Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 24 February - 2 March 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Chinese Propaganda Piece Tells West To Adapt To New Realities

Summary
The CCP’s Global Times published two propaganda pieces urging western nations to adapt to China’s expanding military aggressions in international and sovereign waters. The pieces were published before and after various large-scale live-fire exercises across the Pacific.

Findings

• Live-Fire Drills: On 21 February, the PLA conducted a live-fire exercise in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand which caused more than 40 commercial flights to be rerouted. The incident drew criticism from Australian and New Zealand officials.
  From February 24 to 27, the PLA conducted various patrols or live-fire drills in other locations across the Pacific, one of which was a large-scale exercise off Taiwan’s southwest coast.

• Global Times Piece: Following the incident in the Tasman Sea — and before the drills off Taiwan’s coast on 27 February — the Global Times published two propaganda pieces urging western nations to “adapt” to China’s “far sea” operations and voyages distant from China’s national waters.

Why This Matters
China’s remarks are a clever attempt of discrediting western powers — in this case Australia and New Zealand — due to alleged security incompetencies and hypocrisy.

Additionally, in typical Beijing fashion, the pieces highlight the fact that the vessels were in international waters (skirting exclusive economic zones), a narrative tool to suggest China “plays by the rules” and is a force for global peace and stability. What the pieces do not mention, for example, are the risks posed to commercial flights or the intentional las-minute announcement of the drills.

I think we can take China at their word here: Beijing is certain to expand its military operations beyond the South China Sea and Chinese coastal waters. Where observers need to be vigilant is in discerning Beijing’s messaging; despite what these pieces seem to suggest or imply, Beijing is actively seeking to aggravate its adversaries in the hopes that military or diplomatic miscalculations can lead to favorable outcomes over time for China.

Sources: Global Times, Global Times, The Intel Brief

China Conducts Large-Scale Live Fire Drills Off Taiwan’s Coast

Summary
From 26 to 27 February, the PLA conducted a large-scale live-fire exercise off of Taiwan’s southwest coast. The exercise was very likely conducted in retaliation for Taiwan’s seizure of a Chinese-crewed commercial vessel that cut an undersea cable on 25 February.

Findings

• Background: On 25 February, the Taiwanese Coast Guard intercepted the Hong Tai, a commercial vessel suspected of cutting an undersea internet cable. Despite having an all-Chinese crew, the Hong Tai is registered in Tonga and sails under a “flag of convenience,” a way of subverting sanctions and providing plausible deniability. Taiwanese officials had been monitoring the vessel since Saturday after it was observed loitering near undersea cables and failing to respond to hails. When the Hong Tai dropped anchor on Tuesday, Chunghwa Telecom reported an outage between mainland Taiwan and Penghu Island, prompting authorities to detain the crew for further investigation.

• Live Fire Exercise: On 26 and 27 February, Taiwan’s defense ministry reported that the PLA were conducting an exercise off of Taiwan’s southwest coast near where Taiwanese personnel seized the Chinese commercial vessel.
  The exercise includes the use of live munitions, is within Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ), and has blocked international waters in the vicinity of the Taiwan Strait.
  On 27 February, that exercise included 45 PLA aircraft and 14 naval vessels.

• Other Drills: The live fire drills near Taiwan are not an isolated event, however.

  • New Zealand: Last week, the PLA Navy conducted a live fire exercise in the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand. Despite it taking place in international waters and the PLA issuing a warning, the incident diverted more than 40 commercial flights.

  • Vietnam: From 24 to 27 February, the PLA Navy conducted live fire drills in the Gulf of Tonkin after Vietnam issued a formal map depicting its ownership of the gulf, an area China claims as its own.

Why This Matters
While China originally denied any involvement or connection to the undersea cable sabotage, the live fire events timing suggests it is in retaliation for Taiwan’s response, particularly the seizure of the all-Chinese crew.

However, this is not necessarily retaliatory, but orchestrated.

In Pacific Weekly #39, I wrote about China’s use of armed coercion, which is designed to advance political objectives without engaging in direct conflict with an adversary. I wrote that in China’s case, Beijing has intentionally orchestrated an operations construct in which their lowest lethality force (i.e. the Chinese Maritime Militia) is employed to provoke an adversary or enforce territorial claims. This is exactly what happened on 25 February in the undersea cable incident.

By design, when a nation responded (in this case, Taiwan’s Coast Guard) the standby force was deployed shortly after to intervene, engage in escalatory practices, and further provoke and exhaust their adversary’s resolve. In this case, the PLA has deployed dozens of aircraft and naval vessels to exert pressure on Taiwan in a show of force.

The danger here is, first and foremost, that a tactical error could be made and turn a geopolitical flashpoint (such as the Taiwan Strait) into the start of a kinetic conflict (a narrative opportunity the CCP and PLA would relish). The second danger is that the aggressor, China, can use these opportunities — knowing no one will respond — to develop tactical competencies, pressure Taiwan’s infrastructure and resolve, and rehearse its larger strategic plans piecemeal.

Sources: X (Twitter), The Intel Brief, Reuters, RFA

Taiwan Warns Of CCP United Front Efforts, Ends Academic Exchanges With China

Summary
Taiwan has severed ties with three Chinese universities. Taiwan’s Ministry of Education cited the three university’s associations with the CCP’s United Front as the reason for the decision.

Findings

• Severing Academic Ties: On 23 February, Taipei Times reported that Taiwan’s Ministry of Education announced it was no longer recognizing the qualification from three Chinese universities due to their affiliation with the CCP’s United Front Work Department.

  The universities Taiwan has banned recognition and collaboration with are:

  • Huaqiao University

  • Jinan University

  • Beijing Chinese Language and Culture College

• United Front Efforts: Taiwan banned these Chinese universities due to the CCP’s “Party leads everything” ideology, which wrongly influences the minds and ideologies of students.

Why This Matters
The United Front has been one of China’s greatest tools for conducting ideological subversion and influence campaigns abroad. Taiwan’s decision to cut ties with some Chinese universities is long overdue. It is very likely that Taiwan will continue to cut joint research, funding, and exchange programs with other Chinese universities, a decision that Beijing would be likely to exploit as a major — and “unjust” — deterioration to Cross Strait relations.

Sources: Taipei Times, RFA

Chinese WZ-9 High-Altitude ISR Drone Improves Operational Capability

Summary
Satellites recently captured images of China’s elusive WZ-9 Divine Eagle drone at an air base on Hainan. The WZ-9 is one of China’s High-Altitude Long-Endurance (HALE) drones. There is no information on the Divine Eagle fleet size, but images suggest the drone has a regular operating cycle, signs of a growing fleet or advances in production.

Findings

• WZ-9 Divine Eagle: The WZ-9 is one of China’s High-Altitude, Long-Endurance (HALE) drones capable of conducting ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) missions over a large geographic area.
  The aircraft reportedly has two Side-Looking Airborne Radars (SLARs) which offer high-resolution, real-time imaging in adverse weather and low visibility environments.
  Analysis by The Warzone suggests the airborne sensor suite includes ground and air moving-target indicators and the ability to create Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images (i.e. 2D or 3D renderings of terrain and structures).
  The WZ-9 fleet size is unknown, as is its full operational capability.

Why This Matters
Images and video of the Divine Eagle are pretty rare, but the more they become available — due to them being observed in flight or at air bases — suggests the Chinese are advancing production of the drones and succeeding in operational tests.

The Divine Eagle is a major ISR asset for the PLA, as it allows for long periods of real-time intelligence and surveillance over large geographic regions, a major asset for tracking adversary ships or aircraft. Additionally, a Synthetic Aperture Radar capability would allow the Divine Eagle to create an incredible dataset that supports the analysis and targeting of adversary facilities, especially air defenses, air fields, naval yards, or industrial parks (to name a few).

Sources: The Warzone, USGS

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thanks for reading! Be sure to leave some feedback — I read all comments!

Enjoy your Sunday,

Nick