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Monday Morning Brief (8-11 August)
Ukraine attacks inside Russia, De-escalation talks in the Middle East, plus more...
Nick
August 12, 2024
Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals.
Good morning,
This is your Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief for this period.
Reporting Period: 8-11 August
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. Ukraine has launched attacks in Russia’s Kursk region. Ukraine is currently establishing a foothold there to launch other operations.
2. Biden administration officials are traveling to the Middle East this week. They will attend talks in Egypt to work towards de-escalation in the region.
3. Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with Yoav Gallant, Israel’s Defense Minister. They talked about plans to de-escalate the regional tensions, release hostages, and facilitate humanitarian assistance.
4. The Trump campaign said it was hacked in June. The campaign, citing a Microsoft report, said they were hacked by an Iranian group.
Missed yesterday’s Sunday SITREP? Read it here.
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Will an Iranian attack on Israel start a larger conflict?Let me know what you think about the situation. |
Ukrainian Surprise Attack Into Russia
On 8 August, Ukrainian forces shocked Moscow by crossing into Russia’s Kursk region to establish a foothold and conduct operations. Russian General Valery Gerasimov stated that nearly 1,000 Ukrainian troops, supported by armor, took part in the operation.
There are few details, but Ukraine stated they carried out the operation to displace Russia from positions that allow them to stage attacks.
Why This Matters
Ukraine has backed separatist factions within Russia before, and has even conducted missile and drone strikes in Russia territory. They have never crossed into Russia with ground troops. Reportedly, Putin views this as a “large-scale provocation.”
Ukraine has struggled to defend the eastern territories which raises questions as to why they would occupy parts of Kursk.
Want To Read More?
U.S. Diplomats On Their Way To Middle East To Avert War
On 10 August, it was reported that Biden administration officials will travel to the Middle East this week to discuss the release of hostages, a ceasefire, and de-escalation talks.
Middle East senior adviser Brett McGurk will lead a group of diplomats to Cairo, Egypt for talks. The U.S. wants to work with Egyptian officials to stop arms smuggling into Gaza and to reopen the Rafah Crossing; the sole crossing point between Egypt and Gaza.
Why This Matters
Officials have feared that a wider war in the Middle East could erupt following Israel’s assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. Both terror groups vowed vengeance, as did Iran.
No strikes have come from Iran yet, but American troops in Iraq and Syria have experienced missile and drone attacks. Hezbollah has also increased missile attacks in the region.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by Axios
Coverage by The Jerusalem Post
Secretary Of State Blinken Spoke With Israeli Defense Minister
On 9 August, the Department of State released a readout of the call between Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. The two spoke over the phone to discuss the current tensions in the Middle East.
The U.S. wants to:
1. Pursue de-escalation while remaining committed to Israel’s defense.
2. Pursue a ceasefire all sides would adhere to.
3. Secure the release of hostages. Blinken wants hostages on all sides released.
4. Allow entry and coordination of humanitarian aid. This is particularly regarding Gaza, but could include Lebanon.
5. Establish conditions for regional stability. This likely includes substantial dialogue with regional actors, not just Israel.
Why This Matters
The U.S. is actively looking for a diplomatic solution to ensure Iranian, Hezbollah, and Hamas retaliatory attacks do not expand the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict.
The U.S. is particularly worried about a conventional military response from Iran.
Additionally, much of what Blinken discussed with Gallant is what Biden identifies as his ceasefire plan for Gaza.
Want To Read More?
Readout from Department of State
Coverage of Biden’s plan by NPR
Trump Campaign Hacked By Foreign Sources
On 10 August, former President Donald Trump’s campaign team stated they were hacked by “foreign sources” as a strategy of election interference.
The campaign cited a Microsoft report and stated the following:
In June 2024, Mint Sandstorm -- a group run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intelligence unit -- sent a spear-phishing email to a high-ranking official of a presidential campaign from a compromised email account of a former senior advisor.
The IRGC are a special force within Iran’s military that specialize in hybrid warfare including the sponsorship and funding of terrorism (e.g. Hamas).
Why This Matters
Hacking is only one aspect of modern influence campaigns. The Microsoft report claimed Iran would also use social media to spread misinformation and attempt to influence American voters.
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End Brief
That concludes this Monday morning brief.
See you Thursday @ 0630 ET!
Thanks,
Nick