Pacific Weekly (13-19 January 2025)

China is building barges to support amphibious invasions, the Marine Corps Commandant said moving Marines to Guam is a mistake, and PLA and Japanese officials met to discuss security concerns. Plus more...

Author

Nick
January 19, 2025

Pacific Weekly

Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 13-19 January 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

1. Chinese officials took a Buddhist relic to Thailand to promote Chinese Buddhism and CCP values. The affair was another instance of the CCP using Buddhism to enhance China’s political prestige abroad despite the party censoring faith in China.

2. PLA and Japanese officials met to discuss security concerns. The effort is a part of a previous agreement between Japanese and Chinese defense ministers. The hope is to avoid “accidents” related to military activity in the region.

3. North Korea has conducted multiple ballistic missile launches in 2025. USINDOPACOM officials condemned the launches and will work closer with Japan and South Korea on ICBM surveillance.

4. China is constructing multiple amphibious assault barges. The barges will be used to transport personnel, armored vehicles, and heavy equipment from sea to shore. This is a major improvement to the PLA’s ship-to-shore capability.

5. USMC Commandant Smith stated the withdrawal of Marines from Okinawa to Guam is a mistake. He also warned that while Force Design 2030 is on track, Congress’ ability to pass defense budgets could hinder its progress.

CCP’s United Front Continues Using Buddhism For Propaganda Efforts, Strategic Gains

Summary
On 4 December 2024, Chinese officials from the United Front Work Department and the China Buddhist Association — both CCP entities — brought a precious Buddhist relic to Thailand for a parade and veneration. The move is being criticized a political scheme rather than a spiritual affair. This is not the first time the CCP has leveraged Buddhism to enhance its prestige abroad.

Findings

  • United Front: The United Front is an organization made up of the CCP and various minor parties in China, with minor parties existing only to claim the existence of Chinese democracy and civil liberties. It is a tool of the CCP, established by Mao Zedong, to to advance Chinese strategies and interests abroad. It has seen a resurgence under Xi Jinping.

  • China Buddhist Association: This organization oversees the functioning of Buddhism in China through approved scriptures, ideological interpretations, and the approval of temples. All faith leaders must be vetted by this organization and its CCP-appointed bureaucrats.
    In August 2024, I reported on how the United Front was reforming the Chinese Buddhism through “sinicization” and the injection of “Xi Jinping Thought” into its teachings.

  • Relic: Chinese officials paraded a tooth of the Buddha in Bangkok, Thailand. The tooth is held in the Lingguang Temple in Beijing. It arrived on 4 December 2024 but will stay in Thailand until 15 February 2025.

  • Ceremony: There was an enshrinement ceremony for the relic in which Thai and Chinese officials made public statements. Interestingly, the date of the ceremony was also the 50th anniversary of establishing diplomatic relations between China and Thailand. Bitter Winter — and online magazine vying for religious liberty and human rights in China — says the CCP’s United Front used the opportunity to promote the idea that shared Buddhist traditions means the two nations are a “family.”

Why This Matters
China’s alteration of the Buddhist faith, and the United Front’s ability to manipulate it for political and cultural gain, pose risks to the ideological and civil freedom in China and the region.

Despite the Chinese Buddhist Association censoring the faith and criticizing the Dalai Lama, China has proven extremely successful in using its cultural and historical ties to Buddhism to progress Chinese strategic interests in the region.

PLA, Japanese Officials Meet To Improve Relations And Security Cooperation

Summary
On 14 January, a PLA military delegation met with Japanese officials as a part of a rejuvenated troop exchange policy. The officials met all week and discussed efforts to increase coordination and dialogue in an increasingly intense security environment.

Findings

  • Background: In November 2024, the Japanese and Chinese Defense Ministers met in Laos on the sidelines of an ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting. During that visit, both ministers agreed to expand the Japan-China relationship due to security concerns amid China’s growing military activity.

  • Meeting: Officials from the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command met with Japanese Self-Defense Force and political officials. The groups met from Monday through Friday.

Why This Matters
The CCP-affiliated Global Times reported that the bilateral meeting was a diplomatic success and that continued dialogue and coordination will help both governments avoid “accidents” related to military activity.

Back in November 2024, the Japanese Defense Minister expressed concerns regarding PLA assets violating Japanese airspaces and national waters. Recently, PLA Navy and Chinese Coast Guard vessels conducted maneuvers that simulate a blockade of Japanese territories, including the Senkakus, Miyako Island, and Okinawa.

So while China plans to use these meetings to gain political prestige and appear amicable to regional powers, the PLA is still likely to commit aggressive incursions and actions in preparation for a conflict with Taiwan and the US-led alliance (of which Japan is a core partner).

North Korea Begins 2025 With Ballistic Missile Launches

Summary
On 14 January, US Indo-Pacific Command condemned North Korea’s recent ballistic missile launches as destabilizing acts. USINDOPACOM stated it will continue working with South Korea and Japan to monitor similar threats, and that the US remains committed to the defense of its regional allies.

Findings

  • Launches: On 6 January, North Korea claimed it launched a new hypersonic intermediate-range missile. Projectiles landed in waters 155 miles from North Korea, between South Korea and Japan. This was North Korea’s second launch event in 2025.

  • 2024: Last year, North Korean missile tests saw rejuvenated efforts. Pyongyang tested solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles which are designed to strike the continental United States. There are concerns that North Korea’s growing arsenal of missile could soon overwhelm South Korea’s defenses.

  • Russia: AP News speculates that North Korea advances, reflected by frequent missile tests, are due in part to Russian support. In 2024, Russia and North Korea signed a strategic partnership agreement which includes the sharing of defense technologies and production.

Why This Matters
North Korea’s recent missile launched reflect an emboldened regime in Pyongyang.

In 2024, North Korea:

  • Signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement with Russia (which includes a mutual defense pact)

  • Received Russian missile technologies to boost its ICBM program

  • Witnessed a failed coup in South Korea

  • Averted pressure from the Biden administration

So while there are many reasons to point to the symbolic “Why?“ behind these launches, we can’t forget that they also reflect Pyongyang’s rapid improvements in ICBM technology.

North Korea is developing ICBMs capable of striking the continental United States.

China Constructing Amphibious Landing Vehicles For Taiwan Invasion

Summary
On 13 January, Fox News reported that three amphibious landing craft were observed at China’s Guangzhou Shipyard. Due to their ability to carry and deploy armored vehicles and heavy equipment, the special barges are likely to be employed alongside Type 076 Amphibious Assault Ships during future naval invasions.

Findings

  • Amphibious Vessels: There are reportedly “at least three but likely five or more barges” in Guangzhou Shipyard. They are over 390 feet long and would be employed in ship-to-shore operations in the event of a PLA invasion of Taiwan.
    The Fox News report claims the barges allow the PLA to land troops on terrain thought to inaccessible, such as rocky beaches. They are also capable of carrying armored vehicles and heavy equipment.

  • China’s Statement: In response to mainstream reporting, the CCP-affiliated Xinhua news agency stated the development of Type 076 Amphibious Assault Ships (AKA Sichuan), is “not directed at any specific entity, region or country.”
    China is likely to claim that the construction of barges are also a normal development and not due to Xi’s desire to seize Taiwan.

Why This Matters
The PLA are quickly developing a world-class fighting force. The PLA Navy is the world’s largest by tonnage, but has lacked amphibious assault capabilities.

By constructing these barges (and similar assault vessels), the PLA could soon be acquiring all the capabilities it deems necessary for an invasion of Taiwan.

Marine Corps Commandant Rejects Movement Of Marines To Guam; Force Design Experiencing Friction

Summary
United States Marine Corps Commandant Eric Smith recently stated that the departure of Marines from Okinawa to Guam is a strategic mistake. Smith also stated that while Force Design 2030 remains on track, it could face some friction due to politicking in Congress.

Findings

  • Background: In 2012, the US and Japan reached an agreement to reduce the US Marine Corps’ footprint on the island. Okinawa has a growing anti-US bases movement despite the majority of Japanese nationals stating their appreciation for the US-Japanese security relationship. As a US territory, Guam was identified as an alternative location for more forward-deployed troops.

  • USMC Commandant: General Smith recently stated that the redeployment of Marines to Guam from Okinawa “puts us going the wrong way,” a reference to Guam’s location within the Second Island Chain and nearly 1,700 miles from Taiwan.

  • Redeployment: 4,000 US Marines recently relocated to Camp Blaz on Guam from Okinawa. Guam is also undergoing various defense construction projects, including the construction of a naval facility at Apra Harbor and a new ballistic missile defense site.

  • Force Design: On 15 January, Commandant Smith told reporters that while Force Design 2030 is on track, it may face delays due to government funding. Smith alluded to his desire to stand-up more Marine Littoral Regiments (MLRs); a “low signature, highly mobile, aggregable, long-range, precision strike” force capable of waging expeditionary warfare at a moments notice.

“Whenever we have continued resolutions, we are capped at the previous year’s spending numbers, and that doesn’t get you ahead of the pacing threat.”

General Eric Smith, Commandant, United States Marine Corps

Why This Matters
With Marines farther away from Taiwan, it means getting them to the fight will be more difficult before or during conflict. Commandant Smith also warned that the departure of Marines from Okinawa may embolden China, offering them a window to strike Taiwan and Okinawa before beginning amphibious operations against Taipei.

From an Okinawan perspective, it is easy to see how a US presence on the island may attract the attention of regional adversaries during conflict. However, if 29,000 US troops and their families leave the island, so to does their money and investments into the local economy.

Okinawa is Japan’s poorest prefecture and the US government has been a reliable hiring source for locals.

Additionally, as a Japanese prefecture, Okinawa will be a target of Chinese hostilities during conflict regardless of the local governments historical ties to China or current sentiments.

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thanks for reading, thanks for subscribing, and enjoy your Sunday,

Nick