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Pacific Weekly (7-13 October)
A major shift in relations between the Koreas, large-scale exercises in the Pacific, and concerns of Chinese aggression against Taiwan. Plus more...
Nick
October 13, 2024
Pacific Weekly
Good morning and happy Sunday,
This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.
Reporting Period: 7-13 October
Bottom Line Up Front:
1. The Filipino-American exercise Sama Sama began in the Philippines. The exercise also coincides with JPMRC, the US Army’s largest Pacific-based ground exercise. The exercises, while pre-planned, are shadowed by fierce tensions between China and Taiwan and North and South Korea.
2. Vietnam is copying China’s island building strategy. Satellite imagery revealed that Vietnam is using a dredging technique to build artificial islands in the South China Sea. It is uncertain if Communist Vietnam is doing this to deter Communist China, or to be open to greater cooperation in the future.
3. China’s two functioning aircraft carriers are moored together. It is the first time they have been in port together. It is likely they are undergoing minor repairs and a “hull swap,” despite concerns of imminent, large-scale Chinese naval actions around Taiwan.
4. North Korea has altered its constitution. It has abandoned reunification verbiage, signaling a commitment to hostile relations with South Korea. North Korea also recently closed off all rail and road access to the South.
5. The UK urged the former Taiwanese president to postpone her visit. The UK Foreign Secretary is traveling to China, and they do not want to sour relations by entertaining Taiwan beforehand. This will be former president Tsai’s first foreign tour since leaving office.
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Major Exercises Begin In The Philippines
On 7 October, exercise Sama Sama 2024 commenced. The exercise is led by the US and the Philippines, and includes Australia, Canada, France, and Japan. Sama Sama (Tagalog for “togetherness”) is predominantly a naval exercise, and takes place in the waters of the northern Philippines. The exercise will run until 17 October.
The US Navy stated that participants will conduct various training including maritime surveillance, special warfare, diving, and anti-submarine and anti-aircraft operations.
On 7 October, the US Army 25th Infantry Division and the Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center (JPMRC) launched JPMRC 25-01, the largest iteration of the exercise yet. The US Army will lead multiple Pacific partner militaries in joint multi-domain, live, and virtual fires exercises.
Why This Matters
The exercises greatly improve operational capabilities among the Indo-Pacific partners. However, they are overshadowed by concerns that China will surround Taiwan with its naval forces in response to National Day celebrations. May 2024 was the last time Chinese forces encircled Taiwan. Touted as annual training, the exercise was launched as “punishment” for President Lai Ching-te’s inauguration.
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Vietnam Is Copying China’s Island Building Strategy
On 9 October, The Wall Street Journal reported on Vietnam’s island building strategy in the South China Sea; a land reclamation and dredging strategy that China pioneered. Vietnam is currently expanding and militarizing dozens of atolls in the Spratly Islands.
Why This Matters
About one-third of global trade moves through the South China Sea each year. At risk are other untapped resources such as fisheries and hydrocarbons. The technique also destroys fragile underwater ecosystems like reefs.
From a security perspective, greater island and military infrastructure in this region could be used to restrict or control global trade in the future. China and Vietnam are both controlled by Communist governments, with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Vietnamese President To Lam maintaining close relations.
China claims all of the South China Sea - well outside its 200 nautical mile economic exclusion zone (EEZ) - as its sovereign territory. Vietnam could be developing these islands for security against China, or for joint use.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by WSJ
(Thanks to our reader, Jake, for assisting with this piece)
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China’s Two Functioning Aircraft Carriers Pictured In Port Together
On 9 October, Newsweek reported that satellite imagery revealed the PLA Navy’s CNS Liaoning and CNS Shandong aircraft carriers docked at Sanya Naval Base on the island of Hainan. This is the first time the carriers have been seen moored together. China’s third aircraft carrier, the CNS Fujian, remains at the Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai.
Why This Matters
The Liaoning recently spent its time at sea conducting carrier operations east of the Philippines. The Shandong recently concluded exercises in the South China Sea and western Pacific.
It is uncertain why the carriers are moored together. It is likely they are undergoing minor repairs and “hull swaps” (i.e. swapping of crewmates and aircraft). The carriers could also be preparing for operations around Taiwan, as fears of PLA aggression persist following Taiwan’s National Day celebrations on 10 October.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by Newsweek
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North Korea Alters Constitution, Abandons Reunification With South
On 7 October, North Korea’s parliament - The Supreme People’s Assembly - convened to formalize Kim Jong Un’s changes to its constitution. One of the alterations changes language that alludes to inter-Korean relations and the possibility of reunification.
On 9 October, North Korea announced it would cut-off rail and roadways to the South. The North has been bolstering border defenses since January 2024.
Why This Matters
The seemingly minor change to North Korea’s constitution signals the deterioration of inter-Korean relations. In 1991, both Koreas signed an agreement that defined their existence as a “provisional special relationship,” and that both sides would mutually work towards reunification.
That agreement also facilitated the mutual recognition of governments and was a formal pledge to refrain from military aggression. Now, as North Korea changes its Article 9 verbiage, a peaceful Korean peninsula looks less and less likely.
Article 9 of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea constitution currently states that it seeks to achieve socialism “in the northern half of Korea” and seeks “reunification on the principle of independence, peaceful reunification, and great national unity”.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by South China Morning Post
Coverage by CNN
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United Kingdom Urges Former Taiwanese President To Postpone Visit
On 12 October, the UK Foreign Office asked for the former Taiwanese president - Tsai Ing-wen - to postpone her visit to the United Kingdom. The UK’s new Foreign Secretary David Lammy is set to visit China next week and they want to avoid angering the CCP by entertaining Taiwan.
Why This Matters
The minor snub shows an interesting side to western commitments to Taiwanese sovereignty. In a security sense, the US-led anti-CCP alliance is a staunch supporter of Taiwan. When it comes to politicking, the snub shows that China still demands a better seat at the table.
Tsai’s visit to the UK is just one stop on her European tour. It is her first international tour since leaving office. Tsai’s presidency marked a new era of Cross-Strait politics in which Taiwan would be openly against reunification with China.
The announcement - and the snub - are highlighted by Taiwan’s recent National Day celebrations. Concerns persist that China may launch large-scale military operations around Taiwan.
Want To Read More?
Coverage by The Guardian
US urges restraint following National Day by Focus Taiwan
President Lai resists CCP threats by BBC
End Brief
That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.
Once again, thank you so much for reading.
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See you tomorrow morning,
Nick