Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 17-23 March 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

U.S. Army Prepares Second Typhon Battery For Indo-Pacific Deployment

Summary
The U.S. Army announced it is preparing to deploy a second Typhon missile battery, officially known as the Mid-Range Capability (MRC) system, to the Pacific theater, enhancing its long-range strike capabilities in the region.

Findings

• New Deployment: The U.S. Army has two fielded Typhon batteries. One is in the Philippines and the other is at Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Washington. The battery in Washington is scheduled to deploy to the 3rd Multidomain Task Force (MDTF) in Hawaii.

• Typhon Missile System: The Typhon system, developed by Lockheed Martin, employs a vertical launch system capable of firing Navy Standard Missile-6 (SM-6) and Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles (TLAM), targeting threats within a 500 to 2,000-kilometer range.
  Each Typhon battery comprises a battery operations center, four launchers, prime movers, and modified trailers.

• Philippine Deployment: The first Typhon battery was deployed to the Philippines in April 2024 during Exercise Salaknib and has remained in Luzon. China criticized the initial deployment, suggesting it could destabilize the region.

Why This Matters
Deploying a second Typhon missile battery to the Pacific underscores the U.S. commitment to strengthening deterrence and defense capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region. This move enhances the Army's ability to project power and respond to potential threats, aligning with broader national security objectives to maintain stability and counterbalance regional adversaries.

From China’s perspective, the deployment of another Typhon battery is a direct challenge to its military posture in the region. Beijing has consistently criticized U.S. military buildups in the Pacific, arguing that they contribute to instability and provoke an arms race. The deployment places advanced U.S. strike capabilities closer to critical Chinese military installations, including those on the mainland and in the South China Sea, increasing pressure on China’s anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy. This development will likely factor into China’s military planning and diplomatic rhetoric, potentially escalating tensions in an already contested region.

Sources: Defense News

Japan To Deploy Long-Range Missiles To Kyushu Island

Summary
On March 17, Japan announced plans to deploy long-range missiles on Kyushu Island by March 2026, aiming to enhance defense capabilities against regional threats. This marks a significant preemptive shift in Japan’s strategy against Chinese and North Korean aggression.

Findings

• Type-12 Anti-Ship Missile: The deployment will feature the Type-12 surface-to-ship missiles, a long-range weapon system capable of reaching targets up to 1,000 km away, enabling it to strike key targets in North Korea and China's coastal regions. These missiles are designed to counter maritime threats, but with the extended range, they also provide strategic offensive capabilities.

• Deployment Sites: Considered locations for missile deployment include Camp Yufuin in Oita and Camp Kengun in Kumamoto, both on Kyushu Island. These locations are strategically situated for effective missile coverage in the region.

• Historical Context: Japan has traditionally maintained a pacifist stance due to its military activities being constrained by Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, which limits its offensive military capacity. Recently, Japan has increasingly embraced a more assertive defense policy due to stronger defense ties with the U.S. and increased Chinese and North Korean tensions. This missile deployment marks one of the most significant departures from its post-WWII military limitations.

Why This Matters
Japan's decision to deploy the Type-12 surface-to-ship missiles on Kyushu reflects a significant shift in its defense posture. This move signals Japan’s growing concerns about regional security dynamics, particularly North Korea’s missile developments and China’s increasing military presence. By enhancing its military capabilities, Japan is positioning itself to better defend against potential threats, asserting its role in maintaining stability in East Asia.

The decision also marks a departure from Japan’s traditional pacifist stance. Japan’s development of "counterstrike capabilities" and the deployment of offensive missile systems like the Type-12 are key components of its evolving defense strategy. The move to deploy these missiles on Kyushu, strategically located to reach critical targets in North Korea and China, underlines Japan’s growing assertiveness in its military policy.

The deployment site choice avoids the Okinawa islands, which are closer to Taiwan, to mitigate potential tensions with China. This careful consideration demonstrates Japan's effort to balance its defense priorities with regional sensitivities. The shift in policy may lead to significant regional consequences, influencing security dynamics and prompting responses from neighboring nations. Japan’s stronger defense posture is likely to reshape regional power balances and potentially draw closer ties with its allies, particularly the U.S.

Sources: The Guardian

Taiwan Rehearses Rapid Troop Mobilization Amid Growing China Threat

Summary
On 17 March, Taiwan’s military began a five-day “rapid response exercise” to rehearse its mobilization capability in the event of a sudden conflict with China.

Findings

• Trigger: Defence Minister Koo stated the exercise was launched in response to China deploying 59 aircraft and warships around Taiwan this week. Koo stated that “For the People’s Liberation Army, turning drills into an attack doesn’t take as much time as we imagined in the past,” indicating Taiwanese concerns that future PLA drills will end up being a conflict flashpoint.
  Taiwanese officials state China has been conducting Joint Combat Readiness Patrols every 7 to 10 days.

• Actions: Taiwan’s exercise was basic and included the activation, armament, and deployment of Taiwanese personnel to pre-planned defensive positions. Personnel set up anti-landing barriers, blockades, and air defense systems to mimic the defense of strategic facilities and positions.

Why This Matters
It is uncertain based on Taiwan’s defensive drills how successful it would be in defending against a China naval invasion. However, the increased frequency of Taiwan’s military and civil drills indicate the Taiwanese government and military is growing more concerned with Chinese incursions and aggressions.

These findings suggest Taiwan and allied partners, such as the U.S., believe China will invade Taiwan by or during 2027. If China is believed to invade Taiwan by 2027, that could accelerate other U.S.-Taiwanese policies, such as formal recognition of Taiwanese sovereignty, clarity on U.S. military intervention criteria, further arms deals, and deeper economic investment.

Sources: Reuters, YouTube, The Defense Post

Taiwan Signs Pipeline Deal With U.S.

Summary
On 21 March, it was announced that Taiwan had signed a Liquified Natural Gas deal with the U.S. The deal will see the construction of an LNG pipeline — a part of the Alaska North Slope LNG project — to deliver natural gas to Asia from Alaskan ports.

Findings

• Partnership: Taiwan’s national oil company, CPC, is investing in the Alaska North Slope LNG project to bring natural gas to Taiwan.
  President Lai said the deal will help secure Taiwan’s energy and security needs.

• Energy Pivot: Taiwan is divesting from nuclear and coal power and is seeking to get 50% of its energy from natural gas.

• Alaska North Slope LNG: The Alaskan LNG project will cost the U.S. $44 billion for the construction of a 1,300 km pipeline.

Why This Matters
Taiwan is the first Asian country to invest in the Alaskan LNG project. Taiwan’s investment could prompt greater investment from some of the U.S.’s other close partners, such as Japan and South Korea.

Sources: Reuters, EE News

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thanks for reading, and see you tomorrow!

Happy Sunday,

Nick