Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 14-20 October

Bottom Line Up Front:

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Chinese Exercises Surround Taiwan, Simulate Blockade

On 14 October, the PLA Navy deployed vessels and aircraft for exercises that surrounded Taiwan. The exercises simulate a blockade of Taiwan’s key ports and airways. The Chinese Defense Ministry said the exercises were a result of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s refusal to acknowledge Beijing as its rightful ruler.

The exercises come four days after Taiwan’s National Day celebrations in which Lai Ching-te said, in a speech, that Taiwan would resist Chinese aggressions. Taiwan has condemned the exercise.

China’s Global Times, a popular CCP-run media outlet, said the exercises were intended to be a “stern warning” to Taiwan.

Read more about the build up (and our Joint Sword-2024B prediction) in the 10 October brief.

Why This Matters

China’s increasing military pressure on Taiwan marks a significant deterioration in cross-strait relations. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) perceives Taiwan—and President Lai Ching-te—in a hostile light, labeling them as “separatists” who unjustly oppose China’s claimed sovereignty over the island.

From an operational standpoint, these military exercises provide the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) with crucial experience in advance of a potential engagement with Taiwan. Similar to a dress rehearsal, these drills allow the Chinese military to refine plans, assess readiness, and enhance tactical familiarity.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by NPR

• Coverage by Reuters

• Coverage by CNN

• Propaganda piece by Global Times (this is a CCP media outlet)

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Xi Jinping: China Will Work On Belt And Road Initiative With Indonesia

On 14 October, the Chinese Communist Party’s Xinhua News Agency reported that paramount leader Xi Jinping is willing to work with Indonesia on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The joint promotion will include future economic and infrastructure cooperation, including on the sustainability of the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway.

Highlighting his decade-long relationship with Indonesian President Joko Widodo, and the 70th anniversary of the Bandung Conference, Xi is looking to make Indonesia China primary partner for strategically integrating the “Global South” under Chinese economic and political influence.

Why This Matters

Indonesia’s strategic importance is not lost on Xi Jinping. Approximately one-third of all global trade flows through the Strait of Malacca in the Indonesian archipelago. The strait links the Indian Ocean to the South China Sea.

By making Indonesia one of China’s most important economic partners, Xi is setting up China’s ascendancy as the hegemonic power in the Indo-Pacific. Controlling international trade with a large Navy is core to China’s strategy of unseating the US as the dominant regional - and then global - power.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Xinhua (This is a CCP media source)

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New Marine Corps “Narco Boat” Hits Okinawa Waters

On 16 October, it was reported that the Marine Corps’ new Autonomous Low-Profile Vessel (ALPV) had deployed to Okinawa, Japan for trials. The ALPV is a 60-foot-long semi-submersible craft that is designed to avoid detection are deliver key logistical items to Marine deployed on remote islands and littorals throughout the Indo-Pacific.

The ALPV will remain deployed to Okinawa for 11 months.

Why This Matters

The Marine Corps has been undergoing Force Design 2030 – a top down effort at reshaping the Marine Corps so it can wage a 21^st century island hopping campaign against China in the event of war with Taiwan. Naturally, such expeditionary warfare requires incredible logistics planning and support.

The ALPV could be a key asset it supplying Marines with sustainment items and munitions in such a fight.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Military.com

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Taiwan Warns China Is Rapidly Expanding Strike Capabilities

On 17 October, after assessing China’s “Joint Sword-2024B” exercise, Taiwanese government officials concluded that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) are quickly becoming a combat capable force and not an exercise-based force.

Taiwan has cited nearly five years of aerial incursion by PLA aircraft as well as frequent “joint combat readiness” patrols in its waters. Taiwan is concerned that the frequency and scope of the PLA’s exercises will continue to grow. In a future scenario, China could mobilize its forces under the guise of an exercise before moving on Taiwan for real.

Why This Matters

China’s “Joint Sword-2024B” exercise was a good example of this strategy. By continually conducting patrols, incursions, and exercises against Taiwan the PLA are able to perpetually shift the tactical norms of the Cross-Strait security relationship. China has, for so long, conducted aerial incursions against Taiwan – with no way to respond without provocation, it is now expected.

China uses this strategy to its advantage by developing a more favorable “first strike” environment. It also helps the PLA test plans, doctrine, and weapons systems while giving their individual servicemembers valuable experience to use in a future fight.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Reuters

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China Announces Xi Jinping Will Attend Next BRICS Meeting In Russia

On 18, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that paramount leader Xi Jinping had accepted an invitation by Russian President Vladimir Putin to attend the next BRICS meeting in Kazan, Russia.

The meeting will convene from 22 to 24 October.

Why This Matters

BRICS is an acronym for a group of five major emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Established to enhance cooperation in various fields, BRICS aims to promote sustainable development, economic growth, and political dialogue among its members. It has expanded to challenge and, ultimately, overthrow the G7 as the world’s leading economic organization.

Originally an academic concept it has become a formal economic alliance set to rival the US-led liberal economic order.

Want To Read More?

• China’s announcement by Ministry of Foreign Affairs

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thank for reading!

See you tomorrow morning,

Nick