Pacific Weekly (9-15 December 2024)

SECDEF visits Japan, the Chinese conclude large-scale maneuvers around Taiwan, and Biden extends a US-Chinese technology partnership. Plus more...

Author

Nick
December 15, 2024

Pacific Weekly

Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 9 - 15 December 2024

Bottom-Line Up Front:

1. The Missile Defense Agency successfully tested Guam’s air defenses. The Aegis system successfully intercepted a mock ballistic missile 200 NM off of Guam’s coast. The achievement is a major milestone in the development of Guam’s defense infrastructure.

2. China conducted multi-day maneuvers around Taiwan. The drills were reportedly the largest in “decades,” and were not announced by China. Beijing also did not give the maneuvers a designation, and said it would pursue future exercises however and whenever it wishes.

3. The US and China extended a Science and Technology agreement. The agreement, originally signed in 1979, allegedly improves cooperation while reducing national security risks. China has conducted technology theft for decades; efforts which have accelerated the PLA’s rapid growth and capabilities.

4. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Japan’s Prime Minister and Defense Minister. The officials celebrated the US-Japanese strategic partnership and highlighted the mutual commitment to a “free and open” Pacific. Japan is one of the US’s core allies against China’s growing aggression.

Missile Defense Agency Tests Aegis Ashore In Guam; China Responds

Summary
On 10 December, the US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) successfully conducted the first live intercept of a ballistic missile target from Guam. The mission was designated as Flight Experiment Mission-02 and is an critical progression of Guam’s air defense capabilities. China questioned the capability of the Aegis system in a Global Times propaganda piece, stating the tests do not reflect the realities of combat.

A new study by Stimson suggests US airfields in the Pacific remain vulnerable to Chinese missile attacks and first strikes at the outset of conflict.

Findings

  • Execution: The Aegis Guam System successfully integrated with the new AN/TPY-6 radar and the Vertical Launching System to fire a Standard Missile-3 Block IIA (SM-3). The SM-3 intercepted a mock ballistic missile (dropped from a C-17) 200 nautical miles northeast of the island.

  • Guam Defense System: The GDS is an ongoing Department of Defense project that will eventually establish a joint Enhanced Integrated Air and Missile Defense system over the Marianas Islands. Currently, the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System is the core system being used for this endeavor.

  • Strategy: Guam is critical to the US Indo-Pacific strategy. Located well within the Second Island Chain, Guam is the heart of the Marianas Islands; US territories that have growing strategic significance. Currently, Tinian and Guam are benefitting from massive defense investiture so that US Navy and Air Force assets have a place to muster, resupply, and carry out operations into the First Island Chain (i.e. near China) in the event of conflict - Hence the need for a robust, advanced air defense infrastructure.

  • China: The CCP has questioned the effectiveness of the GDS. China is the primary threat in the region, and its growing arsenal of hypersonic ballistic missiles has been driving massive defense investiture to US facilities in the Pacific, particularly air defense ones. The Global Times pointed out that while the test reflects a tactical capability, it does not address the classic air defense dilemma:

“…under large-scale saturation attacks, it is not realistic for the anti-missile system to intercept all targets. More advanced ballistic missiles can maneuver in flight and can deploy decoys, which will further lower the probability of interception.”

Zhang Xuefeng, CCP Military Analyst, Global Times

Why This Matters
While a major achievement for the MDA and a sign of progress for the Guam Defense System, Chinese observers do point out a critical concern in the air defense community.

Air defense systems can only fire so many projectiles for intercept before requiring a reload; this brings the question of target saturation into view. That idea is simple, an adversary will fire more missiles at a target than an air defense launcher or battery can shoot down at one time.

In the event on conflict in the Pacific, US bases, airfields, and ports risk attacks by China’s massive missile arsenal. According to a 2021 study by the US Army University Press, the PLA Rocket Force have more than 2,300 ballistic missiles, with that arsenal growing in size and capability.

China Concludes Large-Scale Maneuvers Around Taiwan

Summary
From 9-13 December, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy, Coast Guard, and Air Force vessels conducted large-scale maneuvers around Taiwan. Taiwanese defense forces were placed on high alert. Reuters and CNN reported that these are the largest maneuvers in “decades” and DW claimed more than 90 Chinese warships took part in the exercise.

Findings

  • Rehearsals: China’s vessels, and hundreds of aircraft sorties, simulated attacks on ships and blockading sea routes. In a real conflict, these actions will be critical criteria for the PLA beginning a ship-to-shore operation against Taiwan.

  • Strategy: Taiwanese officials claimed the PLA maneuvers were a show of force intended to draw a “red line” for President-elect Donald Trump as he builds his Indo-Pacific strategy. While the maneuvers are in-line with Xi Jinping’s precedent of applying pressure on Taiwan, they diverged from some norms. China did not announce the exercises or provide an operational designation (i.e. Joint Sword-2024C). This is significant, as it indicates the likelihood of a real conflict being unannounced and supported by a sudden cut-off of diplomacy.

Why This Matters
These maneuvers are almost certainly a rehearsal; a small part of a cohesive operational plan that involves a sudden strike on Taiwanese defenses through an air campaign, naval blockades, missile strikes, electromagnetic attack, and an invasion by ground forces.

China’s initial silence and cryptic statement at the conclusion of the maneuvers indicate and invasion of Taiwan will coincide with a sudden cut-off of diplomacy with Beijing, adding to the confusion and friction in the hopes of slowing a US-led military response.

Biden Administration Extends Science And Technology Agreement With China

Summary
On 13 December, the US State Department announced it has extended the 1979 Science and Technology Agreement (SAT) with China by 5 years. The State Department claims the agreement extends protections to intellectual property, researcher safety, and data transparency. It claims the protections are intended to enhance basic technological research and development while minimizing risks to national security. The agreement does not include cooperation on emerging technologies, such as AI.

Findings

  • Technology Theft: China has been accused of intellectual property theft related to defense and industrial technologies for decades. For example, in 2019 the Center for a New American Security warned that Chinese theft had led to the PLA’s development and manufacture of advanced fighters based on American F-35s and F-22s. In 2023, the FBI warned that Chinese intellectual property theft remains a critical national security concern.

  • Military Parity: A 2017 report by RAND Corporation, indicated China was approaching parity with the US military in key domains, such as air base attack, air superiority, anti-surface warfare, submarine warfare, and cyberwarfare. Today, China has arguably surpassed the US in some of these capabilities.

  • Relations: US-Chinese relations remain tense and complicated. Before the extension, Biden pardoned 3 Chinese spies. Before that, Biden restricted exports of microchip products to 140 Chinese companies. Xi has also indicated an alleged willingness to “mend ties” with the incoming Trump administration. Trump, who ahs reportedly invited Xi to his inauguration, has stated he will institute a tough China policy that includes extensive economic tariffs.

Why This Matters
The extension of the Science and Technology Agreement appears to be a “good faith” gesture, one that also covers the US government's inability to effectively enforce intellectual property rights or curb China’s advancements in defense and technology through theft and espionage.

China has achieved significant defense and economic growth, largely due to U.S. investments throughout the Cold War—a relationship initially framed as an anti-Soviet partnership that eventually evolved into the great power competition we are witnessing today.

It remains unclear how Trump will approach relations with China. Observing Beijing’s continued economic growth, Trump has prioritized securing the best possible “deal” from US-China business ties. Taiwan’s success in microchip manufacturing has also influenced his policy perspective on the island, with Trump suggesting that Taiwan should be paying higher costs for US defense products and security assurances.

Unless China offers specific economic and security guarantees, it is likely that Trump’s administration will continue following established precedent —maintaining openness to diplomacy while ensuring continued military aid to Taiwan as a deterrent against a potential Chinese invasion.

SECDEF Meets With Japanese Officials To Promote Partnerships

Summary
On 10 December, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III met with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Defense Minister Gen Nakatani to discuss the US-Japan alliance as Donald Trump prepares to take office. The officials celebrated the achievements during Austin’s tenure, which included expanded defense industrial agreements and deeper cooperation with Australia, the Philippines, and South Korea.

Findings

  • Indo-Pacific Security: The US and Japan are the strongest pair of partners in the Indo-Pacific who resolutely stand against China’s growing ambitions - and aggressions - in the region. Japan’s commitment to peace and security in the region led to a Japanese-Filipino defense cooperation agreement under Austin’s tenure. Austin also helped coordinate greater NATO involvement in the region as Russian, Chinese, and North Korean partnerships grow.

  • US Military Drawdown: Despite the US and Japan sharing security concerns, Japan is seeking a drawdown of US forces in some of its territories. In Okinawa, Marine Corps units are beginning to relocate to Guam due to public pressure. Okinawa is home to 70% of US forces in Japan despite it making up less than 1% of Japanese territory. Okinawa is a vital yet vulnerable location for US forces in the First Island Chain.

Why This Matters
The US-Japanese alliance is crucial for maintaining stability and security in the Indo-Pacific region. As two of the world's largest economies and military powers, their partnership serves as a counterbalance to China’s growing influence and aggression. The alliance strengthens regional defense capabilities through shared military commitments, joint exercises, and strategic cooperation with other key allies like Australia, South Korea, and the Philippines. Additionally, Japan's role as a democratic and economic leader in the region enhances the broader international order, supporting peace, security, and the rule of law.

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

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See you tomorrow morning,

Nick