Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Estimated Read Time: 5 minutes

Reporting Period: 25 November - 1 December 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

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Xi Jinping Continues Purge Policy

On 27 November, Financial Times reported that the Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun has been placed under investigation as part of further anti-corruption investigations within the CCP and PLA. This is the third time under Xi an acting or former defense minister has been investigated and purged from his position.

Some interesting considerations about Dong Jun:

• He was not promoted to the six-member CMC at this year’s CCP Plenum (normally the Defense Minister would have one of these seats)

• He recently refused to meet with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III

• He organized the first US-Chinese theater-level commander meeting in September

On 28 November, CNN reported that Admiral Miao Hua, a powerful figure in the Central Military Commission (CMC), was placed under investigation for corruption charges.

China’s government announced that today, Qiushi will publish an article by Xi Jinping on upholding fundamental Chinese and Marxist principles.

Background: When Xi Jinping took power in 2012, he began his tenure with a series of political and military purges to control the ideological makeup of the CCP. This was known as the “Tigers and Flies” policy; “Tigers” being formidable dissidents and “Flies” being the self-serving, corrupt bureaucrats. Since July 2023, Xi has purged more than a dozen senior generals or industry elites from the CCP. In June 2024, Xi purged former defense ministers Li Shengfu and Wei Fenghe from the CCP and public life.

Why This Matters

In July 2024, Xi Jinping reaffirmed to the Chinese Communist Party that achieving China’s key strategic goals would require a PLA that is strong, loyal, and open to Xi-ist reform and leadership. A day later, on 1 August, that guidance was published in a Qiushi article.

When Xi addressed Chinese leaders in July, he committed the PLA to frequent, large-scale exercises in preparation for an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, and to develop tactical and operational competency as the force approaches parity with the US military. Note that these external strategic goals have been used by Xi to rally the CCP and distract dissidents from domestic Chinese issues, such as a banking crisis, low wages, civil rights violations, and social repression. In this regard, purges may also be reflective of Xi purging party dissidents, not just incompetents.

Political and military purges are almost certain to continue under Xi’s rule, which is slated to be a lifelong tenure as paramount leader.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by CNN

• Coverage by Business Standard

• Coverage by US News

• Xi to publish article by Xinhua

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Taiwan Conducts Air Defense Drills Fearing Chinese Exercises

On 27 November, Taiwanese security officials stated that China may launch large-scale military drills around Taiwan in response to President Lai’s scheduled visits to Pacific island nations. On 28 November, Taiwan’s air defense forces conducted a drill to test tactical-level response times and engagement procedures in preparation for a Chinese exercise.

Background: Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te is currently making multiple diplomatic visits across the Pacific this weekend. On Saturday, he visited the US Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau. Lai may also scheduled to visit Hawaii and Guam. Historically, Xi Jinping has ordered large-scale military exercises around Taiwan in response to diplomatic missions Beijing deems as unsavory. Most notable was Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan or Lai Ching-te’s inauguration.

Why This Matters

Future large-scale exercises around Taiwan would be reflective of Xi’s recent PLA employment precedent. In July 2024, Xi stated the PLA would conduct exercises more frequently and at larger scale. Xi also stated that the PLA’s goal should be to become a “world class” military by 2027 so that it can seize Taiwan in celebration of the PLA 100-year anniversary.

Additionally, the aggressive use of the PLA for exercises reflects Xi’s policy against Taiwan under the Lai presidency. The “Joint Sword-2024A” exercise formalized Xi’s new outlook diplomatic outlook on Taiwan; that the government and populace who oppose a “One China” policy are “separatists.”

PLA exercises and incursions that surround or violate Taiwanese waters and airspace are very likely to continue under Xi’s leadership, and are likely to increase in scope and frequency as 2027 draws nearer.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by VOA

• Lai’s scheduled visits by Reuters

• The previous Chinese exercise by The Intel Brief

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US Marines Receive First NMESIS Missiles For Anti-Ship Operations

On 26 November, the 3d Marine Littoral Regiment received its first Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS). NMESIS is a ground-based anti-ship missile launcher designed to enhance American forces’ sea-denial capability.

Capabilities snapshot:

• Autonomous JLTV chassis

• Two Naval Strike Missile launchers

• 115 mile range

Why This Matters

The capabilities of NMESIS will be leveraged by employing the system through the Maritime Dynamic Targeting Process, a tactical concept in which fires systems can rapidly identify, assess, and engage time-sensitive targets due to real-time targeting coordination and persistent intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) updates.

The expeditionary nature of NMESIS also gives it a valuable fire-and-move ability, a critical feature for rapid deployment and survivability in austere environments.

Want To Read More?

• Announcement by US Marines

• Coverage by Interesting Engineering

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US Approves New Arms Sale To Taiwan

On 29 November, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced the approval of a $385 million arms sale to Taiwan. The sale is for spare parts for fighters, radar systems, and communications equipment.

Taiwan received its first of sixty-six F-16 Block 70 fighters from the US in September. On 6 November, Taiwan received the first 11 of 29 units of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) from the United States.

Taiwan’s defense ministry expressed gratitude for the arms sale and continued support on security from Washington. The ministry said it was the 18th time President Biden has announced arms sales to Taiwan.

The US is Taiwan’s greatest defense partner and has only increased its support for Taiwan as China’s aggressions and incursions have increased.

The DCSA’s “Strategic Plan 2025” document identifies its mission:

The DCSA document do not mention any strategic partners or adversaries by name.

Why This Matters

China has consistently denounced US arms sales to Taiwan and views them as direct challenges to Chinese sovereignty.

Additionally, ongoing visits to US territories by Taiwanese President Lai were condemned by China. Taiwan’s Ministry of Defense warned that the visits could result in increased PLA activity around Taiwan.

These visits, in addition to US arms sales, are likely to influence China’s willingness to conduct reactionary PLA exercises and incursions into Taiwanese airspace and territorial waters.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by CNA

• HIMARS in Taiwan by The Defense Post

• F-16 Block 70 in Taiwan by Taipei Times

• Strategic plan by DCSA

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

See you tomorrow @ 0700 ET.

Nick