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Pacific Weekly (19-25 August)
Weekly update of activity in the First Island Chain
Nick
August 25, 2024
Pacific Weekly
Good morning and happy Sunday,
This is Pacific Weekly - a special weekly report on activity from the Indo-Pacific’s First Island Chain.
Reporting Period: 19-25 August
Bottom Line Up Front:
1. The US and South Korea began exercise Ulchi Freedom Shield 24. This iteration is bigger than last year and North Korea has called it an invasion rehearsal.
2. Taiwan’s air defense force conducted a rare live-fire drill. They destroyed 3 drones with no errors.
3. Germany has two ships scheduled to transit the Taiwan Strait in September. China has warned Germany to avoid the strait, saying transit would violate their sovereignty.
4. Xi Jinping hosted Fiji’s Prime Minister Rabuka in Beijing for a week. The CCP is looking to grow its strategic relationship with Fiji, most likely due to their geographic location relative to Australia, New Zealand, and Hawaii.
5. Australia and Norway’s Kongsberg Defence will jointly manufacture ASMs and JSMs in Australia. Manufacturing of the missiles will begin in 2027.
The US and South Korea Began Exercise Ulchi Freedom Shield
On 19 August, bilateral exercise Ulchi Freedom Shield 24 began in South Korea. The exercise runs until 29 August. The US and South Korean forces are conducting live fire drills, ground maneuvers, simulation-based command and control (C2) operations, and civil defense drills.
This year, the exercise includes 48 field-training exercises including an amphibious landing.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol pointed out the relevance of the exercise due to the changing nature of warfare. He also cited Ukraine and the Middle East as examples of how sudden conflicts can begin.
Why This Matters
North Korea has denounced the exercise and styled them as invasion rehearsals. Last year’s iteration prompted North Korean ballistic missile launches as a show of force.
This year’s iteration is more relevant than ever due to Russian and North Korea signing a mutual defense pact in June. When Putin travelled to North Korea to sign that deal, it was his first visit in 20 years. The last time North Korea and Russia had such a pact was in 1961 during the Soviet Union’s peak.
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Taiwan’s Air Defense Unit Excels In Live-Fire Drills
On 20 August, Taiwan’s Air Defense and Missile Command conducted live-fire anti-aircraft strikes with Patriot II and Tien Kung III missiles. The air defense forces destroyed three drones that were roughly 18 miles from the observation line.
This was the first time since 2012 that drills at the Jiupeng Base were open to media, signaling a warning to China.
Why This Matters
Exercises like this are rare because they are expensive and require detailed planning and coordination. This exercise gives Taiwan’s air defenders valuable experience in testing their individual skills and applying them quickly to a kill chain.
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Coverage by Taipei Times
Coverage by AP News
China Warns Germany Not To Send Ships Through Taiwan Strait
On 19 August, China warned Germany not to send its warships through the Taiwan Strait, the waterway between China and Taiwan. If the ships travel through the strait, it would be the first time Germany military vessels have done so since 2002.
The German ships, frigate Baden-Wuerttemberg and replenishment ship Frankfurt am Main, are awaiting orders. They are scheduled to transit the strait in September.
China perceives the possible transit as a violation of Chinese sovereignty and interference in domestic affairs, a jab at Taiwan by implying they do not retain their own sovereignty.
Why This Matters
There is no telling what China’s response could be. China’s Shandong Carrier Strike Group and other PLA assets have conducted multiple exercises around Taiwan this year. Additionally this year, Taiwan has experienced almost-daily incursions by the PLA into their airspace and territorial waters.
Should the ships transit the strait, it is likely that China will conduct a some type of military display.
Germany’s potential transit is a message: NATO powers intend to be more involved in the tense Indo-Pacific region. The US-led alliance is intent on deterring a Chinese seizure of Taiwan and maintaining a free, open, and peaceful Pacific.
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Coverage by Newsweek
Xi Jinping Hosts Fiji’s Prime Minister As China Looks To Boost Ties
On 20 August, Xi Jinping hosted Prime Minister Rabuka of Fiji in Beijing. The island nations, which sits east of Australia, is open to closer ties with China. Xi Jinping pledged to strengthen their bilateral relations.
China’s Premier Li Qiang said China will increase imports from Fiji. The CCP is also going to invest in Fiji’s economy by pushing $20 million into the government’s budget.
Rabuka has taken a more cautious line over China's growing security interests in the Pacific, praising Fiji's warming ties with Beijing while saying he preferred to deal with democratic "traditional friends" on security.
Why This Matters
Fiji is of little economic or political importance. The island nation’s key industries are tourism and sugar. Their geographic location, however, is critical.
Fiji sits nearly 1,720 miles east of Australia and 3,150 miles southwest of Hawaii. Part of China’s long-term strategy could be to integrate security ties with Fiji and get Chinese troops, missiles, aircraft, or naval vessels stationed there. Even bilateral military exercises would give the PLA cause to venture into the region.
Prime Minister Rabuka’s week-long tour of Beijing, which included multiple visit with high-level CCP officials, indicate China’s strategic interest in the island nation.
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Coverage by VOA
Australia To Manufacture Norwegian Missiles, Boost Supply Chain
On 22 August, Australia announced it will jointly manufacture long-range Naval Strike Missiles (NSM) with Norway’s Kongsberg Defence. Australia is contributing $574 million to build a manufacturing facility with Kongsberg at Newcastle Airport. Production will begin in 2027. This is Kongsberg’s only site outside of Norway of this type.
The partners will also manufacture Joint Strike Missiles (JSM) at the facility. The JSM is the only strike missile that can be carried by the F-35 variants.
Australia said they are hoping to address AUKUS supply chain issues in the region. The US Marines use the ASM for anti-ship operations, and both Australia and the US are F-35 users.
Why This Matters
Kongsberg’s ASM is a versatile weapon system. It is capable of striking both surface and land targets up to ranges of 100 nautical miles (the unclassified range provided by Kongsberg).
The ASM also has sea-skimming capabilities and terminal maneuverability, both of which make the missile harder to detect and track.
Bad news for China’s growing navy.
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(Thanks to one of our readers for this source!)
End Brief
That concludes this Sunday SITREP. I hope you enjoyed it. The Indo-Pacific is an increasingly relevant region due to mounting Chinese aggression and, in Xi Jinping’s mind, a ticking strategic clock.
You’ll get your Monday morning brief tomorrow right @ 0630 ET, bright and early.
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Thanks for reading,
Nick