Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 10-16 March 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Media Reports Chinese “Gray Zone” Tactics Have Steadily Increased

Summary
An article by The Wall Street Journal suggests China’s use of “Gray Zone” tactics — coercive and aggressive strategies short of kinetic warfare — has increased as Beijing looks to increase its influence and authority across the Indo-Pacific.

Findings

• Defense Spending: Despite lower economic growth projections and an ongoing trade war with the United States, China is increasing its 2025 defense spending to 7.2% of its GDP.

• South China Sea: China has built artificial islands, increased military patrols, and deployed maritime militias to challenge regional nations, particularly the Philippines. Recent PLAN exercises, including live-fire drills, were conducted around Australia.

• Taiwan: The PLA has escalated military activities, including near-daily air and naval operations around Taiwan, heightening pressure on the island. Despite the CCP officially stating it will seek “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan, state rhetoric has vowed to “tighten the noose” to remove the “separatist” Taiwanese government.

• Himalayas: China has constructed villages and military infrastructure in disputed border regions with India and Bhutan, gradually cementing control over contested areas. China’s United Front has also previously influenced the teachings, scriptures, and rhetoric of Chinese Buddhism to reflect “Xi Jinping thought” and Chinese nationalism.

Why This Matters
China’s use of gray zone tactics allows it to expand territorial control and strategic influence without triggering a full-scale military response. This approach undermines international norms, pressures regional actors, and challenges U.S. and allied commitments in the Indo-Pacific. The erosion of deterrence and the normalization of coercion raise risks of miscalculation, particularly in flashpoints like Taiwan and the South China Sea.

Persistent threats and a gradually shifting norm — so slow it is almost unnoticeable — also increases the likelihood of regional actors becoming willing to accept Chinese influence, cooperation, investment, or outright control over their nation. In Taiwan, for example, the Kuomintang (KMT) has been a major proponent of integration with Chinese institutions and businesses, with the goal being a “peaceful” reunification.

Sources: WSJ, VOA, ABC, Reuters

U.S., Partners Expand Shiprider Agreements

Summary
The U.S. Navy and Coast Guard, along will partner nations in the Indo-Pacific, have expanded shiprider agreements. The agreements facilitate the transfer of crews to enhance stability and security while sharing tactical best-practices and procedures.

Findings

• Shiprider Program Expansion: Originally established in 2008 with the Cook Islands, the program has expanded to multiple Pacific nations, allowing joint patrols to enforce national sovereignty over maritime resources.
  Exchanges in February 2025 were between the U.S. Coast Guard, Australia, New Zealand, and Tuvalu.

• Scope: The shiprider agreement allows allied vessels and personnel to learn how to best enforce maritime law, combat illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, drug trafficking, and transnational crime.

• Geopolitical Context: China’s increasing maritime presence in the Pacific, including hospital ship deployments, is raising concerns about its strategic intentions. The shiprider program serves to counteract China’s dominance in nontraditional security operations in the region.

Why This Matters
The shiprider agreements reinforce U.S. and allied influence in the Pacific, ensuring that smaller island nations can assert control over their territorial waters against illegal activity. As China expands its presence in the region through medical diplomacy and infrastructure projects, these partnerships serve as a critical tool for maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific. By supporting maritime security, the U.S. strengthens regional alliances, deters illicit activities, and counters China's strategic expansion.

I highly recommend listening to the linked podcast by IWI which illustrates how China’s nontraditional security force posture is used to grow Beijing’s partnerships with developing nations, increase China's influence abroad, and integrate PLA cooperation into militaries and governments across the Pacific.

Sources: Indo-Pacific Defense Forum, Spotify

Taiwanese President Outlines Measures To Counter Chinese Coercion, Espionage

Summary
On 13 March, President Lai outlined measures that could limit Chinese efforts to weaken the social, cultural, and political fabric of Taiwan. Citing “Gray Area” actions and psychological warfare, Lai exposed China’s efforts to “subvert, obtain secrets, lure members of the armed forces and influence public opinion to lose confidence in our national defense.”

Findings

• President Lai’s Reforms: Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te proposed new reforms to counteract Chinese coercion, influence, and espionage activities.

• U.S. Efforts: In the U.S. Republican lawmakers have also proposed legislation which would ban Chinese nationals from obtaining student visas in the U.S., citing similar concerns regarding China’s “Gray Zone” and information warfare techniques.
  The “Stop CCP VISAs Act” is currently circulating in Congress before heading to a vote.

Why This Matters
China’s information warfare operations — mostly carried out via the CCP’s United Front (which includes the Confucius Institute) — has been the world’s greatest structure for IP theft, espionage, ideological coercion, and influence.

The program has been so successful, that Chinese politicians have been planted abroad to pursue Chinese interests, not just in Taiwan, but the U.S. and Canada.

Sources: AP News, Economic Times, Fox News, Newsweek, CBC

PLA Navy Invasion Barges Spotted Conducting Drills In South China Sea

Summary
The PLA Navy recently conducted drills with its new landing barges. The drills are the first documented incident of the barges’ deployment.

Findings

• Barges: Naval News originally reported that at least five barges with 390+ foot bridges were constructed by Chinese shipbuilders at the Guangzhou Shipyard in southern China.

• Role: It is likely, given the size of the barges and a lack of organic defensive systems, that the ships would be used to support the logistics necessary for ship-to-shore operations. They would likely be employed following a successful PLA invasion of Taiwan.

Why This Matters
The new barges are a significant development for the PLA. A part of the PLA’s modernization, directed by Xi Jinping, includes the development of ship-to-shore capabilities — this includes developing the requisite systems, platforms, and tactical proficiency.

Considering those details, the construction of these barges indicates China’s intention to seize Taiwan by force despite recent CCP rhetoric stating a “peaceful reunification” is desirable for Beijing.

Sources: The Telegraph, NY Post

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Enjoy your Sunday,

Nick