Monday Morning Brief (9-13 January 2025)

Biden pushed his final aid package to Ukraine alongside Russian sanctions, Greenland says it wants to negotiate with Trump, and Armenia wants to join the EU. Plus more...

Author

Nick
January 13, 2025

Curated foreign policy and national security news for professionals.

Good morning,

This is your Monday morning brief.

Be sure to review the summary and read more about whatever captures your interest. There are some major updates here as Trump prepares to take office.

Reporting Period: 9-13 January 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

1. President Biden’s administration announced its final aid package to Ukraine alongside new sanctions on Russian energy. The aid comes from the Presidential Drawdown Authority. The sanctions look to hamstring Russia’s energy industry and could be used by Trump as bargaining power in peace negotiations.

2. Trump said he is coordinating a meeting with Putin and possibly Xi Jinping. There is no confirmed date yet and he prefers to wait until he is inaugurated. Putin expressed mutual interest in beginning negotiations, as has Ukraine.

3. Armenia’s government endorsed an EU accession bill draft. The bill will go to parliament for approval and then to the EU for a referendum. The process could take years. This is the latest development in Armenia’s divergence from Russian influence and cooperation.

4. Greenland’s prime minister said he wants to negotiate with Trump. This statement comes as he has already called for Greenland’s full independence from Denmark, indicating a desire to expand strategic cooperation with the United States.

Biden Announces Final Aid Package For Ukraine, Sanctions For Russia

Summary
On 10 January, the United States announced it had implemented new sanctions on Russia’s oil industry after presenting Ukraine with a final military aid package.
Despite the fact that these decisions are against Russia’s interests and complicate Trump’s pre-inauguration diplomacy, the Biden administration has stated its decisions were made to give Ukraine the best leverage possible ahead of peace negotiations.

Findings

  • Aid: Biden’s final aid package to Ukraine allocates approximately $500 million from the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA). It includes air defense missiles, air-to-ground munitions, and parts for US-made F-16s. The US feels Ukraine has sufficient small arms munitions but is struggling with manpower issues, indicating a need to provide Ukraine with weapons and munitions that allow Kyiv to defend critical infrastructure and cities.
    Additionally, these are systems and platforms that could be supplemented with future aid to quickly re-establish a security umbrella over Ukraine in the event of a peace deal. Rebuilding deterrence increases the likelihood of Russia adhering to peace conditions in the future.

  • Sanctions: On 10 January, the US and UK announced sanctions against Russia’s oil sector. The US Treasury sanctions have targeted energy giants Gazprom and Surgutneftegaz, their subsidies, and some Russian elites. Also under new sanctions is Russia’s 183-vessel “shadow fleet” which is responsible for illicit, sanction-skirting oil sales and years of hybrid warfare activities in the Baltic Sea.
    On 11 January, Ukraine said it carried out a drone strike on the Taneco oil refinery in Tatarstan, Russia. The refinery is one of Russia’s largest.

  • NATO Troops: Alongside the announcement of US aid, Zelenskyy stated NATO should deploy troops to deter Russia and pressure peace. Zelenskyy did not suggest where NATO should deploy troops. The alliance has currently increased deployments of troops to its western fringes, such as Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria. Some nations, like France and the UK, previously suggested they would deploy troops to Ukraine if necessary.

Why This Matters
The new aid package to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia’s oil industry are likely to complicate possible peace negotiations. Putin and the Kremlin are very likely to denounce the decisions, vow retaliation, and could engage in peace negotiations coercively and with a less-than-compromising agenda.

It is also possible that Biden, pressured by NATO allies and his unsavory relationship with President-elect Trump, instituted these last-minute policies to complicate Trump’s policy agenda.

Looking at sanctions specifically, thes are unique. There is a perpetual debate in the foreign policy world as to whether or not sanctions even work, but now that the US is addressing Russia’s shadow fleet, Putin will be pressured to make some costly and calculated pivots in Russia’s energy industry.

One part of what the sanctions do, according to The Moscow Times, is force Indian refiners to reject Russian oil shipments from ships associated with the “shadow fleet.” Are there methods for Russia to get around this? Yes (e.g. “flag hopping,” altering ship registries). However, it means Russia will temporarily struggle to get its products to market.

Those refined products from India were reaching Western markets, so the US could experience temporary increases in prices. However, as Trump says he wants to unleash US energy manufacturing for export, revert Biden’s executive order restricting offshore drilling, and the EU wants a US energy deal, this could be favorable across Trump’s tenure.

Trump Working To Set Up Meeting With Putin, Xi To Begin Peace Negotiations

Summary
On 10 January, media outlets began reporting that Trump and Putin were setting up a meeting for after Trump takes office. The Kremlin provided a statement expressing Putin’s openness to negotiations and a desire to establish specific details, dates, and conditions. Trump briefly mentioned he would meet with Xi Jinping. The meeting could be a summit between relevant leaders.

Findings

  • Trump’s Statement: When Trump was questioned by reporters, he said he was working to schedule a meeting with Putin and Xi Jinping. When asked, Trump affirmed that the meeting could be a “summit” which would likely include relevant leaders and mediators. Ending the war is one of Trump’s top priorities.

  • Kremlin Statement: A Kremlin spokesperson stated that “President Putin has repeatedly stated his openness to contact with international leaders… what is required is a mutual desire and political will to conduct a dialogue.” The spokesperson said that “no specifics” have been established but that “there will be some developments” once Trump is inaugurated, indicating both parties are waiting for formalities.

  • Kyiv’s Statement: A Kyiv spokesperson said it was waiting for contact from high-level US officials after Trump’s inauguration. Ukraine’s priority is to “work together with America” due to Washington’s soft power and ability to bring and keep Russia at the table.

  • Conditions: Battlefield conditions currently favor Russia, as Ukraine is still struggling with manpower and procuring fighting equipment. Russian offensive operations have, recently, proven more successful than Ukrainian ones. Putin has previously maintained that for peace to occur, Ukraine cannot join NATO and Kyiv must cede eastern oblasts to Russia.

Why This Matters
This development signals the major shift in US foreign policy and international power dynamics that is anticipated under Trump’s leadership. A summit involving Trump, Putin, and Xi could redefine the geopolitical order by attempting to resolve the war in Ukraine while also addressing growing security concerns, such as Russia-NATO relations, or Chinese-Taiwanese relations.

In other words, while a peace deal would likely be unfavorable to Ukraine, it has the potential to reestablish diplomatic relations between major powers and the “rules-based international order.”

For the US, this poses both opportunities and risks: a successful negotiation could enhance its role as a peace broker, but concessions favoring Russia—such as legitimizing territorial acquisitions in Ukraine—could weaken US credibility with allies.

Armenian Government Pursues EU Accession

Summary
On 9 January, the Armenian government endorsed a draft bill that, if approved in parliament, would initiate Armenia’s accession into the European Union. Prime Minister Pashinyan said that Armenia’s accession would eventually require an EU referendum. The decision is a major blow to Russian-Armenian relations.

Armenia’s disassociation with Moscow began in 2020 and accelerated in 2023 due to events in Nagorno-Karabakh:

Findings

  • Roadblocks: Armenia faces various roadblocks as it works on joining the EU. The Caucasian nation does not touch Europe and is within Russia’s traditional sphere of influence. Armenia is a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), a Russian-led economic bloc of former Soviet states.
    Armenia is also a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), essentially a post-Soviet NATO.
    In December 2024, Pashinyan said it would leave the CSTO but did not provide a date. He previously withheld participation in CSTO drills and summits.

  • Nagorno-Karabakh: Armenia’s departure from Russia’s influence began in 2020 following Azerbaijan’s capture of Shusha in Nagorno-Karabakh and a 2023 Azerbaijan offensive into Artsakh that violated that agreement. Those operations led to Azerbaijan’s control of the ethnically Armenian region, a decision Pashinyan saw as being due to a lack of Russian military support.

Why This Matters
Armenia's pursuit of EU accession is a pivotal shift in the geopolitical balance of the Caucasus, with significant implications for Western security and international relations.

By distancing itself from Russia's sphere of influence and aligning with the European Union, Armenia challenges Moscow’s dominance in the region, creating opportunities for the US and its allies to strengthen ties with a key player in the strategically critical Caucasus corridor. This realignment reflects broader shifts as nations seek alternatives to Russian-led institutions like the CSTO and EAEU.

For the US, supporting Armenia's EU aspirations could counter Russian influence, enhance regional stability, and reduce the risk of conflict spillover into Europe or NATO’s eastern flank. Additionally, this realignment intersects with energy security dynamics, as Armenia's position near vital energy corridors linking Azerbaijan and Europe makes it a potential facilitator or disruptor of energy flows.

However, pro-Russian governments in Azerbaijan and Georgia complicate regional stability. The regional, already politically unstable, could draw greater Kremlin focus, with the worst-case scenario being the deployment of Russian troops to the region or a renewed Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

Greenland PM Open To Negotiations With Trump

Summary
On 11 January, Greenland Prime Minister Mute Egede said he is open to negotiating with President-elect Trump about Greenland’s future, its relationship with the United States, and the future of the Arctic region. On 3 January, Egede called for independence from Denmark.

Findings

  • Danish Authority: Since 1979, Greenland has controlled its domestic affairs through its parliament. However, Greenland remains a territory of Denmark who control its foreign and defense policies.

“Like other countries in the world, we must work to remove the obstacles to cooperation — which we can describe as the shackles of the colonial era — and move on… Our cooperation with other countries, and our trade relations, cannot continue to take place solely through Denmark.”

Mute Egede, Prime Minister, Greenland

  • Greenland’s Independence: Many have interpreted Egede’s recent remarks as an endorsement of Greenland’s absorption into the United States. Rather, independence from Denmark would allow Greenland to manage its own affairs with the US directly, meaning Egede could bilaterally negotiate economic and security deals with the US — free of Danish influence and authority.
    This could lead to the establishment of additional US bases in Greenland, unfettered sea access, increased trade and investment, and formal strategic cooperation. As Trump is right to point out, this is critical as the Arctic region becomes more relevant to geopolitics.

Greenland’s geographic location makes it strategically significant. Note its proximity to the Northwest Passage and proximity to Russia and the US. Greenland also possesses rich deposits of strategic resources such as oil, natural gas, and minerals.

  • Strategic Alignment: Due to their timing, Egede’s statements indicate a desire to increase Greenland-US relations under Trump. However, due to the region’s growing relevance to great-power politics, Egede could entertain greater relations and investments from powers like Russia and China.

Why This Matters
Greenland’s openness to negotiate directly with the United States underlines its growing strategic importance in great-power competition. Situated near critical Arctic shipping routes and rich in strategic resources, Greenland’s location is vital to US national security interests, particularly as climate change opens new Arctic pathways. If Greenland gains independence from Denmark, direct bilateral relations could enhance US military access, bolster energy security, and counter growing Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic.

End Brief

That concludes this Monday morning edition of The Intel Brief — I hope you enjoyed it.

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Thank you,

Nick