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- Pacific Weekly (11-17 November 2024)
Pacific Weekly (11-17 November 2024)
China claims Filipino islands as its own, the PLA reveal new stealth fighters, and the US conducted a trilateral naval exercise. Plus more...
Nick
November 17, 2024
Pacific Weekly
Good morning and happy Sunday,
This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.
Reporting Period: 11-17 November 2024
Bottom-Line Up Front:
1. The CCP has formally claimed contested islands from the Philippines. Huangyan Dao, also known as the Scarborough Shoal, is a contested territory within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. It has been the cause for various confrontations throughout 2024.
2. North Korea ratified its strategic partnership with Russia. The North Korean government rubber stamped the June treaty which includes a mutual defense agreement. It will go into effect once the documents are handed over to Russia’s diplomatic counterparts.
3. The US led trilateral exercise “Freedom Edge 24-2.” Japan and South Korea took part in the exercise. The USS George Washington was integral to the training and operations.
4. China unveiled new fighters at an airshow. With the J-20S and J-35A, China is the second nation (alongside the United States) to operate two 5th generation stealth fighters.
🇨🇳 🇵🇭
China’s Foreign Ministry Formally Claims Scarborough Shoal From The Philippines
On 10 November, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement which formally declares Huangyan Dao (i.e. Scarborough Shoal) and adjacent sea territory as Chinese. China claims they have the backing of international and Chinese law.
The Scarborough Shoal is a part of the Philippine’s economic exclusion zone as per the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. On 8 November, Filipino President Marcos signed the Philippine Maritime Zones Act to law which formalized Filipino sea territories identified by the UN charter.
China said it “will continue to do everything necessary” to defend its territories.
Why This Matters
China and the Philippines have had various confrontations in the South China Sea despite international arbitrations stating China’s claims were invalid.
In 2024, various encounters got violent. The PLA Navy and Coast Guard frequently trail, ram, or board Filipino vessels in the region in addition to obstructing naval missions or access to islands.
It is uncertain to what degree China will expand its naval incursions or aggressions. In 2021, China passed a law that allows its Coast Guard to use force in law enforcement operations in Chinese “maritime areas.”
Want To Read More?
Coverage by CNN
Marcos signs new law by Filipino Presidential Communications Office
Announcement by Chinese Foreign Ministry
🇰🇵 🇷🇺
North Korea Ratifies Defense Treaty With Russia
On 11 November, North Korea ratified the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which includes a mutual defense pact, that it signed with Russia in June 2024. Putin ratified the treaty last week. The partnership will take effect once the ratification documents are exchanged between parties.
Why This Matters
The treaty establishes deeper strategic ties between Russia and North Korea and includes cooperation on nuclear technology, space and cyber operations, and agriculture.
Additionally, the treaty includes a mutual defense pact which requires either nation to assist the other in the event they are attacked. North Korean troops are currently supplementing Russia’s offensive in the Kursk oblast. Putin views NATO’s support for Ukraine and an offensive escalation and has built a defensive narrative around the war. Once the strategic treaty goes into effect, it is very likely that North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine will increase.
More than 12,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Russia. North Korea has supplied Russia with munitions since August 2023. In turn, Russia may be assisting North Korea with its nuclear and ballistic missile development.
Want To Read More?
🇺🇸 🇯🇵 🇰🇷
US, Allies Begin Exercise Freedom Edge
On 13 November, the United States, Japan, and South Korea began “Freedom Edge 24-2,” a trilateral multidomain military exercise that focuses on the defense goals established in the Memorandum of Cooperation on the Trilateral Cooperation Framework.
“Freedom Edge 24-2” focused on integrating 5th generation aircraft into carrier operations, air and missile defense, anti-submarine warfare, maritime interdiction, and cyber warfare operations. It includes 7,000 personnel, seven naval vessels, and more than 20 aircraft.
The exercise ran from 13 to 15 November.
Why This Matters
US-led military operations in the Indo-Pacific AOR have been overshadowed by various geopolitical developments, most notably a streak of North Korean missile launches, North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine, and policy pivots in the wake of Donald Trump’s successful election.
The Freedom Edge exercises, which were inaugurated in June 2024, are quickly becoming the new standard for a US, Japanese, and Korean pact. It is likely that the Freedom Edge exercises will grow in frequency and scale, and will be used to further deter the growing aggressions by China and North Korea.
Want To Read More?
🇨🇳
China Unveils New Aircraft In Pursuit Of Air Dominance Over US
On 12 November, new Chinese fighters were unveiled at an airshow in Zhuhai. The new J-20S and J-35A are China’s dominant stealth fighters. China is now the second nation, along with the US, to operate two 5th generation stealth fighters.
Why This Matters
On 13 October, Senators Roger Wicker (R-MS) and Eric Schmitt (R-MO) wrote a piece in the Wall Street Journal detailing the need for the US Air Force to restructure itself to meet the growing threat of Chinese air superiority. Wicker offered a stark warning:
“China may be able to bracket off the Western Pacific, striking our bases with salvos of missiles and using state-of-the-art air-defense batteries to keep our aircraft at bay. Beijing could also launch swarms of sophisticated fighter jets that would far outnumber what the US could muster on short notice.”
In more specific terms, a gap in fighter technology means the US may struggle to find tactical parity with the PLA Air Force and Navy, both in terms of aircraft quantity and quality. This means the US could struggle to conduct Defensive Counter Air (DCA) and Offensive Counter Air (OCA) operations in an effort to establish air superiority.
This means vulnerability to air and missile attacks, the destruction of airfields and ports, and difficulties conducting troop transport, refueling, and intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) operations.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by Defense News
The J-35A by WSJ
The WSJ article for free by Roger Wicker
End Brief
That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.
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See you tomorrow morning,
Nick