Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 31 March - 6 April 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

(Pardon the shorter brief this weekend).

China Launches Large-Scale, Retaliatory Exercise Around Taiwan

Summary
On 31 March, China conducted a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan. China conducted the joint exercise following U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth’s visit to the Pacific region, where he met with Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) leadership and officials of allied nations, such as Japan and the Philippines.

Findings

• Exercise Strait Thunder-2025A: On 1 April, the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command stated that the PLA conducted a large-scale, joint exercise around Taiwan. The exercise reportedly included the PLA, PLAN, PLAAF, and PLARF. The exercise, according to South China Morning Post, has been dubbed Strait Thunder-2025A.
  Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense claims 19 PLAN vessels, including the CNS Shandong aircraft carrier, were present. CNN reports that 71 aircraft also participated in the exercise. Taiwan’s MOD stated the exercise concluded on Wednesday, 2 April.

• Chinese Justification: Chinese authorities stated that the exercises were a response to "foreign connivance and support to Taiwan independence," serving as a "serious warning" to the “separatist” government in Taipei. ​

• Taiwan's Response: Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense monitored the exercises closely, tracking Chinese naval and air activities, and emphasized that such actions undermine regional security and stability. Taiwan stated its military remains on “high vigilance” and that aircraft, navy vessels, and air defense units were deployed to monitor the exercise.

Why This Matters
The recent Chinese military exercises around Taiwan, conducted in the immediate aftermath of Secretary Hegseth's Pacific tour, underscore escalating tensions in the Indo-Pacific region.

China's assertive maneuvers signal its intent to deter Taiwanese independence and challenge U.S. influence among its regional allies. The involvement of advanced assets like the Shandong aircraft carrier highlights China's growing military capabilities and its readiness to project power in contested areas.

For the U.S. and its allies, these developments necessitate a reassessment of strategic postures and defense commitments to maintain regional stability and deter a potential 2027 conflict.

Finally, the exercise’s designation of Strait Thunder-2025A suggests the PLA will conduct other joint exercises in this series — of the same or greater scale and scope — throughout 2025.

Sources: CNN, POLITICO, USNI News, Taiwan Ministry of National Defense, South China Morning Post

Hegseth Completes Inaugural Visits To Japan, Philippines

Summary
From 27 to 30 March, U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth conducted inaugural visits to the Philippines and Japan. Hegseth met with his respective counterparts, where each party agreed to deeper security and strategic cooperation.

Findings

• Japanese Deterrence: On 30 March, during his first visit to Japan, U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth met with his counterpart, Japanese Defense Minister Nakatani. According to Kyoto News, the pair agreed to “accelerate efforts to strengthen the alliance’s deterrence amid China’s growing assertiveness in the region.”

• USFJ Upgrade: On 30 March, Hegseth announced that the first phase of upgrades to the U.S. Forces Japan (USFJ) to a Joint Force Headquarters was complete. Paired with Japan’s establishment of a Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDDF) Joint Operations Command (JJOC), the U.S. and Japan can better coordinate and execute bilateral operations in training and crisis environments.

• Philippine’s Visit: From 27 to 28 March, Hegseth made his inaugural visit to the Philippines, where he met with President Marcos and Secretary of National Defense Teodoro.
  Both nations committed to ensuring a “free and open” Indo-Pacific. Hegseth and Teodoro reiterated the continued commitment to the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT).
  The pair also highlighted the importance of two agreements that are the cornerstone of bilateral security cooperation.

  • 1998 Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA)

  • 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA)

• Philippine Deterrence: Hegseth and Teodoro announced new efforts to improve Philippine deterrence against China:

  • Deploying advanced U.S. capabilities to the Philippines, such as the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) and unmanned surface vessels.

  • Conducting bilateral special operations forced training in the Batanes Islands to improve littoral operations capabilities.

  • Publishing a bilateral defense industrial cooperation statement.

  • Conducting a bilateral cybersecurity campaign.

• Balikatan Participation: On 28 March, the Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF) participated in a multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity (MCA) with the United States and the Philippines.
  JMSDF’s participation is significant due to it being Japan’s inaugural participation in the Balikatan exercise.
  Balikatan is the largest U.S.-Philippine military exercise and has been conducted annually since 2001. It is considered the foundation of U.S.-Philippine defense relations.

Why This Matters
Hegseth’s visit represents a critical shift in U.S. foreign policy; one that was Europe-centric but is now taking greater interest and concern over affairs in the Pacific, with priorities being to deter — or win — a war with China.

Both of those strategies, deterring or beating China, require deep strategic partnerships. Japan and the Philippines have risen to the occasion, perhaps more than any ally in the region.

While the partnerships allow the deployment of U.S. personnel and assets to their territories, their growing roles have also facilitated their own improved offensive capabilities. Japan, for example, is developing offensive strike capabilities for its constitutionally obligated defensive military.

Sources: U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Department of Defense, Kyodo News, Baird Maritime

U.S. Recognizes China’s First Credible Nuclear Deterrent Submarine

Summary
On 26 March, the U.S. Department of Defense officially recognized China's Type 094 Jin-class submarines as the nation's first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent. This acknowledgment underscores significant advancements in China's naval capabilities and strategic reach.

Findings

• Recognition: On 26 March, Army Recognition reported that U.S. Strategic Command assessed the PLAN Type-094 (Jin-class) submarines were China’s first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent.

• Type-094 Submarine: The PLAN currently operates six Jin-class ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). Each can carry twelve submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). OSINT suggests the SLBMs can strike targets anywhere from 7,000-10,000 km, depending on loadout.
  One of the Type-094’s downsides is its lack of stealth capabilities due to noise, making them easier to track and target.

Why This Matters
Much of this section will be based on two sources: America’s recognition of the Jin-class and a 2024 Congressional report on China’s naval modernization efforts.

The U.S. Department of Defense's recognition of China's Type 094 Jin-class submarines as a credible sea-based nuclear deterrent marks a significant milestone in China's strategic military evolution. By establishing a survivable second-strike capability, Beijing enhances its nuclear deterrence posture, reducing the effectiveness of U.S. first-strike options and complicating extended deterrence commitments to regional allies. The operational deployment of these submarines, particularly with the anticipated integration of JL-3 SLBMs, enables China to hold the U.S. homeland at risk from launch positions in the South China Sea. This development signals a maturation of China’s nuclear doctrine, transitioning from a minimal deterrence strategy toward a more flexible and assured retaliatory capability.

In my opinion, this is very likely one of China’s strategic developments that has inspired the Trump administration’s desire to establish the “Golden Dome” project.

The expansion of China's nuclear-armed submarine fleet also raises concerns about regional security and stability. Unlike the U.S. and Russia, which maintain highly secure and continuous-at-sea deterrent patrols, China's SSBN force remains vulnerable due to acoustic detection limitations and limited operational experience. However, efforts to improve operational readiness, including longer and more frequent deterrence patrols, suggest China is refining its ability to maintain a credible at-sea nuclear force. This shift could prompt the U.S. and its allies to bolster anti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilities, strengthen undersea surveillance networks, and reconsider strategic force postures in the Indo-Pacific. Additionally, as China expands its SSBN fleet, there is theoretically an increased risk of miscalculation or unintended escalation in maritime flashpoints, particularly in the South China Sea, where nuclear and conventional forces operate in close proximity.

Beyond regional implications, the growing credibility of China's sea-based deterrent has global ramifications. It challenges the existing strategic stability framework by introducing an additional nuclear actor with a survivable second-strike capability, further complicating nonproliferation (i.e. Iran and North Korea). The United States and its allies must now account for a more resilient Chinese nuclear force in any future strategic stability discussions. This development also underscores the broader trend of nuclear modernization efforts by great powers, reinforcing the need for robust deterrence strategies, enhanced missile defense systems, and renewed diplomatic engagement to mitigate risks.

Sources: The National Interest, Naval Encyclopedia, Army Recognition, U.S. Congress

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thanks for reading.

Nick