Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 3-9 February 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

U.S. Navy Leads New Maritime Cooperative Activity

Summary
On 5 February, the United States Navy led a multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity. Forces from the U.S., Australia, Japan, and the Philippines took part in the maneuvers.

Findings

• Maritime Cooperative Activity: On 5 February U.S. Pacific Command announced it had conducted a multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity (MCA) in Philippine waters. Naval and air forces from the U.S., Australia, Japan, and the Philippines participated.
  An MCA is intended to be a show of force, unity, and a training opportunity. In this instance, it was conducted in response to China’s increased incursions into Philippine waters.

• Previous MCAs: On 17 February, the U.S. and Philippine navies conducted an MCA in the South China Sea. The most recent large-scale MCA, which included a five-nation fleet, took place on 30 September.

• Context: First and foremost, the MCA is a show of force intended to display America’s might, resolve, and multinational backing as President Trump looks to establish policy objectives in the Pacific. Second, it was intended to back up our Philippine allies as China commits to incursions and aggressions against Filipino sailors. Last week, President Marcos told China he would remove U.S. Typhon missiles from the Philippines if China would cease its aggressive incursion policy.

Why This Matters
MCAs are an effective tool for responding to China’s aggressions in the region. China frequently employs the PLA Navy, Chinese Coast Guard, and maritime militia to perpetrate incursions, actions, and violations below the threshold of conflict.

The timing of the MCA also seems intentional, as it indirectly backs the Philippines’ commitment to its sovereignty. Due to Trump taking office and Hegseth being confirmed as SecDef, the MCA also seems like a statement directed at China.

Sources: USINDOPACOM, The Intel Brief, The Intel Brief, USINDOPACOM

Taiwan To Help Companies Relocate To U.S.

Summary
On 3 February, Taiwan’s Economy Ministry announced its intention to assist the relocation of Taiwanese companies to the United States following President Trump’s tariff announcements.

Findings

• Previous Efforts: In 2023, Taiwan moved portions of its semiconductor industry (then 20% of its GDP) to Arizona. In 2024, more than 2,000 Taiwanese workers moved to Arizona to continue manufacturing chips. It is possible that more of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry could relocate to the United States soon.

• Tariffs: President Trump’s previous tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico — despite negotiations and pauses — urged Taiwanese companies to consider relocating to the United States. Trump hinted at implementing tariffs on microchips.

• Government Support: Taiwan’s economy ministry said it will assist companies by providing them guidance on investment locations, local laws, reestablishing supply chains, and finding local business partners. The Industrial Technology Research Institute in North America will also establish research and development and manufacturing relationships with U.S. firms.

Why This Matters
In the short term, the decision may impact the U.S.-Taiwanese diplomatic relationship and public support for that relationship. The decision also led to a decline in some Taiwanese stocks, such as Foxconn, Quanta, and Inventec — all of which reportedly have factories in Mexico.

In the long term, the relocation of Taiwanese companies — especially ones related to chips — could be a massive strategic gain for both Taipei and Washington. For Taiwan, the looming threat of a Chinese invasion means its companies can survive while being closer to its target market. For the U.S., it means we can secure a reliable, quality-controlled source of next-generation microchips.

Sources: CNA, Reuters

U.S. Lawmakers Introduce Legislation To Formally Recognize Taiwan, Abandon “One China” Policy

Summary
During the first session of the 119th Congress, a group of Congressmen introduced legislation to reestablish diplomatic relations with Taiwan and abandon support for the “One China” Policy.

Findings

• Background: The United States formally recognized Taiwanese sovereignty from 1949 to 1979 when President Carter abruptly abandoned the position in favor of normalized relations with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Beijing. In 1971, Taiwan was removed from the United Nations when the General Assembly passed Resolution 2758, recognizing the People’s Republic of China as the legitimate representative of China.
  The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act saw the continued, yet informal, relations between Washington and Taipei.

• Concurrent Resolution: The legislation, a concurrent resolution, would make some significant changes to America’s foreign policy position on Taiwan, China, and the Indo-Pacific region. Here is what it proposes:

  • Resume normal diplomatic relations with Taiwan

  • Negotiate a bilateral free trade agreement

  • Support Taiwan’s membership in international organizations (i.e. the UN)

The resolution already has the support of a core group of 24 House Republicans.

Why This Matters
The resolution is very likely to draw criticism from Xi Jinping and China. It is likely that the resolution will significantly impact President Trump’s upcoming dialogue with Xi Jinping and any conversation regarding the security and economic environment in the region. Currently, Washington and Beijing are on the verge of a trade war due to tit-for-tat tariff implementations.

I would wager that if the resolution passes, and the U.S. formally recognizes Taiwan’s sovereignty over itself, Beijing would restrict or cut off formal diplomatic relations with the United States. This would also likely accelerate any plans Beijing has for seizing Taiwan by force.

I think what you will see soon — particularly in Chinese state media — is a condemnation of the resolution and an attack on the narrative that American legislators have used to justify the legislation proposal. For example, the resolution cites Taiwan’s stable democratic system, growing civil rights, control of its territory and outlying islands, and distinct diplomatic, economic, and cultural ties with the United States.

Sources: U.S. House, U.S. House, Fox News, American Institute in Taiwan

President Trump Meets With Japanese Prime Minister, Discuss Investments And Trade

Summary
On 7 February, President Trump hosted Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba. The pair held a joint press conference where they discussed mutual trade, security concerns, and opinions each hold for the other. The meeting is being seen as a display of a strong U.S.-Japanese partnership.

Findings

• Trade Deficit and Tariffs: Trump stated he wishes to reduce the $68 billion trade deficit with Japan, but that both countries want a mutually beneficial and “fair” trade deal. Trump, while speaking next to Prime Minister Ishiba, did not take the threat of tariffs off the table. Both parties remain optimistic about reaching a fair deal.

• U.S. Steel Deal: During Biden’s presidency, he blocked Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel. Trump also opposed the deal. Now, Ishiba says Nippon Steel will invest in U.S. Steel, abandoning its $14 billion acquisition attempt.

• North Korea: Trump and Ishiba both share security concerns in China and North Korea. Japan is growing increasingly concerned about North Korea’s missile development. Trump said he wants to restore relations with North Korea and that previous diplomacy ensured peace.

• Praise for Trump: Ishiba commended Trump for his “undaunted presence” following the first assassination attempt on him. Ishiba said many in Japan are “awaiting your [Trump’s] comeback” and that he found Trump to be “very sincere.”

Why This Matters
The press conference between Trump and Ishiba indicates a strong U.S.-Japanese relationship at the beginning of Trump’s term. Japan has been the top foreign direct investor in the U.S. for the last five years and Ishiba’s statements suggest that investment will continue to grow.

While the conversation seemed economic-based, the two leaders have a vision of security in the Indo-Pacific.

Based on social media research, I found that some in Japan are quick to slander the meeting between Trump and Ishiba due to Trump quickly departing the stage, the U.S. blocking the steel deal, and Trump refusing to abandon the option of implementing tariffs.

However, I think this is an overreach and Trump will be able to rely on Japan as a solid partner during his term.

Sources: AP News, NPR

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thank you for reading!

Enjoy your Sunday,

Nick