Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

This one is shorter, but full of various details and interconnected updates.

Reporting Period: 17-23 February 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

U.S., Japanese Navies Conducted Combined Operations In The Sulu Sea

Summary
On 18 February, the U.S. Navy confirmed that from 9-10 February it conducted combined operations with Japanese counterparts in the Sulu Sea.

Findings

• Combined Operations: The combined operations were conducted to reaffirm the U.S.-Japanese alliance as well as develop tactical competencies.

• Participants: The U.S. Navy confirmed that the USS Dewey (DDG 105) and Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force JS Asahi (DD 119) participated in the drills.

• Sulu Sea: The patrols took place in the Sulu Sea, west of the Philippine island of Mindanao. The patrols were relatively far from Japanese territorial waters.

Why This Matters
The patrols occurred alongside President Trump’s meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba. Following a private meeting, the pair made public statements before answering a Q&A.

In his address, Ishiba praised President Trump as a character of strength and committed to greater integration with the U.S. economy and security apparatus.

This patrol is a small microcosm of that U.S.-Japanese relationship. Also, consider its distance from Japan. Tokyo and Washington are also making a statement that the U.S.-led alliance will oppose Chinese aggression anywhere in the Indo-Pacific region, and not just on disjointed bilateral levels.

Sources: U.S. Pacific Fleet

U.S., Taiwan Negotiating New Arms Deal

Summary
Anonymous Taiwanese officials reported to Reuters that Taipei and Washington were negotiating a new arms deal. The deal allegedly includes cruise missiles and HIMARS systems.

Findings

• Negotiations: Radio Free Asia reports that anonymous Taiwanese sources told Reuters that Taipei and Washington were negotiating an arms deal valued between $7 to $10 billion.

• Weapons: Taiwan is trying to acquire more U.S.-made coastal defense cruise missiles and High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).

• Backlogs: Citing the Cato Institute, Radio Free Asia reports that U.S. arms to Taiwan are backlogged with more than $21 billion worth of armored vehicles and aircraft awaiting delivery (likely due to U.S. military aid being prioritized for Ukraine under the Biden administration).

Why This Matters
The rumored arms negotiation suggests the Trump administration will take a more aggressive and transparent stance on Taiwanese sovereignty. It also suggests that the U.S. may be preparing to shift its focus — and assets — to the Pacific theater instead of Europe.

This also raises questions of how Taiwan will pay for it, or how the funding will affect the Taiwanese military to operate and maintain current systems. The Taiwanese legislature recently voted to enact budget cuts, but President Lai proposed a special budget for defense.

The negotiations also suggest Taiwan is attempting to increase its deterrence and stand-off strike capability as China invests heavily in assault support and long-range fires.

Sources: Radio Free Asia

China Launches Series Of Naval Exercises, Patrols

Summary
This week, China’s naval forces have conducted various exercises and patrols across the Pacific. The maneuvers include large-scale formations and live-fire drills, some of which disrupted commercial flights. The maneuvers occurred amid speculations that the U.S. military is shifting its focus from Europe to the Pacific.

Findings

• South Korea: The Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) conducted a three-week-long patrol in the Provisional Measures Zone (PMZ) to “gradually normalize effective control and gain leverage” over the contested area.
  The PMZ overlaps both South Korea and China’s Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) and was established as a framework to facilitate negotiations over official maritime boundaries.
  Three CCG vessels patrolled an area roughly 120 to 170 miles off of Jeonbuk-Do’s western coast in the Yellow Sea.

• Spratly Archipelago: On 20 February, more than 50 Chinese Maritime Militia (CMM) vessels were observed in formation near Thitu Island. The vessels were supported by a CCG vessel.

• Australia: On 21 February, commercial flights transiting the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand were warned by PLAN vessel last minute to avoid the airspace due to life-fire drills.

• New Zealand: On 22 February, New Zealand’s Defense Ministry announced a second Chinese live-fire event off New Zealand’s coast. The PLAN announced the second live-fire iteration over unencrypted radio channels.

Why This Matters
There is no doubt that China’s sweeping and large-volume exercises are due to various interdisciplinary developments:

• The new Trump administration and a U.S. shift to the Pacific

• President Trump’s tariff threats

• Pro-Taiwanese rhetoric and policy in Washington

• Ukraine peace negotiations so far favoring Russia (which emboldens Beijing’s ambitions)

I also think Xi is attempting to send a message — and set a precedent — to the U.S. Pacific allies. China’s “9-Dash Line” concept lays claim to all of the South China Sea and portions of Japanese and Korean waters. This means as the U.S.-led alliance grows in strength Beijing is under increasing self-induced pressure to project strength.

However, beyond grand strategy speculation, there is a tactical explanation for China’s behavior. In an Irregular Warfare Podcast episode, James Siebens at the Stimson Center classifies these tactics as “Armed Coercion” designed to advance political objectives without engaging in conflict. In the case of the Chinese, Beijing has constructed an intentionally escalatory structure by employing the maritime militia (CMM), Chinese Coast Guard (CCG), and PLA Navy (PLAN) hierarchy.

In this structure, the Chinese use their lowest lethality force (i.e. CMM) to provoke adversaries and enforce territory claims. When a nation responds (e.g. the Philippine Navy), standby forces (i.e. CCG) intervene and enact escalatory practices, such as the use of water cannons, ramming, and forced boarding. China is still waiting for an under-equipped adversary force to make a mistake at a conflict flashpoint (e.g. Paracel Islands, Spratly Islands, Senkakus) so it can engage in lethal force with its premier asset, the PLA Navy.

Sources: Viral Press, Newsweek, Reuters, BBC, NPR, USNI, Irregular Warfare Podcast

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Want to discuss foreign policy news? Be sure to reach out with any comments or concerns: [email protected]

Nick