Pacific Weekly (18-24 November 2024)

The US is bolstering its position in the Second Island Chain, China snubs the US Secretary of Defense, and Beijing is formally supporting the military junta in Myanmar. Plus more...

Author

Nick
November 24, 2024

Pacific Weekly

Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Estimated Read Time: 5 minutes

Reporting Period: 18-24 November 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

1. Admiral Paparo warned that aid to Ukraine and Israel is leaving US forces under-equipped. Paparo, speaking at a Brookings Institute event, said he is concerned with China’s growing capabilities and frequency of large-scale exercises.

2. Tinian’s governor supports a proposed $800 million defense investment to the island. The US is looking to rebuild WWII airfields on the island to bolster its position and capabilities in the Second Island Chain.

3. The US and the Philippines signed an intelligence and technology pact. The agreement coordinates deeper bilateral support for mutual operations in the Pacific. The Philippines grow increasingly concerned about Chinese sovereignty claims and incursions in the Scarborough Shoal and Spratly Islands.

4. China’s defense minister refused to meet with Lloyd Austin. The snub signals a further deterioration in Sino-US relations despite Xi’s insistence that he wants frequent, substantive dialogue with Biden and the incoming Trump admin.

5. China formalized its support for the military junta in Myanmar. A bilateral committee is working on supplying the junta with weapons, as well as the deployment of Chinese troops and police to Myanmar. It is possible that Chinese forces could intervene on the junta’s behalf should they suffer battlefield defeats.

Missed the Thursday brief? Read it here.

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Indo-Pacific Commander Warns Military Aid Is Leaving US Under-Equipped

On 19 November, Admiral Samuel Paparo of US Indo-Pacific Command, warned that continued aid to Ukraine and Israel is leaving the US under-equipped to deal with its own security concerns. Paparo, fearing an emerging conflict between Taiwan and China, said that the US needs to draw-down aid and begin replenishing munitions.

Paparo’s urgency was highlighted by his assessment of China’s recent military developments and demonstrations. Speaking of events this past summer, Paparo stated the following:

"It was the 'jointest' operations for air, missile, maritime power that I'd seen over an entire career of being an observer."

Samuel Paparo, Admiral, USINDOPACOM

The US has given over $170 billion in financial and military aid to Ukraine. President Biden recently expanded an aid package to Ukraine, which includes a proposed loan forgiveness and the donation of the remaining Presidential Drawdown Authority.

Why This Matters

China, who has the world’s largest Navy and an extremely capable rocket force, has called an invasion of Taiwan inevitable. Its persistent upward development and growing aggressions, incursions, and exercises appear to be approaching a culmination point; Xi Jinping has envisioned 2027, the 100-year anniversary of the PLA, as the year for seizing Taiwan.

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US Plans $800 Million Investment In Tinian

On 19 November, it was reported that the governor of the North Mariana Islands, Arnold Palacios, has endorsed an $800 million plan for the Department of Defense to upgrade defense infrastructure on Tinian.

The first major project, the reconstruction of WWII runways in the north of Tinian, is on track to be completed in 2025.

Background: Tinian is a small island; one of three that make up the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands. Tinian was integral to US bombing operations on Japan during WWII, and was the starting point for the bombers that dropped nuclear devices on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Why This Matters

With China’s rapidly advancing naval, air, and missile capabilities, there are growing concerns that in the event of conflict, the majority of U.S. forces may be forced to initially retreat from the First Island Chain.

Guam hosts critical US military bases and will serve as a key hub for projecting power across the Indo-Pacific. The islands also give the US greater access to allied territories, such as Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and the Philippines.

Governor Arnold Palacios emphasized that if China attacks Taiwan—which is situated within the First Island Chain—Tinian and Guam are likely to become secondary targets.

“That’s the first chain of violence. We’re the second chain of violence. If something happens, we will be impacted.”

Arnold Palacios, Governor, North Mariana Islands

In October, the US Missile Defense Agency stated that it was scaling back a multi-billion dollar project to create an Integrated Air Defense System (IADS) on Guam, building 16 sites instead of 22.

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US, Philippines Sign Intelligence And Technology Pact

On 18 November, the United States and the Philippines signed the General Security of Military Information Agreement which secures the bilateral exchange of military intelligence and weapons technologies. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III met with Gilberto Teodoro in Manila to sign the agreement.

Austin also attended a groundbreaking ceremony for the Combined Coordination Center where future intelligence sharing and operational coordination will occur.

Why This Matters

Specific details and copies of the agreement have been restricted. However, two Filipino officials anonymously stated the agreement allows the US to provide Manila with the following:

  • Higher level intelligence

  • Advanced missile systems

  • Access to US satellite and drone surveillance data

The US shares a 1951 Mutual Defense Pact with the Philippines. As one of our oldest allies in the region, the Philippines have sought greater defense cooperation with the United States.

2024 has been a troublesome year for Manila due to increasing Chinese aggressions over sovereignty claims in the Scarborough Shoal and Spratly Islands; territories within the Filipino exclusive economic zone.

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Chinese Defense Minister Refuses Meeting With Austin

From 20-21 November, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III attended the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) defense ministers meeting where he invited China’s Minister of National Defense Dong Jun to a bilateral meeting.

Jun refused to meet with Austin, despite Xi Jinping’s insistence on frequent and open dialogue. China’s Ministry of National Defense stated the invitation was declined due to the October arms sale to Taiwan.

Why This Matters

China’s snub of Austin marks a further deterioration in Sino-US relations. During the G20 Leaders summit in Brazil, President Xi and President Biden discussed mutual economic and security concerns. While Xi provided a list of key "red lines," he reiterated an interest in open, frequent dialogue as well as cooperation with the incoming Trump administration.

However, the refusal to engage with Austin suggests that Xi may be signaling a shift in approach as Biden’s presidency nears its end. This move could indicate that Xi is preparing for a type of reset in US-China diplomacy, with a focus on more assertive policies, especially in anticipation of a hawkish stance from Trump.

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China To Establish ‘Security Company’ With Myanmar Military Junta

On 23 November, Radio Free Asia reported that a Chinese-Burmese committee was working to establish the foundations of a “joint security company” following China formalizing its support for the ruling military junta. Currently, the military junta is organizing the import and regulation of Chinese military weapons.

The junta are also organizing the deployment of Chinese soldiers and police to help protect Chinese interests in Myanmar. It is possible that Chinese forces would carry out offensive operations alongside junta force, rather than remain in private security roles.

Why This Matters

Background: In February 2021, a military junta forcefully overthrew the democratically elected Aung San Suu Kyi government. Myanmar soon fell into a civil war. China had brokered a truce in January 2024, but fighting resumed after ethic groups overran government outposts. In August, China’s PLA began carrying out patrols along the border with Myanmar. In September, the junta offered peace terms to the ethnic rebel factions. On 6 November, the Chinese government formally expressed their support for the military junta for the first time. Until then, the CCP were “playing the field” and observing developments of the complex civil war before taking an active role.

The main players:

  • Military Junta. The military junta, or Tatmadaw, deposed the democratically elected government in February 2021 and established a military government.

  • Three Brotherhood Alliance. A coalition of three armed ethnic groups (MNDAA, AA, and TNLA) seeking greater autonomy and political representation in Myanmar following the 2016 Rohingya violence. They are allied to the National Unity Government and previously received support from China.

  • National Unity Government. Formed in 2021 by lawmakers, ethnic warlords, and democratic activists, the NUG is currently Myanmar’s most foreign-recognized authority. It opposes the military junta.

The anti-junta groups have experienced infighting and logistic issues. China, feeling the Tatmadaw no longer reflects Beijing’s interests, is committed to keeping the junta in power and establishing legitimacy to their proposed 2025 elections.

China’s sudden shift in support is likely a result of the NUG’s alignment to the US. It is possible that the US will increase its supply of materiel to the NUG and Tatmadaw now that China’s interests are solidified and public.

China is very likely to intervene with military force in the event of junta battlefield failures. A possible long-term strategic explanation for China’s new position is that a China-friendly government in Myanmar could give Beijing unfettered access to the Indian Ocean.

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End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

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See you tomorrow morning!

Nick