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- Pacific Weekly (4-10 November 2024)
Pacific Weekly (4-10 November 2024)
The Indo-Pacific partners agree to deeper NATO cooperation, Taiwan prepares for a Trump presidency, and North Korea conducts more ballistic missile launches. Plus more...
Nick
November 10, 2024
Pacific Weekly
Good morning and happy Sunday,
This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.
Reporting Period: 4-10 November 2024
Bottom Line Up Front:
1. The Indo-Pacific partners of Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and South Korea have agreed to deeper cooperation with NATO. The partners attended a NATO defense ministers summit in October, and have sought deeper economic and security alignment due to growing global threats and adversary strategic partnerships.
2. Taiwan has received its first HIMARS artillery from the US. The Taiwanese government has ordered dozens of HIMARS in an effort to increase its long-range strike capability amid growing threats and incursions by China’s PLA.
3. North Korea launched a ballistic missile barrage before US elections. In a show of force, Pyongyang launched seven short-range ballistic missiles which landed in the ocean between South Korea and Japan. Pyongyang reportedly did this in response to a trilateral aerial maneuver near North Korea that included a US B-1B bomber.
4. Despite claims that Trump may abandon US allies, some US officials think Taiwan will jump at the opportunity to land massive economic and defense deals with the Trump administration.
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Indo-Pacific Partners Pledge Deeper Cooperation With NATO
On 5 November, Defense Forum reported that the Indo-Pacific partners (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea) have agreed to expand cooperation and support with NATO.
In October, ministers from those countries attended the NATO defense ministers meeting in Belgium. They discussed China’s growing aggression in the South China Sea, Russia’s war in Ukraine, defense industrial production, and information operations.
Why This Matters
The Indo-Pacific partners started giving closer ties to NATO serious consideration following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 due to its effects on economies, supply chains, and regional security. In 2022, they attended their first NATO meetings and have done so every year since.
Russia’s actions, which are viewed as a multipolar rejection of international law and norms, was feared to be a change in security precedent. In the Pacific, the partners grow concerned that China and North Korea are becoming emboldened and could be more likely to capitalize on strategic interests with force. This brings heightened risks to South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, and the whole South China Sea region.
By committing to NATO cooperation, the IPP and NATO may better deter aggression in the Pacific. In the meantime, allied governments can focus on coordinating defense spending, economic partnership, and military cooperation in preparation for conflict.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by Defense Forum
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Taiwan Receives First HIMARS From US
On 4 October, the first High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) arrived in Taiwan from the United States. It is uncertain how many systems were delivered. Taiwan has ordered 29 HIMARS with 11 scheduled to arrive in Taiwan in early 2025.
Focus Taiwan reported that the Taiwanese 10th Army Corps, 58th Artillery Command is beginning training on the systems in Taichung City.
Why This Matters
HIMARS gives a fighting force a significant advantage in long-range precision fires. In one firing cycle, HIMARS is capable of firing six M31 GMLRS rockets up to 50 miles. HIMARS can also fire one ATACMS missile upwards of 185 miles.
In Ukraine, HIMARS has been used to great effect, striking Russian command and control centers, logistics hubs, critical infrastructure, or rear-positions. One of Putin’s key concerns is NATO approving long-range ATACMS strikes into Russian territory; and act he said would warrant Russian escalations against NATO.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by Focus Taiwan
Coverage by Newsweek
HIMARS by Lockheed Martin
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North Korea Fires Ballistic Missile Barrage
On 4 November, North Korea was observed firing a barrage of short-range ballistic missiles, landing in waters between South Korea and Japan. Japan’s Defense Minister stated that at least 7 missiles flew 250 miles and reached altitudes of 60 miles before termination in the ocean.
North Korea had recently tested a new Hwasong-19 ICBM alongside preparations for a seventh nuclear test.
Why This Matters
North Korea’s missile barrage is a show of force in response to a trilateral air patrol that featured a US B-1B bomber. The barrage also came before US elections, a sign that North Korea is likely to maintain a hostile diplomatic and security posture against the US and its allies, especially due to Pyongyang’s growing alignment with Russia and China.
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Coverage by AP News
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Taiwan Ready For Trump Presidency
On 7 November, Reuters reported that despite the Taiwanese government’s concern that the incoming Trump administration will demand Taiwan “pay up” for US defense guarantees, the country is prepared to make major arms purchases on munitions and other big ticket items.
At the same time, Taiwan’s defense officials have warned that the American presidential transition is likely to be a period of increased Chinese activity. Specifically, Taiwan feels the PLA will increase its military drills, incursions, and information operations around Taiwan as a way of pressuring the new US-Taiwanese relationship.
Why This Matters
There is a lot of speculation that Trump’s “America First” rhetoric means US allies will be pushed to the wayside, and emerging threats ignored. Trump seems intent on re-arranging the Sino-US relationship, and it is likely that he will attempt to leverage Taiwan’s independence to do so.
By deepening defense ties, yet ensuring the US gets its economic guarantees, Trump has a tough but prime opportunity to build-up Taiwan and further deter the invasion China promises is imminent.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by Reuters
End Brief
That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.
See you tomorrow morning,
Nick