Good morning and happy Sunday,

This is Pacific Weekly, a special edition of The Intel Brief intended to keep you updated on events across the hotly contested Indo-Pacific region.

Reporting Period: 9-15 September 2024

Bottom Line Up Front:

Brief’s from the past week: Monday, Thursday

The Joint Air And Navy Drills Between China And Russia

On 9 September, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced it will hold military drills with Russia this month. The exercise, dubbed North-Joint 2024, will focus on aerial and naval operations around the Sea of Japan and Sea of Okhotsk.

On 10 September, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that the two partner navies commenced Ocean-2024, a joint strategic exercise. Ocean 2024 is Russia’s largest naval exercise in decades and includes drills in the Pacific and Arctic Oceans as well as the Mediterranean, Caspian, and Baltic Seas.

Why This Matters

This announcement comes as Chinese aggression has been growing in the region. Just as the American-led alliance is growing against China, Beijing is looking to counter by developing allies of its own.

This year, Russia and North Korea formally committed to a mutual defense pact and now China is looking to grow ties with those partners.

Cooperation between China and Russia complicates the security situation in the Pacific, but also globally. If Russia becomes a formal defense partner of China, it could protect China from US-led intervention during a Taiwan or South China Sea conflict. Why? Because war with Russia and China in the Pacific would mean a war for NATO in Europe.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by CNA

• Coverage by The Moscow Times

China Says Relations With The Philippines At A Crossroads

In a People’s Daily article (the CCP newspaper), China stated the Philippine’s should consider the Sino-Filipino relationship as being “at a crossroads.” During the past few months, various encounters in the Philippine Sea have led to the major deterioration of Chinese and Filipino relations.

Why This Matters

In June 2024, a PLA Navy vessel rammed a Filipino resupply ship in the Second Thomas Shoal; a small island in the Philippine’s economic exclusion zone that China claims as its sovereign territory. The incident left several Filipino’s injured and led to a navigation and resupply agreement between the two nations.

China quickly violated the terms of that agreement and has maintained their policy of harassing Filipino military vessels in the region.

Now, relations between the two nations are approaching formal hostilities. The Philippines have accommodated diplomatic dialogue with the Chinese despite their perpetual escalations. Now, the CCP is threatening another strategic dilemma that the Filipino’s are unlikely to work around.

The United States is bound by a 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty to protect the Philippines.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Reuters

China’s Exports Grow, Beating Expectations

On 9 September, CNBC reported that China’s exports grew 8.7% in August while imports fell below expectations. China’s exports were forecasted to grow 6.5% from last year, a 2.2% margin.

China’s exports to the US, EU, and Russia all grew since last year.

Why This Matters

China is facing various economic problems despite a CCP-led narrative that China is growing and stronger than ever. China faces a local banking crisis, a real-estate crisis, and a declining dominance in the rare earth market.

So how are their exports going up? Experts think this is because Chinese manufacturers are rushing out products before a wave of tariffs hits the country. This is China’s effort to push products while it struggles to find new customers.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by CNBC

• Coverage by Reuters

Taiwanese Fighter Crashes During Training

On 10 September, a Taiwanese Mirage 2000 crashed during a training exercise after it lost power in flight. The pilot safely ejected and was recovered two hours later.

Why This Matters

The incident is not a major loss for Taiwan. The pilot survived and the Mirage 2000 is no longer Taiwan’s most advanced or capable fighter.

However, the incident raises concerns about Taiwan’s maintenance and readiness - major factors in managing a world-class air force that is anticipating conflict. Secondary concerns are Taiwan’s command and control capabilities which would ultimately attempt to aid the pilot in-flight and coordinate search and rescue.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by AP News

China Looking To Close Navy, Carrier Gap With United States

On 10 September, Business Insider reported on China’s Fujian aircraft carrier and how its sea trials display new capabilities for the PLA Navy. The Fujian is China’s third aircraft carrier and is the third largest in the world (behind the American Nimitz and Ford-class carriers).

The Fujian uses a catapult system to launch the 60 aircraft it carries quicker and more efficiently. The Fujian’s weakness, however, is its dependence on traditional fuel supply (the US use nuclear power).

The Fujian has conducted sea trials since May and the results have led to China doubling-down on Navy ship production as they look to surpass the US Navy in size and capability.

Why This Matters

The Chinese have 3 aircraft carriers to America’s 11, but China’s advantage is its ship production and having a local area of operations. American Navy vessels are experiencing backed up maintenance schedules and redeployments around the globe.

In the event of a Taiwan or South China Sea scenario, China could have an advantage if American ships are deployed elsewhere.

The Fujian itself greatly increases China’s ability to project air power at sea by increasing the range of operations and letting the carrier group act independently of the mainland.

Want To Read More?

• Coverage by Business Insider

(Thanks to our reader, Otto, for this tip)

End Brief

That concludes this edition of Pacific Weekly.

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Enjoy your Sunday,

Nick