Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 23 - 29 December 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Japan And China Seek Improved Relations, Officials Meet in Beijing

Summary
On 25 December, Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. The trio discussed territorial disputes, seafood trade, and Japan’s discharge of waters from the Fukushima nuclear power plant. Wang will visit Japan in 2025 to discuss economic cooperation with Japan. Iwaya proposed a Japan-China security dialogue which Wang agreed to.

Findings

• Trade: Japan’s seafood industry — a major earner for the island nation — took a hit in 2023 when China banned Japanese seafood exports following the discharge of treated water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific.

• Security Dialogue: Iwaya proposed establishing a security dialogue with his counterpart in Beijing. If established, open communication on security concerns and military actions could prevent escalations and improve the likelihood of reaching diplomatic agreements regarding security.

• Strategic Posture: Despite a desire to communicate openly on security affairs, Japan is aligned with the US-led alliance in the Pacific. Japan rejects China’s incursions into airspaces and territorial waters that belong to other sovereign nations, such as Taiwan or the Philippines. Japan also rejects the use of force to resolve strategic interests before diplomacy, hence Tokyo’s defensive position in the US-led alliance. Japan is hosts more than 50,000 US servicemembers across 15 installations, with the bulk of them deployed to Okinawa.

• Concerns: Despite a productive and “candid” meeting, Iwaya expressed Japan’s concerns over China’s growing ambitions in the region. Japan remains concerned about China’s incursions into contested territories, such as the Senkaku and Spratly Islands — regions that Beijing claims from Japan and the Philippines, respectively. Further military incursions by Beijing could collapse the progress made by Iwaya and Wang.

Why This Matters
The meeting highlights Japan’s delicate role as both a diplomatic and economic bridge between Chinese and American interests in the Pacific, complicated by a fragile and volatile security environment.

By addressing critical issues such as territorial disputes, seafood trade, and nuclear water discharge, Japan seeks to reduce tensions while asserting its national interests. It is uncertain if the “candid” meeting will fall on deaf ears in Beijing — China is likely to recognize Japan’s strategic interests and still direct the PLA to carry out a policy of incursions. The likelihood of this grows if Xi and CCP elites feel slighted by Tokyo’s policies, positions, and alignments.

Similarly, while the proposed security dialogue signals a potential breakthrough in fostering bilateral military communication aimed at preventing conflicts and stabilizing the region, there is no indication that China will adhere to Japanese interests and concerns. It is more likely that China will consider Japan’s security interests and continue its gray zone harassments against Taiwan, the Philippines, and Japan — a tactic of injecting ebbs and flows through good will and promises while carrying out unchecked aggressions.

Sources: The Straits Times, ABC News, AP News

China Unveils New Aircraft In Chengdu, Possibly 6th Generation Fighter

Summary
On 26 December — Mao Zedong’s birthday — the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) flew an unidentified aircraft at Chengdu Aircraft Corporation’s headquarters in Chengdu, China. Observers analyzing photos and videos are conflicted as to what the aircraft is. Some suggest it is the J/H-XX — a new bomber/strike fighter — while mainstream media push the idea that it is the J-36 — the world’s first publicly seen 6th generation fighter jet.

Findings

• J/H-XX: Observations about dual air intakes, engines, size, and landing gear suggest the aircraft is heavy, pointing the the likelihood of it being a bomber.

• J-36: Evidence that the aircraft is China’s 6th generation fighter come from details released at the Zhuhai Airshow in November 2022. A 6th generation fighter model was revealed there, and despite having a similar shape, the aircraft that was seen flying in Chengdu reportedly has an extra air intake and a different number of engines.

• US Air Force: Breaking Defense reported that the US Air Force has endorsed the research and development of manned, next-generation fighters rather than unmanned, autonomous platforms. Some reports suggest that the F-35 program, the latest 5th generation fighter project, will total $2 trillion.

Why This Matters
The successful flight of China’s 6th-generation fighter jet signals a significant leap in Beijing’s military development, raising concerns for regional security and the global balance of power. This achievement suggests that China may be further ahead in its defense programs than previously assumed, challenging perceptions of its reliance on copying foreign technology.

As air superiority will be critical in conflicts like a potential Taiwan scenario, China’s progress underscores the accelerating pace of technological advancements in air combat. For the United States, which is advancing its own Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program, this development serves as a catalyst to fast-track innovations in AI, stealth, and hypersonic weapons to maintain strategic advantage in future air warfare.

Note: Interestingly, some observers pointed out that China’s investment into traditional, manned aircraft — like the United States — suggests that drone swarms are a mere trend in warfare and not yet the future standard.

Sources: The Aviationist, Army Recognition, Breaking Defense

Taiwanese Presidential Office Conducted First-Ever Tabletop Wargame

Summary
On 26 December, the Taiwanese president’s office conducted a tabletop exercise to simulate military conflict with China. The exercise was designed to stress-test the Taiwanese government’s emergency responses to various escalations by China.

Findings

• Exercise: The exercise reportedly lasted 3 hours and involved 19 groups from Taiwan’s national-level ministries, local governments, and civil groups. President Lai specifically mentioned that the exercise verified the government’s “level of preparedness” and its ability to suddenly respond to “extreme scenarios.”

• Necessity: In early December, China conducted the its largest maritime maneuvers in decades. In 2024, China has conducted two “Joint Sword-2024” exercises, both of which surrounded Taiwan. The PLA Navy and Air Force have also continued a years-long policy of “gray zone” harassments by deploying aircraft and warships into Taiwanese territory.

• Taiwanese Defense Spending: On 25 December, Taiwan’s Defense Ministry warned that it may have to cut its 2025 defense budget due to the DPP party passing legislation to reduce spending. The decision inspired thousands of Taiwanese citizens to protest at parliament. The cuts reduce the defense budget plan by 28%, or nearly $2.45 billion.

Why This Matters
Governments and militaries regularly conduct exercises to enhance their proficiency, test capabilities, and establish general preparedness. The timing of Taiwan’s tabletop exercise suggests a few things:

• Increasing concern that PLA incursions, patrols, and exercises will escalate in both size and frequency

• Increasing concern that a conflict with China is becoming more likely

• Despite the rising likelihood of conflict, internal intelligence and analysis may indicate that Taiwan remains unprepared

Sources: Taipei Times, The Defense Post, CNN, VOA News

China Unveils New Amphibious Warship

Summary
On 27 December, the PLA Navy unveiled the Type 076 amphibious assault ship at a Shanghai shipyard. The vessel is a significant asset for the PLA Navy due to its ability to launch aircraft with an electromagnetic catapult system. A CSIS report states the ship can also support helicopters and amphibious landing craft — two critical components to assault support operations.

Findings

• Capabilities: The Type 076 is the world’s largest amphibious assault ship and is a very capable multifunctional platform. The flight deck is 260 meters by 52 meters (or nearly three football fields). Its electromagnetic launcher allows for heavier aircraft to be launched, meaning more fuel and weapons. Flight elevators are capable of launching manned and unmanned aircraft at faster speeds. A floodable well deck allows for the launch of amphibious vehicles capable of ship-to-shore operations.

• Output: The Sichuan was constructed in a new dry dock (constructed in September 2023) in Shanghai. CSIS assesses that one Type 076 is not enough to bring the PLA Navy into parity with the US Navy, but it does improve China’s ability to conduct amphibious operations — such as an invasion of Taiwan. China currently has the world’s highest naval output, and is very likely to continue constructing the new amphibious assault vessels.

Why This Matters
Amphibious assaults rank among the most complex and challenging military operations to execute successfully. A key reason China has not yet seized Taiwan is almost certainly the PLA's lack of a decisive capability to carry out large-scale ship-to-shore operations. The Type 076 represents a significant advancement in addressing that gap.

Effective amphibious operations require the destruction, suppression, or neutralization of integrated enemy defense systems. This include aircraft, air defense launchers, radars, artillery batteries, command and control centers, etc.

The Type 076 enhances China’s ability to execute these operations by deploying fully-equipped aircraft capable of both defensive counter-air missions (air-to-air combat) and offensive counter-air missions (including ground strikes). Once manned and unmanned aircraft launched from the Sichuan make “conditions set,” the ship also facilitates the follow-up assaults by marine forces.

Sources: CNN, Fox News, CSIS

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Enjoy the remainder of your Sunday.

See you tomorrow,

Nick