Good morning and Happy Easter,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 14-20 April 2025

Bottom-Line Up Front:

U.S. Lawmakers Visit Taiwan

Summary
From 16-19 April, Senators Ricketts (R-NE), Budd (R-NC), and Coons (D-DE) visited with Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te in Taipei. The three Senators were hosted by the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto U.S. embassy. The Senators discussed trade, tariffs, and security with President Lai and other high-level officials.

Findings

• Bipartisan Support for Taiwan: The senators' visit aimed to demonstrate continued U.S. commitment to Taiwan's security and democracy. Senator Ricketts emphasized the importance of helping Taiwan defend itself and maintaining peace across the Taiwan Strait, opposing any unilateral changes to Taiwan's status.

• Economic Cooperation Amid Tariffs: Despite President Trump's recent tariffs, Taiwanese officials are working to address U.S. concerns by negotiating new trade and investment deals, including a significant $100 billion investment in U.S.-based chip production. Currently, Taiwan is experiencing a 32% tariff imposition by President Trump.

• China's Response: In the past, China has expressed strong opposition to visits by official U.S. diplomats to Taiwan, viewing it as a provocation and a challenge to its sovereignty claims over the island. Beijing has conducted military exercises near Taiwan and issued statements condemning the visit.

Why This Matters
The U.S. Senators' visit to Taiwan underscores the bipartisan consensus in Washington supporting Taiwan's security and democratic values, even amid internal policy shifts like the recent tariffs. Taiwan's proactive steps to invest in U.S. industries and bolster its own defense capabilities reflect a strategic alignment with American interests.

Recently, U.S. policymakers introduced legislation to officially recognize Taiwanese sovereignty. That decision was made shortly after the U.S. State Department removed a line in an official white paper stating Washington recognized Beijing’s “One-China Principle.”

China's opposition and military posturing highlight the escalating tensions in the region, raising concerns about potential conflicts and the stability of U.S.-China relations. Previously, when U.S. diplomats visited Taiwan, they were succeeded by Chinese military exercises.

Estimate: It is very likely that China will conduct large-scale exercises around Taiwan following the departure of the bipartisan delegation.

Sources: Reuters, AP News

Xi Jinping Concludes Southeast Asia Tour, Grows Chinese Influence Amid U.S. Tariffs

Summary
Chinese President Xi Jinping concluded a five-day diplomatic tour of Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, aiming to strengthen China's economic and strategic ties in Southeast Asia. The visit comes amid escalating trade tensions with the United States, as President Donald Trump implements new tariffs on Asian exports. Xi's engagements focused on promoting China's role as a reliable partner and countering U.S. influence in the region.

Findings

• Vietnam: Xi's visit to Hanoi emphasized economic cooperation, with discussions on infrastructure projects, including railway development. The two nations signed approximately 40 agreements, reflecting China's intent to deepen ties with Vietnam, a country balancing relations between Beijing and Washington.
  China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), was invited to the military parade during Xi’s visit, suggesting a path towards deeper security integration.

• Malaysia: In meetings with Malaysian leaders, Xi advocated for a "new golden era" in bilateral relations. The discussions highlighted China's commitment to supporting Malaysia's economic development and resisting protectionist trade policies.

• Cambodia: Xi's visit to Phnom Penh resulted in the signing of 37 agreements across various sectors, including a $1.2 billion deal to finance the Funan Techo Canal, enhancing Cambodia's maritime connectivity. The canal project, developed by Chinese firms, is expected to boost Cambodia's economy but has raised environmental concerns.

Why This Matters
Xi Jinping's Southeast Asia tour underscores China's strategic efforts to solidify its influence in the region amid growing U.S. trade pressure. By offering economic partnerships and infrastructure investments, China is attempting to position itself as a stable ally to Southeast Asian nations facing uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies. These developments may shift regional dynamics, challenging U.S. influence and altering trade relationships in the Asia-Pacific.​

Where China may face some difficulty is in balancing economic integration with security concerns. Vietnam, for example, frequently falls victim to CCP propaganda campaigns and PLA incursions — a part of Beijing’s “9-Dash Line” doctrine — which claims outlying islands as Chinese.

On Thursday, President Trump suggested China has reached out to Washington to schedule a meeting between Xi and Trump, indicating a Chinese desire to end the ongoing trade war.

Sources: AP News, CBC, Barron’s

CSIS Report: U.S. Cannot Recover REE Supply Chain Without China

Summary
The United States is confronting a critical supply chain vulnerability due to its heavy reliance on China for rare earth elements (REEs), essential for defense systems, electric vehicles (EVs), and renewable energy technologies. Recent Chinese export restrictions due to U.S. tariffs, coupled with the U.S.'s limited domestic production capacity, have intensified concerns over national security and economic stability.​

Findings

• Chinese Export Restrictions: In response to escalating trade tensions, China has imposed export licensing restrictions on seven strategic rare earth elements—samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium. These elements are vital for U.S. military applications, including F-35 jets and smart weaponry.

• U.S. Domestic Production Limitations: The U.S. operates a single rare earth mine, Mountain Pass in California, managed by MP Materials. While efforts are underway to enhance domestic processing capabilities, including a planned magnet plant in Texas, these initiatives are years from fruition.

• Presidential Actions: President Donald Trump has ordered a national security investigation into critical mineral imports, aiming to reduce dependency on foreign sources, particularly China. The probe will assess the feasibility of imposing tariffs and bolstering domestic supply chains.

• Impact on Clean Energy Sector: China's dominance in the rare earth market poses a significant threat to the U.S. clean energy sector. Export controls on critical minerals jeopardize the supply chains for solar, wind, and battery technologies, potentially stalling the transition to renewable energy.

Why This Matters
The U.S.'s dependence on Chinese rare earth elements exposes it to strategic vulnerabilities, particularly in defense and energy sectors. China's ability to leverage its control over these critical materials underscores the urgency for the U.S. to diversify its supply chains and invest in domestic production capabilities. Failure to address this dependency could compromise national security and hinder technological advancement.

Statements by USINDOPACOM Commander Admiral Paparo (USN), indicate the critical nature of this issue. For example, Paparo stated that China’s aircraft output is a greater 1.2 : 1 ratio compared to the U.S., meaning Beijing could establish air superiority within the First Island Chain at the outset of conflict with Taiwan and the U.S.-led alliance.

Interestingly, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which is facing an unconventional conflict against Rwandan-supported guerrillas, has offered the U.S. an REE deal in exchange for assistance on security. This means U.S. foreign policy could develop a greater role in Africa as Washington contends with a shift away from reliance on China.

Sources: AP News, CNBC, Reuters, MSN

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

Thank you for reading!

Happy Easter,

Nick