstream reporting suggests that the suspension of U.S. military aid to Ukraine has significantly impacted Ukrainian defenses, leading to territorial losses in Kursk.

• International Reactions: The reduction in U.S. support has caused unease among European leaders, prompting preparations for upcoming negotiations between Ukraine and the U.S. in Saudi Arabia to address the evolving situation.

Why This Matters
The bottom-line is this: Ukraine needs to hold on to as much territory in Kursk as possible due to the potential negotiating power it would provide Kyiv in negotiations. In lieu of Kyiv being able to conduct large-scale offensives across its eastern front into Russian-occupied territories, Kursk was Kyiv’s best chance and what President Trump meant when he told Zelenskyy he “doesn’t have the cards.”

It is very likely that as the U.S.-EU-Ukraine feud continues, Russia will increase its offensive operations, especially in Kursk, to establish a dominant position ahead of peace negotiations.

Sources: The Guardian, The Telegraph, Financial Times, Reuters

End Brief

That concludes this brief.

Thank you for reading!

Nick