Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 28 October - 3 November 2024

Bottom Line Up Front:

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North Korea Launches ICBM, Longest Flight Yet

On 31 October, North Korea launched an Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), the first in nearly a year. North Korea said it was a new Hwasong-19 ICBM.

Japan’s Defense Minister stated the ICBM flew 4,350 miles in 86 minutes before crashing into the ocean.

On 30 October, the US and South Korea announced deeper strategic collaboration through the “US-ROK Alliance” framework, indicating a cause for North Korea’s sudden ICBM launch.

Why This Matters

With the ICBM traveling further and faster than previous models, US, South Korean, and Japanese officials believe North Korea is quickly progressing in its ballistic missile research and development. This concern is heightened by the fact that North Korea has sent troops to Russia in exchange for assistance with military research and development.

However, South Korea’s assessment of the ICBM’s launch angle suggest the projectile has trouble re-entering Earth’s atmosphere. South Korea believes a future test, at a shallower launch angle, could soon follow.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by NPR

• Coverage by Fox News

• Deeper cooperation between US and ROK by the Department of Defense

• Statement on the ICBM by USINDOPACOM

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China Expands Nuclear-Capable Arsenal

A recent report by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) concluded that China’s ballistic missile arsenal is expanding quicker than thought. The report claims that by 2030, China will have more than 1,000 operational warheads capable of striking the continental United States or targets across the Indo-Pacific.

Of primary concern is the DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) due to its ability to carry both conventional and nuclear warheads.

Why This Matters

China is rapidly expanding its ballistic missile arsenal due to repeated pressure from Xi Jinping to grow the PLA Rocket Force and expand its strike capability. This gives China some distinct strategic advantages:

• Developing PLA warfighting capabilities necessary to coerce or seize Taiwan

• Increase deterrence factors against the United States

This growing arsenal, which includes weapons capable of reaching the continental US, poses a significant strategic concern for Washington due to the robust stand-off and first strike capabilities it provides China.

Additionally, the DIA report also explains how Russia, North Korea, and Iran are also developing their missile arsenals.

Currently, the US has two domestic missile defense sites, located in California and Alaska. In October, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) proposed a third site at Fort Drum; however, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III opposed this idea, favoring the development of a "Next Generation Interceptor."

Want To Read More?

• Nuclear Challenges 2024 by the DIA

• Coverage by Washington Times

• The DF-26 by CSIS

• Air defense debate by North Country Public Radio

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PLA Navy Conducts Dual-Carrier Operations

On 31 October, two of China’s three operational aircraft carriers, the CNS Liaoning and CNS Shandong, conducted the PLA Navy’s first-ever dual carrier patrol.

The carriers were escorted by J-15 fighters and 11 PLA Navy surface vessels.

The carrier formation was preceded by China’s promise that it would respond to the US agreeing to a $2 billion arms sale to Taiwan this month.

Why This Matters

A PLA spokesperson said the formation was a part of China’s annual training plan which seeks to enhance the PLA Navy’s operational capabilities.

Carrier operations are extremely complex at the tactical and operational levels. Here is what China has gained, or proved, through these drill:

• Soft Power. China has already surrounded Taiwan with two exercises this year. After the US said it would sell $2 billion in air defense systems to Taiwan, China’s patrols - an operational “first” - are a symbolic win and suggest the PLA’s might is only ever increasing.

• Tactical Proficiency. The most obvious advantage to these patrols is the tactical gains. They provide PLA Navy personnel good training opportunities as well as improve the integration of multiple pieces into a greater whole.

• Readiness. The patrols also depict a high level of readiness across the PLA Navy. The two carriers were recently docked together, with speculation that they were under minor maintenance and a “hull swap.” The quick coordination and execution indicate a competent and motivated fighting force.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by USNI News

• Announcement by China Military

• China vows response to US arms sale by DW

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US Navy To Put PATRIOT On Ships, China Spins Story

Recently, the US Navy stated it may arm some vessels with Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) Missile Segment Enhancement interceptors as a means of countering China’s growing hypersonic missile arsenal.

On 27 October, the CCP-controlled Global Times responded to the announcement. Clearly threatened by the possibility, the Global Times characterized the US Navy’s plan as “an excuse to pursue absolute military superiority” over its rivals.

In May 2024, the US Navy successfully tested the PAC-3 from a ship-borne vertical launcher. The US Navy’s primary air defense vessels system is the Aegis combat system which fires the Standard Missile-3.

Why This Matters

The Global Times has attempted to portray China’s military growth as unthreatening, and that American reactions are an overreach aimed at threatening adversaries.

While building a victimized narrative, China has touted the development of their DF-26 “Guam Killer” missile which is capable of carrying conventional and nuclear warheads.

Want To Read More?

• Propaganda piece by the Global Times (this is a CCP media outlet)

• PAC-3 test from ship by The Warzone

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China Modifies Meta AI Model For Military Use

On 1 November, Reuters reported that academic papers from Chinese institutions revealed the development of “ChatBIT,” a Chinese AI model developed off of Meta’s public “Llama” model.

Multiple researchers, some from the PLA’s Academy of Military Science, detailed how they incorporated military-focused parameters as a means of gathering open-source intelligence (OSINT) data to improve military decision-making.

Why This Matters

The researchers claimed that ChatBIT outperformed other AI models while responding to military oriented tasks. The researchers also claimed the platform was 90% as effective as the OpenAI’s popular ChatGPT-4.

While Meta has promoted the free-use of Llama, it has terms that restrict the use of the model for “military, warfare, nuclear” and “espionage” roles.

China’s use of Llama highlights the dangers of AI being used and developed by unsavory actors. With no means of enforcing terms, companies like Meta inadvertently empower malicious actors in their pursuits of AI development.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Reuters

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

I hope this coverage was unique and informative for you:

See you tomorrow morning.

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday,

Nick