Good morning,

Today we are going to discuss the political crisis in Germany, what peace negotiations in Ukraine might look like, and Europe’s desire for American natural gas.

Give yourself about 5 minutes for this one.

Reporting Period: 8-10 November 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

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Kremlin Remains Open To Peace Negotiations Regarding Ukraine, Could Take Territory

On 7 November, Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu said the West should consider peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin believes it is winning the war and thinks western powers, primarily the US, should begin negotiations to reach a peace deal that accommodates current battlefield realities. This would likely mean Ukraine would have to cede territories like Crimea, Dontesk, and Luhansk.

Sergei Shoigu was the general originally tasked with the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Comment: On 9 November, retired USN Admiral James Stavridis stated that the Russo-Ukrainian war will end with Russia taking 20 percent of Ukraine:

Stavridis said such a settlement would allow Ukraine to begin the NATO entry process.

Why This Matters

Russia is likely to use its openness to negotiations as a tactic to limit or confuse Western support for Ukraine. If the US, Ukraine, and Russia were to sit down at the negotiating table, Moscow would almost certainly demand that Ukraine cede significant territories such as Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk.

Both Ukraine and the US are likely to reject such a proposal, though the specifics of what President Zelenskyy might be willing to accept remains unclear. The US should prioritize an agreement that can outlast Putin’s regime; one that allows Ukraine time to rebuild and strengthen its defenses. At a minimum, Russia will likely insist that Ukraine be excluded from NATO membership as part of any deal.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Reuters

• Ukraine conflict update by ISW

• Stavridis interview by Newsweek

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German Chancellor Fires Economic Minister, Calls For Vote Of No Confidence

On 6 November, in a public press conference, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired his finance minister after the coalition government failed to arrange a substantive economic policy. Scholz has called for a vote of no confidence scheduled for 15 January 2025. Snap elections could be as early as March 2025.

Why This Matters

Germany is contending with various economic, security, and migration issues and the Scholz government, which formed in December 2021, has proven ineffective in developing policy resolutions.

As a result, alternative factions on the far-left and far-right have grown in popularity. Of note is the Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) party, a right populist organization that seeks EU and NATO reform and changes to Germany’s immigration policy.

The AfD, and like parties, stand a greater chance of finding themselves in a new government via coalition. The AfD are likely to support a vote of no confidence, and may pursue coalition with Germany’s center-right or other revisionist parties.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by CNN

• Coverage by BBC

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Chinese Incursions Near Taiwan Up 300 Percent

On 8 November, General Kevin Schneider, commander of US Air Forces in the Indo-Pacific, said Chinese flights in and around Taiwan’s airspace have increased 300% since May 2024, when Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te was inaugurated.

Schneider stated that China has maintained the high incursion tempo due to the CCP viewing Lai Ching-te and his government as “separatist” and in open defiance of Chinese sovereignty. China paints the incursions as defensive and necessary for China’s defense against separatist activity.

In a formal conflict, China may attempt to limit international criticism by developing such a defensive narrative. This could also garner quicker and greater support from other multipolar powers such as Russia, North Korea, or Iran.

Why This Matters

Under Xi Jinping’s orders, the PLA have increased its incursions of Taiwanese airspace in an effort to pressure Taiwan’s defense posture and erode public faith in Taiwanese sovereignty.

Reports of increased incursions also coincide with estimates that the PLA would become more aggressive during the transition period between President Biden’s and President Trump’s administrations.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by NBC News

• Chinese exercises by Focus Taiwan

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Europe Hopes For US Natural Gas Growth Under Trump, Pivot From Russia

On 8 October, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said she discussed the expansion of America’s supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) with incoming President Donald Trump.

Von der Leyen highlighted Europe’s desire to focus on “common interests” between the US and Europe, and that the EU must do what it can to avoid a trade war with the US.

Why This Matters

Europe inherited an energy crisis when the war in Ukraine began in 2022. Europe still receives most of its LNG from Russia, which Moscow uses to fund its war effort. Europe pays for this gas at a significant markup through third parties outside of the EU and who remain friendly to Russia.

American LNG would be a cheaper and more reliable option.

There are concerns that Trump will institute tariffs on all imports to the US under a protectionist economic stance. Von der Leyen thinks an LNG deal could limit those effects and be a win-win; increasing cash flow to the US and lowering energy costs for a desperate European market.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Kyiv Post

• Russian pipelines by Statista

End Brief

That concludes this morning’s brief. I hope you learned something.

Is there something you want more coverage on? Are there recommendations or comments you want to share with me? Send me an email: [email protected]

See you on Thursday,

Nick