Pacific Weekly (26 August - 1 September)

Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is your Pacific Weekly, formerly known as the Sunday SITREP. This is your best source for staying abreast of activity in the Indo-Pacific region.

You can read this brief in about 5 minutes.

Reporting Period: 26 August - 1 September

Bottom Line Up Front:

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan Concludes China Visit With Xi Jinping Meeting

On 29 August, before his trip to Beijing ended, Jake Sullivan met with Chinese paramount leader Xi Jinping. During his trip to Beijing, Sullivan also met with Wang Yi, China’s chief foreign policy official.

In meetings with Yi and Xi, Sullivan discussed some key issues that have stressed the Sino-American relationship:

• China’s role in the fentanyl crisis

• The Taiwan issue

• Tensions in the South China Sea

• China’s support for Russia

• The possibility of a meeting between Xi and Biden

On Thursday, Sullivan had his unexpected visit with Xi. Sullivan expressed Biden’s commitment to diplomacy with China, and Xi voiced a desire for “solidarity and coordination.”

News outlets report that Sullivan has, at the least, secured a phone call between Xi and Biden before his term ends.

Why This Matters

The United States and China remain at odds regarding key strategic topics, specifically the Taiwan scenario, Chinese claims on the South China Sea, and China’s support for Russia.

In the past year, relations have greatly deteriorated to a point in which little, if any, diplomacy was occurring. The concern is that without an open diplomatic line, minor incidents at certain flashpoints (above) might spark unwanted conflict or hostilities.

Comment: On 30 August, Jake Sullivan told the press that the United States will still continue to provide Taiwan with weapons despite China’s request to cease its “collusion” with the island nation. On the 29th, John Moolenar (Chairman of the House Select Committee on the CCP) and his colleagues visited officials in Tokyo to align policy against China’s growing economic, military, and political aggression.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Reuters

• Coverage by CNN

• Expected call between Biden and Xi by CNBC

• Arms sales by Focus Taiwan

• Moolenar’s visit to Tokyo by the Select Committee

No US Aircraft Carriers In The Pacific

Ongoing redeployments and scheduled maintenance periods have left the United States Navy with zero aircraft carriers in the Pacific. The USS Theodore Roosevelt and USS Abraham Lincoln are deployed in the 5th Fleet’s area of operations due to rising tensions in the Middle East.

Other carriers (United States Ships Carl Vinson, Ronald Reagan, George Washington, and Nimitz) are currently undergoing maintenance or scheduled port visits. The current situation means no carrier will be in the Pacific for at least three weeks.

Why This Matters

Maintenance, port visits, and redeployments leave the 7th Fleet vulnerable in the Pacific. Here are some adversary actions so far this year:

• Russia and China have conducted multiple joint naval patrols

• China has persisted with naval and aerial incursions against Taiwan

• China has continued naval provocations against the Philippines in the Second Thomas Shoal

• China’s Shandong Carriers Strike Group has conducted two operations around the Miyako Strait this year

With no US carrier in the region to deter adversaries, actions like these are likely to increase. The USS George Washington is scheduled to depart the US by the end of September and join the 7th Fleet in Yokosuka, Japan.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Naval News

China To Patrol Border With Myanmar Amid Ongoing Violence

On 26 August, the PLA announced it would conduct patrols along its western border with Myanmar due to renewed violence.

Background: In February 2021, a Myanmar military junta overthrew the elected Aung San Suu Kyi government in a coup. Myanmar soon fell into an internal conflict. China had brokered a truce in January 2024, but fighting has erupted again after ethic groups overran government outposts.

Why This Matters

China will patrol towns close to Myanmar due to fears that militants could spill over into China. The PLA said they will conduct ground patrols and air surveillance flights around towns Ruili and Zhenkang.

The PLA are eager to get training value out of the patrols, saying it will test PLA soldiers’ abilities in maneuver, blocking, coordinated attacks, and maintaining a prolonged security posture.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said China is committed to restoring peace and stability in Myanmar but did not mention how China (or the PLA) might respond to the conflict.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Al Jazeera

• Coverage by US News

China Violated Japan’s Airspace For First Time, Scrambles Jets

On 26 August, Japan said that a Chinese surveillance aircraft entered Japanese airspace for the first time, marking a new change in precedent between China and Japan.

Japan’s Defense Ministry stated a Chinese Y-9 surveillance aircraft was flying near Danjo Island before it entered Japan’s airspace. The Y-9 flew in Japanese airspace for two minutes before departing.

Japan scrambled jets to interdict the Y-9 but no confrontation occurred. In the previous fiscal year, Japan recorded 479 Chinese approaches on its territory that resulted in zero incursions.

Why This Matters

The incident is a change in precedent on a micro level, something China depends on. China’s Cán shí strategy involves small tactical decisions performed piecemeal over time that, if they were done all at once, would be be egregious acts of aggression and likely spark conflict.

Put more simply, it is aimed at altering tactical norms for greater strategic posturing over time. In this instance, we may be entering a new period in which China regularly violates Japanese airspace.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by CNN

• Coverage by CBS News

Sabina Shoal Seen As New ‘Flashpoint’ In China-Philippines Tensions

On 25 August a Chinese Coast Guard vessels collided with a Philippine Coast Guard vessel near the Sabina Shoal. The Sabina Shoal is a small atoll in the South China sea that sits 86 miles from the Philippines’ western coast (well within its economic exclusion zone).

The collision, a commonly used tactic by the Chinese, signifies a breakdown in relations. In July, China and the Philippines had made a deal to help manage transit and resupply missions in contested regions like these.

The July deal came after a violent confrontation at the Second Thomas Shoal in June. At that time, Chinese sailors brandished weapons and damaged Filipino vessels. Multiple Filipino’s were injured.

Why This Matters

China claims all of the South China Sea as its own under its “Nine-Dash Line” concept. The July 2016 South China Sea Arbitration determined that China’s claims were unlawful and unsupported by the 1982 United Nations Convention of Law of the Sea.

Despite China’s desire to have a bigger role in international bodies, and to manipulate international law in its favor, it has not obeyed the 2016 ruling. The UN has no enforcement mechanism.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by CNN

• The previous mediation, coverage by CNN

• The 2016 South China Sea Arbitration

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly. Thank you for taking the time to read it, I hope you learned something.

Here is your reminder for upcoming briefs:

• Monday morning brief @ 0630 ET

• Thursday morning brief @ 0630 ET

If you have any questions, comments, or concerns regarding this newsletter or foreign policy topics please feel free to reach out any time.

See you tomorrow,

Nick