Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 24-30 March 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

Xi Jinping Continues To Purge CCP And PLA Elites

Summary
On 25 March, The Washington Times reported that a senior PLA General has disappeared from public life. The recent purge indicates Xi’s desire to remove CCP corruption and reinforce hierarchical loyalty. A recent report by the ODNI suggests these purges are a critical component of Xi’s reforms, which attempt to make the PLA capable and willing to invade Taiwan.

Findings

• Background: Since 2012, Chinese President Xi Jinping has led an extensive anti-corruption campaign targeting the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People's Liberation Army (PLA). In 2024, it was reported that Xi had purged more than a dozen senior Generals and CCP elites from public life.

• Intent: Xi leverages anti-corruption campaigns and internal party purges as tools for eliminating political rivals and installing loyalists.

• Recent Disappearance: General He Weidong, Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission, has recently disappeared from public view, marking the latest in a series of high-profile purges within China's military and political spheres.

• Wealth and Corruption Among CCP Leadership: A recent unclassified report by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) highlights significant wealth accumulation and corrupt activities among Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders. The report details how high-ranking officials have leveraged their positions for personal gain, leading to widespread corruption within the party's upper echelons and potentially diminishing China’s strategic capabilities and potential.

• Reduction in Military Influence: At the recent National People's Congress plenary session, the military delegation decreased to 267 members from 281 in 2023, with 14 delegates removed due to corruption charges. This reduction underscores Xi's focus on consolidating control over the military.

Why This Matters
Xi Jinping's purge policy underscores his commitment to consolidating power and ensuring loyalty within the CCP and PLA. While these actions aim to strengthen internal discipline, they may also indicate underlying instability and factionalism within China's leadership. For the United States, understanding these internal dynamics is crucial, as they could influence China's strategic decisions, military readiness, and approach to international relations, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region.

As for a Taiwan scenario, the purges and diminishing influence of military elites indicate Xi’s desire to have fewer high-level decisionmakers; indicating controlled operational oversight and loyalty to rehearsed strategies.

Sources: ODNI, Focus Taiwan, The Washington Times, Financial Times

Chinese Patrols Around Senkakus Set New Incursion Record

Summary
On 24 March, two Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels entered Japanese territorial waters off the coast of the Senkakus. The incursion had become the longest incursion of Chinese assets into Japanese territory to date.

Findings

• Record-Breaking Incursion: The two Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels entered Japanese waters early Friday, with two additional ships joining on Saturday. By Monday, two vessels were still present, surpassing the previous post-2012 nationalization record of 80 hours and 36 minutes.
  At least two of the vessels were equipped with naval guns.

• Strategic Implications: China’s “9-Dash Line” doctrine has consistently maintained that the Senkaku Islands (known as Diaoyu in Chinese) are part of its territory. This latest incursion aligns with Beijing’s broader strategy of using its coast guard and paramilitary forces to challenge Japan’s administrative control of the islands.

• Japan’s Response: The Japanese Coast Guard (JCG), based out of the 11th regional headquarters on Okinawa, tracked and monitored the Chinese vessels, issuing warnings and calling for their immediate withdrawal. The Japanese government is expected to lodge an official diplomatic protest with Beijing.

Why This Matters
While China has made the enforcement of its “9-Dash Line” doctrine a core part of its regional policy, there are some other developments regarding Japan that likely spurred Beijing’s desire to violate Japanese waters and set a new, symbolic incursion record.

The prolonged Chinese Coast Guard presence in Japan's territorial waters near the Senkaku Islands is likely a direct response to Japan’s growing defense capabilities, which have been expanding due to increasing security threats in the region. Japan’s planned deployment of Type-12 anti-ship missiles on Kyushu Island, set for next year, aims to bolster the defense of Okinawa, an area of strategic importance in countering threats from both North Korea and China. The strategic placement of these missiles, excluding Okinawa, reflects Japan’s efforts to avoid escalating tensions with China while enhancing its defensive posture.

Japan’s record defense budget of 8.7 trillion yen ($55 billion) for 2025 reflects a continued commitment to military buildup, with plans to acquire U.S.-made Tomahawk missiles and advanced missile defense systems, including interceptors and mobile radar systems stationed in Okinawa. This significant increase in defense spending strengthens Japan's ability to project power and defend its territorial integrity. In addition, the establishment of Japan's Self-Defense Force Joint Operations Command (JJOC) improves coordination with U.S. forces in the region, further solidifying military cooperation between the two nations.

China's increasing incursions, including the latest maritime violations, are likely an attempt to assert dominance in the region and challenge Japan’s growing defense capabilities. These actions may be seen as a strategic response to Japan’s defense buildup, aiming to test Japan's resolve and remind Tokyo of Beijing’s claims over the Senkaku Islands. Additionally, Japan's support for enhanced security cooperation with South Korea, India, and other Indo-Pacific nations, especially through U.S.-backed initiatives, directly counters China’s growing regional influence. These incursions are part of a broader geopolitical struggle for influence, where China aims to challenge the increasing military unity of its neighboring democracies. For the United States, a key ally of Japan, these developments highlight the importance of reinforcing strategic defense ties to counter China’s aggression and protect a rules-based regional order.

Sources: Japan Times, Japan Forward

Chinese Regulator Pause Panama Canal Port Sale

Summary
On 28 March, China intervened to pause the sale of Panama ports from Hong Kong-owned CK Hutchison to BlackRock. The deal was set to be signed this week, but may be delayed indefinitely.

Findings

• Port Sale Pause: On 28 March, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation announced it was pausing the sale of Panama’s ports, owned by Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison, to a consortium led by BlackRock.

• Future Sale: CK Hutchison announced that following the Chinese government’s review of the sale, the deal will not be signed this week as was planned.
  It is uncertain when the deal will be signed.

• Background: In early March 2025, it was announced that BlackRock was leading an international consortium to purchase 80% of CK Hutchison’s assets, including 90% of Panama Ports, the company who operates two critical ports on each side of the Panama Canal (Balboa on the Pacific side and Cristobal on the Atlantic).
  President Trump had previously warned that China’s influence over Panama’s ports remained a growing national security risk.

Why This Matters
The BlackRock purchase of Panama Docks was seen as a solution to China’s growing influence over the Panama Canal. Trump’s administration has been criticized for claiming the canal was run by China. While not technically true, China’s influences certainly influenced America’s ability to use and transit the canal under favorable conditions.

Now, there is also the possibility that China will use the sale as leverage against Trump admin tariffs.

Sources: CNN, HKTKWW, The Intel Brief

Japan Publicizes Plans To Evacuate Outlying Islands In Okinawa Prefecture

Summary
Japan announced plans to evacuate islands a part of the Okinawa prefecture in the event of conflict with China. The plans include removing more than 100,000 civilians within 6 days.

Findings

• Evacuation Plans: Japan announced plans to evacuate more than 100,000 civilians from outlying islands in the Okinawa prefecture. The plans cover five islands, such as Yonaguni and Ishigaki.
  Details suggest Japan would use ships and aircraft to evacuate civilians within 6 days of the onset of conflict.

• Rehearsals: To ensure the necessary logistics, Japan is planning to conduct an evacuation exercise in April 2025.

Why This Matters
This evacuation plan is significant for several reasons.

First, it reflects the growing fears of a conflict between China and Taiwan, which would likely involve Japan, a key U.S. strategic ally. Japan’s proximity to Taiwan makes it highly vulnerable to any regional instability. Additionally, with China's military presence increasing near Taiwan, Japan is growing more concerned about its security. The evacuation plan is a proactive measure to protect its citizens in case the conflict escalates.

The Sakishima islands, strategically located near Taiwan, are vital for Japan’s defense, and Japan’s military preparedness, including missile defense on Yonaguni Island, indicates the potential threat the country faces. Moreover, the plan highlights Japan’s view of the Taiwan Strait as a critical area for regional and global stability, with the potential conflict having far-reaching economic, political, and security implications. The scale of the plan, which involves evacuating over 100,000 people, demonstrates the severity of Japan’s concerns, and the logistics of such an evacuation would be complex and costly.

Lastly, the plan signals Japan’s commitment to its alliance with the U.S. and its broader strategy to counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.

Sources: The Guardian

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thank you for reading.

Enjoy your Sunday,

Nick